Horse Antepost
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Any early thoughts ?
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Replies: 23
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sc williams looks to have brought bertoliver to the boil nicely....and down to a winning mark again..
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Racy shaped really well on first start for Kevin Ryan at York last week. Otherwise, Favourite Girl would be my outside choice. Plenty of speed and if granted a good draw could be worth backing if a decent price.
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Agree about Racy but in the same race Johannes was an even bigger eye-catcher for me. Mind you he often is
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Racy a NR ? All bar one bookmaker removed prices (Oddschecker)
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I like Ahtoug
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Johannes is all too often an eyecatcher. I think he needs them to go flat out over 5f to win over that trip, and Epsom will be too much of a speed test for him.
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I thought the same about Hawkeye last year - and he was desperately unlucky not to win.
Anyway with Racy not declared it's "all eggs in one basket" time for me. |
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DD
twice the price on here as any bookmakers ! Does that ring alarm bells ? Is it an intended runner? |
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Only a fiver on here at big odds so no cause to panic on that account. At least he's still entered for the race.
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Racecaller trends for the past 10 years of Epsom Dash:
Age (Win-Place-Runners) 3yo: 0-0-9 4yo: 1-5-39 5yo: 1-8-33 6yo: 4-7-39 7yo: 1-1-23 8yo+: 3-7-30 Horses aged 3 to 5: 2-13-81 Horses aged 6 or older: 8-15-92 Weight (Win-Place-Runners) Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-6-16 Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 3-10-55 Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 4-9-71 Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 2-3-31 No very strong trend on the weights carried though in recent years lower weights have fared better with 4 of the 5 last winners carrying 8-9 or less. Horses carrying 8-10 or more: 4-18-100 Horses carrying 8-9 or less: 6-10-73 Horses carrying a penalty: 0-3-12 Top weight: 453307375095 (0-4-11) Official Ratings Horses rated 100 or higher: 2-8-34 Horses rated 90 to 99: 5-12-89 Horses rated 89 or lower: 3-7-50 This race was changed from a listed handicap to class 2 in 2004, since then official ratings stats are: Horses rated 100 or higher: 1-3-17 Horses rated 90 to 99: 3-10-67 Horses rated 89 or lower: 3-7-50 In the past 3 years all 3 winners were rated 89 or lower and they also accounted for 7 of 12 places since 2008. Recent/Past Form 9 of 10 winners had run 1 to 4 times that season (exception had 7 runs) 7 of 10 winners had yet to win that season 9 of 10 winners had run in past 4 weeks 10 of 10 winners had run in at least 8 handicaps (winning at least 2) 10 of 10 winners had won over 5F 9 of 10 winners had won over 6F 9 of 10 winners had won a race worth 10K+ 8 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher 9 of 10 winners had contested a listed or group race Other Races Previous season's winner (Bertoliver): 5000048 (0-1-7) S. Norton Handicap winner (Sohraab): 1 (1-0-1) Queensferry Stakes winner (Masamah): 09 (0-0-2) Betfred Be Friendly Handicap winner (Confessional): 70 (0-0-2) Gosforth Park Cup winner (Captain Dunne): 00 (0-0-2) Investec Asset Management Handicap winner (Falasteen): 706 (0-0-3) 5 of 10 winners ran in Investec Asset Management Handicap, finishing 62733 4 of 10 winners ran in York’s Sportingbet.com Sprint, finishing 0830 3 of 10 winners ran in Chester Victor Chandler Handicap, finishing 915 3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Ayr Gold Cup, finishing 000 3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Coral Sprint Trophy, finishing 000 Trainers Dany Nicholls (4-5-36) has won 4 of the last 10 runnings, though he has saddled around 21% of the total runners in the race since 2001. Stuart Williams (2-2-5) has a fine record in this race, gaining 2 wins (33/1 & 7/1) and 2 places (20/1& 9/2) from 5 runners in the past 10 years. John Quinn (1-1-6) and Kevin Ryan (1-0-10) are the only other 2 trainers to have saddled the winner since 2001. Draw Horses draw 1 to 7: 1-9-70 Horses draw 8 to 14: 5-11-64 Horses drawn 15 to 20: 4-8-39 9 of 10 winners were drawn 8 or higher The only winner drawn lower than 8 was in 2002 when there was only 11 runners. Price 7 of 10 winners were priced between 7/1 and 16/1 No very strong trends on prices, though this is a race where we’ve seen a few upsets in the last 10 years, most notably last year with a 33/1 winner. The favourite (1-2-14) last won the race in 2001 and over the past 10 years the market leader shows a level stakes loss of 6.25. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: • Aged 6 or older • Carrying 8-9 or lower • Run 1 to 4 times this season • Had last run in past 28 days • Won over 5F and 6F • Won at class 2 or higher • Has run in a group or listed race • Finished in first 7 in Investec Asset Management Handicap at Epsom in April • Ran in Sportingbet.com Sprint and/or Chester Victor Chandler Handicap • Drawn 8 or higher • Trained by Dandy Nicholls or Stuart Williams |
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Grou[ Therapy been contesting g3 g1 over past 12months recently not been breaking used to be a prominent runner i know it has left top stable Noseda who knows the time of day just hope Barron can rekindle the spirit negative is top weight ......will be a play if the draw is favourable...
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sorry cant type Group Therapy
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Bertoliver 18/1 is too big to pass up considering Stu Williams record in the race and the horse's current OR
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Horse Age Wt Trainer Jockey OR NagMe
Captain Dunne (IRE) 20 6 9-10 T D Easterby 104 Group Therapy 35 6 9-10 T D Barron 105 Masamah (IRE) 31 5 9-5 K A Ryan 100 Masta Plasta (IRE) 21 8 9-1 D Nicholls 96 Take Ten 203 4 9-1 Mahmood Al Zarooni 96 Arctic Feeling (IRE) 35 3 9-0 R A Fahey 102 Drawnfromthepast (IRE) 21 6 8-13 Ed Walker 94 Johannes (IRE) 23 8 8-13 R A Fahey 95 Falasteen (IRE) 23 4 8-11 D Nicholls 92 Marine Commando 38 3 8-11 R A Fahey 99 Confessional 31 4 8-10 T D Easterby 92 Fathom Five (IRE) 31 7 8-10 D Nicholls 91 Favourite Girl (IRE) 21 5 8-10 T D Easterby 91 Judge 'n Jury 23 7 8-10 R Harris 91 Perfect Blossom 289 4 8-10 K A Ryan 91 Beat The Bell 21 6 8-9 T D Barron 90 Ahtoug 29 3 8-8 Mahmood Al Zarooni 94 Secret Millionaire (IRE) 23 4 8-8 Pat Morris 89 Crimea (IRE) 309 5 8-5 D Nicholls 86 Dubai Media (CAN) 28 4 8-5 E A L Dunlop 84 Duchess Dora (IRE) 23 4 8-5 J J Quinn 86 Sohraab 21 7 8-3 H Morrison 84 Strike Up The Band 21 8 8-3 D Nicholls 84 Bertoliver 22 7 8-2 S C Williams 83 Oldjoesaid 21 7 8-2 K A Ryan 83 Indian Trail 21 11 8-1 D Nicholls 82 Matsunosuke 142 9 8-1 Dr R D P Newland 82 Jamesway (IRE) 29 3 8-0 R A Fahey 89 La Fortunata 39 4 7-13 Mike Murphy 80 Estonia 29 4 6-10 M D Squance 65 Maximum field 19 (?) so Bert and a few others might miss out. |
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Bertie with Robinson on board looks the answer .. that Chester effort (think it was) looked very good.
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Apologies - looks like I posted the wrong decs
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A race where the draw and luck in running can be key, the most interesting to me is recent listed 2nd "Dubai Media" for Ed Dunlop.
Dandy likes to target the Epsom sprints and number 19 of the 21 left in "Indian Trail" might be worth an interest too, won the race in 2009 and more than likely Dandy has been campaigning him with his race in mind?. |
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also fits a lot of trends listed above does indian trail. got to wait for draw though imo.
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Re the DRAW, has it switched this year? Would we be looking for a low draw?
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town moor 02 Jun 11 15:17
Re the DRAW, has it switched this year? Would we be looking for a low draw? Epsom is left handed so I don;t think it changes |
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No change in the draw as it is a left handed course, still looking at horses drawn 8+. In the last ten years when the field has been 15+ no horse drawn 7 or lower has won.
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Strike Up The Band and Indian Trail both ew, both fit trends well
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Choker for us Indian Trail backers, the draw turning into a nightmare for a hold up horse, would have won handy if he got the breaks at a crucial time.
Ah well thats Epsom for you. |