Irish 1000 Guineas

Which one ???

HISTORY NOTE for me


gl

We are all in this TOGETHER.

I think this race is ripe for a big priced winner. 20/1 plus!

Do you ever go for something other than the favourite?

Majestic Dubawi and Ballabacker Lady are the outsiders I'm going with BTW.

If MD's last run was down to fitness and ground then it's run before that as a 2 year old gives it a real chance of being top class. It's a big if I suppose but then she is 50s on here.

I like Emiyna and Chrysanthemum but think it's a good race and wouldn't be surprised if any one of about ten won it!

I go for the horse that i believe to have the best form and best chance of winning cruise d,unlike you i believe that form is everything in making selections,i dont just back outsiders in the hope that better horses break there legs half way round and a 20/1 comes home

today i had a very nice treble with Rocket Man 4/6 Goldikova 4/5 so you think 1/4 they all might be odds on but,but they all p1ssed it and i won a very nice stack of cash thank you very much what have you won today......? i'm guessing nothing

Looked a remarkably similar effort to Blue Bunting at Nmkt & on that basis must have a great shout in the Oaks

Misty

Oops.  I watched the race on Rte.ie live.  I should have listened to the interviews.

I have all of those in my list except for Goldi.

Canford will beat her at Royal Ascot imo, but she is likely to win again back in France for sure.

Its simply about making money for me cruise and you may not be happy with a just under 4/1 treble,but i am delighted with it sir and the big difference is that i would guess that you are playing with pence and pounds whereas i am playing with thousands and tens of thousands so throwing it away on 70/1 shots is not for me,i have already made this game pay for me so its all about keeping the easy money flowing in and not chasing the fortune that i have already succeeded in and form reading your posts from time to time i would guess that you certainly dont make this game pay for you,but i admire your effort,keep the dream alive sir

Nobody stakes stupid amounts on 100/1 plus shots FormMan. I have some chunkier bets for me (400quid on Hawkeyethenoo at 10/1 ish last time out for example) but I don't back odds on. I had my fingers burned by Six Perfections in the Irish 1000 a few years ago. If you are backing horses at 10/1 that are in reallity 6/1 shots you will make profit. It's irrelevant whether you are playing with thousands/hundreds or pence. The principle of making profit is just the same.

I do back favs when I fancy them but what I don't do is call myself FormMan and post in nearly every thread how much I fancy the favourite. Which is what youe seem to do. Interestingly last time we disagreed I was suggesting that Premio Loco was a decent place bet in the Lockinge and you were certain that the top 3 would be filled by horses from the head of the market. What heppened? Canford won and then 25/1 and 33/1 (Premio Loco) shots paid the place money. It seems your idea of reading form is to just follow the book and assume it's between those at the head of the market. You are happy to gloat when you are right when backing the blindingly obvious and you are happy to put down people who are backing 50/1 shots but I don't remember you coming back to the Premio Loco thread to say you were wrong.

I was wrong in this thread at 50/1 for a very small loss, big deal I'd suggest that outcome was more likely than me being right. However you said that Together was a sure thing and it gets beat so you show up here after the race to aftertime some **** mugs treble that made you a load of dough without even the hint that you may have lost in the race that the thread was actually about.

I didn't say you were a loser. An aftertimer that gloats about the blindlingly obvious is what I said[;)].

All the same I'm boring myself never mind you so good luck with your punting also.

we both agree that the Rocket Man,Goldikova,So you think treble was blindingly obvious and highly unlikely to fail so at 4/5 4/6 1/4 is just simply buying money,very very easy money and every week there is easy money like this to be had so whats the harm in turning it down,i would give odds on backing another go if i were you,make the right selections and its very hard to fail.
as i posted earlier today Hills opened up 8/11 on Sarafina today,it does not get any esier than that

first 3 in 2000 had a prior run this season, 2and 3rd in 1000,winners of irish 1000/ 2000 came on bundles for their first run , surely that shows that trainers really should use these trials eg craven , nell gwyn  in future.

Thanks sint, I'll take a look at the stats.  Backing O'Brien-trained fillies for the Guineas without a prior run in a prep race has certainly been very unproductive in the last few years:
2004 Necklace (8/1) 12th of 16 (beaten 10 lengths)
2006 Rumplestiltskin (3/1 fav) 7th of 13 (beaten 11 lengths) and Race For The Stars (12/1) 8th of 13 (beaten 12½ lengths)
2008 Kitty Matcham (8/1) 9th of 15 (beaten nearly 6 lengths)
2011 Misty For Me (9/1) 11th of 18 (beaten 18 lengths)

The only ones that have run well in the Guineas (Virginia Waters, Heart Shaped and Together) had run in a prep race beforehand, but that's not a great guide either as some of his Guineas runners that had run in a prep race actually regressed (in terms of form) in the Guineas, eg Theann (a good third to Arch Swing in her prep race but beaten 10 lengths in the Guineas), Savethisdanceforme (second in her prep race but beaten 8½ lengths in the Guineas) and Devoted To You (second in her prep race but beaten 30 lengths in the Guineas).  In addition, several O'Brien fillies who were top class as juveniles failed to get to the Guineas due to injury or other 'setbacks', eg Listen, You'resothrilling, Lillie Langtry, Cabaret, You'll Be Mine.

O'Brien has managed to lift the 2000 Guineas with colts making their seasonal debut in the race (most recently with Footstepsinthesand in 2005, George Washington in 2006 and Henrythenavigator in 2008), but he is unable to achieve the feat with fillies.

I'm not sure whether this is terribly helpful for antepost punters, though: unfortunately one doesn't know (months in advance) whether or not an O'Brien-trained filly is going to run in a prep race before the Guineas.  Virginia Waters proved that O'Brien is capable of winning the 1000 Guineas with the right filly (and Together very nearly did the trick this year), but he has had several other well-fancied runners who have run poorly.  The percentage call is to give his fillies the 'swerve' as far as the Guineas is concerned...

I agree about Together's campaign last year.  Even more noteworthy is the fact that O'Brien often introduces his smartest fillies in the same maiden race at Naas, a 6f fillies maiden in the middle of May.  In recent years his runners in that race have included Rumplestiltskin (2005), Heart Shaped (2008), Lillie Langtry (2009) and Together (2010).  This year he won the race with a filly by Galileo called Maybe, who won easily by 4½ lengths and looks a smart prospect.  I wouldn't back her for the Guineas at this stage though, for reasons outlined above.  Next stop for Maybe will presumably be the Coolmore-sponsored Listed race back at Naas over course and distance on 6th June, a race which was won by both Rumplestiltskin and Lillie Langtry.  Having said that the percentage call is to give his fillies the swerve as far as the Guineas concerned, if the right filly with the right profile comes along at the right price I'll still get involved (especially if there is likely to be a chance to lay off a much shorter odds)...  Time for a new thread...