Horse Antepost
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02 Jun 11
16:58
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Date Joined:
20 Sep 06
personally I tend to find theres so much hype around these races I think you do well
just to take a step backwards, and try to analyse the leading contenders with your own eyes,
rather than listen to another bit of aiden o brien p.r. or some other piece of hyperbole.
OAKS
BLUE BUNTING:
surprised me when winning the guineas as only noticed her on the line. what surprised me
even more was when I saw she was by dynaformer, a very good influence indeed for stamina, who has produced
the st leger winner in lucarno. I'll be excited to see tomorrow just how much she improves for the step up in trip,
it could well be a huge amount.
she could turn out to be a very exceptional horse indeed over middle distances,
a match for the colts in time, and I expect her to win. the main concern would be the track and the fact that she could ideally
do with a drop of rain, which seems unlikely.
WONDER OF WONDERS
As many have pointed out this filly has a fantastic pedigree, she's bred to win an Oaks being by an Oaks runner up out of Kingmambo,
but was she that impressive at Chester? I'm not so sure. Certainly she didn't take the breath away so much that I felt her current price
offers any real value. I wouldn't be surprised to see her win, we've already seen how much improvement O'brien can get with his three
year olds at this stage of the season. Just I don't feel she offers any value.
ZAID AL BOLGAN
For me this was easily the most impressive winner of the trials and her current price looks too big. She oozed class at Lingfield and although apparently
the time wasn't that great to back that up, I seem to recall Midday winning the Lingfield Oaks trial in similar fashion without doing anything special
on the clock, and we've all seen what she's done subsequently. For me she rates the main danger to the favourite, and a decent each-way alternative.
BEATRICE AURORE
Won the same Oaks trial at Goodwood that last years Oaks winner Snow Fairy won, but without being anything like as impressive. I feel she can grab a place but difficult to see her winning.
MISTY FOR ME
Another from the all-conquering Ballydoyle operation. This extremely game filly has similar form credentials to the favourite on a line through Together, however Blue Bunting looks like she has more class for me.
To sum up Blue Bunting will be hard to beat, although Wonder of Wonders and Zaid Al Bolgan could be anything.
Back with the Derby picture later.
just to take a step backwards, and try to analyse the leading contenders with your own eyes,
rather than listen to another bit of aiden o brien p.r. or some other piece of hyperbole.
OAKS
BLUE BUNTING:
surprised me when winning the guineas as only noticed her on the line. what surprised me
even more was when I saw she was by dynaformer, a very good influence indeed for stamina, who has produced
the st leger winner in lucarno. I'll be excited to see tomorrow just how much she improves for the step up in trip,
it could well be a huge amount.
she could turn out to be a very exceptional horse indeed over middle distances,
a match for the colts in time, and I expect her to win. the main concern would be the track and the fact that she could ideally
do with a drop of rain, which seems unlikely.
WONDER OF WONDERS
As many have pointed out this filly has a fantastic pedigree, she's bred to win an Oaks being by an Oaks runner up out of Kingmambo,
but was she that impressive at Chester? I'm not so sure. Certainly she didn't take the breath away so much that I felt her current price
offers any real value. I wouldn't be surprised to see her win, we've already seen how much improvement O'brien can get with his three
year olds at this stage of the season. Just I don't feel she offers any value.
ZAID AL BOLGAN
For me this was easily the most impressive winner of the trials and her current price looks too big. She oozed class at Lingfield and although apparently
the time wasn't that great to back that up, I seem to recall Midday winning the Lingfield Oaks trial in similar fashion without doing anything special
on the clock, and we've all seen what she's done subsequently. For me she rates the main danger to the favourite, and a decent each-way alternative.
BEATRICE AURORE
Won the same Oaks trial at Goodwood that last years Oaks winner Snow Fairy won, but without being anything like as impressive. I feel she can grab a place but difficult to see her winning.
MISTY FOR ME
Another from the all-conquering Ballydoyle operation. This extremely game filly has similar form credentials to the favourite on a line through Together, however Blue Bunting looks like she has more class for me.
To sum up Blue Bunting will be hard to beat, although Wonder of Wonders and Zaid Al Bolgan could be anything.
Back with the Derby picture later.
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Zain for me myth[;)] have also backed Dancing Rain e/w,think the longer trip will suit.Hope you are well[;)]
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alright turnip mate, how's tricks
 dancing rain is the mordin tip. i'm not sure if that's an endorsement or not [smiley:crazy] |
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All good here myth[;)] over on purp now,with the rest of the lads,you should pop over,didn't know about the mordin thing
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A very fair summary, Mythical. Like you, I expect Blue Bunting to win, as she has clearly done exceptionally well from two to three and should improve considerably for the step up in trip. She's the one they all have to beat. Misty For Me is a doubtful stayer on pedigree and the others have to prove that they're up to Group 1 level. My only slight concern about Blue Bunting would be if the ground dried up significantly, but good ground should be fine (and will help to iron out the idiosyncrasies of the track).
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Yeah good luck tomorrow James hope everything is well with you mate.
Turnip this forum is dead these days, I'll have to join you guys on Purple! [:p] THE DERBY CARLTON HOUSE Ok this is boring tipping two favourites but this is my idea of the winner. The more I look at this race the more I come back to my orginal feeling that the Queen's horse is the one to be on. Quickened well last time and although the win wasn't particularly visually impressive, he looks a grand stamp of a horse, he simply oozes class on looks. According to Mordin his sectionals were appallingly slow, and he wouldn't have even won the Middleton. An interesting view and the injury is a concern, but sometimes you have to go with your gut and now he's got the all clear I can see the public getting stuck into him on the day. POUR MOI One of the main dangers to the favourite. Quickened impressively in his trial to come from last to first, and while on the book strictly speaking that form is nothing special, Brilliant trainer bullishly thinks he's his best ever chance of winning the Derby. Although if he is ridden in a similar fashion, which seems likely, he'll need a lot of luck in running. Even the brilliant Dancing Brave couldn't win from behind in the derby. RECITAL Interesting how bullish both the trainer and the jockey are about this horse. The reason I say that is because Fame and Glory was just as impressive in winning the Derrinstown as Recital was, but there was nothing like the kind of vibes coming out of the yard as there are about this one. And he was still sent off favourite against Sea the stars. The argument about the trainer having so many runners means he doesn't have one outstanding candidate is valid, but for me Ballydoyle are stronger this year than in recent seasons and for that reason he rates the main danger to the favourite. To sum up, I feel the market has got it about right and I don't buy into the argument that it's one of the most open derbys for years, although if I did have to nominate an outsider, it would surely be Masked Marvel. All in all the derby needs a story and Carlton House can provide just that. |
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mythical prince: the bullishness factor is interesting but you have got it wrong with Recital, imo.
I'd not noticed AO'B being especially bullish about Recital, and evidently nor had Coolmore's John Magnier, whose first colours are on Pour Moi. Two sets of connections have sounded bullish: Carlton House and Pour Moi. The others, at least to my ears, sound hopeful at best. |