Await the Dawn - Arc de Triomph

Unashamed market manipulation, COT.

Just do yourself a favor and get on So You Think.[;)]

BC classic imo. whats the difference in dates between the 2 this yr?

It'll just less than a month like usual I think

just checked its actually just over a month, 2nd oct and 5th nov. reasonable chance he could target both then.

Figgis

how could you accuse an old man of such a cynical practice?

This horse is amazing. He is only a couple fo pounds below So You Think on ratings and Timeform have a"p" for improvement alongside Await The Dawn.

Await The Dawn is due to have his next exercise canter in the Hardwick Stakes. Then his Arc price will fall to single figures.

He is still amazing value now - you can still get well over 33/1 on here.

Doubters should look at the replays of his last 2 runs - breathtaking.

He is a top class horse and I will not be laying off a bean of my investments until he is 6/1 or shorter.

Make no mistake at all Await the Dawn is the real thing.

Only kidding, COT, actually I agree about the horse.

What sort of time did he run last twice figgis?

I mean he won in a canter both times so if he ran a decent speed figure my confidence would grow.

He ran a good time at Leopardstown, it wasn't brilliant but I intended to back him in the Champion Stakes on the strength of it, as I took the view that it wouldn't be as difficult to win as most group 1s and his wfa allowance would give him a great chance, unfortunately he didn't run. Last time at Chester I rated him 12lbs higher, a proper group 1 speed figure, by my reckoning.

bl00dy hell!

What will he do when he comes off the bit.

Exciting times Figgis.

The nutter who laid me 80-100+ on here must be a chancer. A horse improving like that, trained by Aiden, and also a Giant's Causeway colt; real reason for Coolmore to go for broke and boost the stallion's credence.

I have to say I actually really fancy him for the Arc and would be having a bet at 20's. his price of around 40 or 50 is simply far too big. One thing is for sure, if you get 50/1 about horses with his sort of chance in the Arc you will not be getting poor in the long run. Rich maybe but not poor.

The main doubt is if he'll still be fresh by that stage of the season, but at those kind of prices you're quite right about the value.

Aidan has several older horses to fire at the Arc this year, not to mention what happens if one of his wins an Epsom or Irish Derby.

Await The Dawn is behind So You Think, St. Nicholas Abbey and the selected 3yo in that pecking order.

It's fascinating to wonder how he's going to split them up later in the season. One for the BC Classic, one for the BC Turf, and one for the Arc followed by Japan or Hong Kong.

Pecking order or no pecking order, if the horse keeps improving and looks the most likely winner of a race, he'll be running in it.

They can't all be 130+ horses, can they?

I guess that's the exciting part of following Ballydoyle this year; there's the very real possibility that they could absolutely clean up the older horse races.

Stateside the whole way with this lad ;)

ATD won't even win the Hardwicke imv, Roger Varian has the winner of that [;)]

Hacks up in the Group 2 Hardwicke then has his first crack at a Group1 in July back at Ascot in the King George IV. Backed him at 20/1 for it.

As for the Arc ... you'd be running a pretty hefty loss if you backed all Aidans runners in that race down the years. Im not sure he is even that keen on the race, same as Michael Stoute, they are more interested in winning the Group1s over here first and foremost.

jair

they can't all be 130 horses?

Well I am pretty certain Await The Dawn is - 126p with Timeofrm is a pretty clear indicator.

That So You Think already is. St Nicholas Abbey may just be the one that falls short.

Of course it might go a different way, but I prefer the ones that are up and coming rather than the ones who are on the comeback trail or already established. Await The Dawn is the one for the future.

I am not if the view that Aiden would be wholly opposed to winning an Arc again, and Await The Dawn looks to me to have all the right credentials.

Ina nay event when he canters home in the Hardwick, the 40+/1 will not be around; you'll do well top get half that price.

The way things are going it looks like Workforce for a repeat in the Arc unless the French come up with something or St Nicholas Abbey finally lives up to his reputation.

Nothing like shooting for the moon as when you miss it you might hit a cloud but with respect some things are just beyond reach.

Await the Dawn.? I'll  wake up and smell the roses before dawn AWTD won't even make the likes of the Arc and that's why it's such a huge price.


So You Think is a boat of a thing and will be found out. Gives me the distinct impression he will lack true pace in the best race when challenged.

A horse that couldn't win the Melbourne Cup no matter what the excuse near favourite for the Eclipse and the Arc is an insult to human intellegence.

Workforce is a Derby winner and Arc winner not some Aussie handicapper.

He could be an Ascot Gold Cup in the future but I extremely doubt he's cut much ice in the likes of the Eclipse apart from creating a good talking point.

"So You Think is a boat of a thing and will be found out."

"Gives me the distinct impression he will lack true pace in the best race when challenged."

"A horse that couldn't win the Melbourne Cup no matter what the excuse"

"some Aussie handicapper"

You dont know much about horses do you?

I like Rondetto;

He works out what he thinks and then decides how he can overstate his position to the maximum.

Horses rated mid 120'2 to 130's are unlikely be be "handicapers" though I would agree forcemajeure.

I like him too.......I need someone to lay my bets off.

Rondetto, you seem to inhabit a world where form remains static, by your logic there is no way Harbinger could have won the King George after winning a lowly group 3 like the John Porter. Also it remains to be seen if Stoute can get Workforce back to his Derby form.

nobody impressed by rewilding?

must confess nothing about await the dawn exactly takes the breath away- though he's clearly a very decent horse. I must be missing something, or maybe i'm the guy who laid 59s

Rondetto, you are coming out with some good ones recently, you can't be serious about So You Think?

Anyone who has a remote appreciation for Australian racing will understand how good So You Think is - just because he ran in the Melbourne Cup, you label him a handicapper? Have a look at his Cox Plate wins, or his Mackinnon or his Yalumba Stakes victories and try tell us the horse has no speed - the horse is a star over any trip.

To be honest, if So You Think is the horse he was Down Under, and his latest win would seem to confirm to this, then I think he'll go through the season unbeaten. Races from 10f to 12f are his for the taking - I'd be confident he'd mix it with your icon, Frankel, too over a mile if Aidan wanted.

might well be but he's a lay for sunday at the prices. with the weld horse in there he'll get a race, I think he'll win but 1.3 is very short for a group one race

the only horse he'll get a race from is await the dawn.

well quite possibly, but i'm hoping that he drifts in-running on sunday so can back him at a better price. don't like the idea of lumping on in a group one at 1.3. stingy layers

besides, isn't planteur being aimed at the princess of wales? not sure about so you think, but i'd rate him above await the dawn.

1/3 is a very short price for a Group One race but this is only a Group One in name only. Famous Name is not a genuine Group One performer.

Aidan will run half the field here, so in modern racing parlance, So You Think is a cert on Sunday. Only way he gets beat is if something completely unforseen happens.

I disagree about Famous Name not being a genuine Group 1 performer, in the last couple of years he has clocked some times that would've given him a serious chance in a Group 1. For me, Weld has underplayed the horse. On the other hand, maybe not over facing him in the past has helped prolong FN's career. Again, last time out he clocked a very good time, but now at the age of 6 he might not have many more runs like that left in him.

mp you sounds a bit nuts tbf. Why would you lay SYT ? Didn't you lay Recital the other week aswell ? Taking on these class horses is the quick way to the poor house.

Everyone remembers Famous Names unlucky run in the Frenhc Derby, ut since then he has been found it Group 1 compnay many times and has mopped up weak G3's in Ireland. I wouldn't be surprised if he managed to win a  G1 this season, due to the nautre of them in Ireland, and Weld managed to win a G1 with Chinese White last season,iirc, due to the weak nature of the races over there.

* found out in

I don't believe Famous Name reached his full peak until the age of 5, since then he has only run in two Group 1s, once in the Champion Stakes where he ran no kind of race, although, it was possible the ground was a bit fast for him that day, the other was at Woodbine, where the same was true, plus the travelling may have affected him. When he's won weaker races he's absolutely trounced the opposition in fast times, which leave me no doubts he would be effective in a Group 1, on his day. Maybe his best chance has gone but I'm sure if he can repeat his latest run it will take a top notch performance to beat him.

* Irish Champion Stakes

I like Rewilding too Mythical; but i prefer Await The Dawn as he is already top class, is improving rapidly and is unexposed. I like the 40+ price available still on here even more.

I like Rewilding too Mythical; but i prefer Await The Dawn as he is already top class, is improving rapidly and is unexposed. I like the 40+ price available still on here even more.

thanks for those kind comments sintonian. it's always good to know you can rely on your fellow forumites for hope and support [;)]

maybe I am nuts and I did lay recital, but this was with a view to laying off in-running. however I backed it at the wrong price and to compound things the race was completely uncompetitive and there was never an opportunity to get out inplay, i'm so sorry

of course this tattersalls group one on sunday is a very poor group one, that's putting it lightly. however I do take the view that famous name is a generally underrated horse and might, just might be able to give this hotpot a race on sunday. of course I will hardly be putting the family jewels on it.

we'll see if i'm nuts on sunday. but await the dawn only has to drift out a bit in-play for my scenario to work.

so you think even. and I don't see what damage laying at 1.3 is supposed to do anyway...

mp, my point is, you laid Recital when you thought before the race the opposition against him was weak. Now your might do the same again with So You Think ?

Im all for laying shorties, particularly odds-on, but why do it when you think it's a weak line up, and take on the class horses? Surely you want a couple of things in you favour other than just a short price. imo.

it's 1.3, likely to start 1.2 on the day sint. i'm so sorry i'm even thinking of laying at those prices. please forgive me.

as for recital, thanks for reminding me of the fact I laid him, but I never said the opposition was weak before the race. hindsight is a wonderful thing. but thanks for patronising me anyway.

the most likely scenario is that so you think's price will collapse during the race, but as he's likely to go off about 1.2 I don't see why there isn't a possibility of him drifting during the race. I hardly see that as a controversial statement. and the race in general may be weak, but the weld horse for me is a decent animal. I may well be wrong, to be honest i'm past caring and debating it with patronising people like yourself.

Seems I upset a few So You Think fans. I go by what I see and say it as I see it. Some eejit says I don't know much about horses but only time will tell.

I had a good look at him in Oz and sure he impressed but kid yourself not Down Under isn't exactly bursting at the seems with talent in middle distance races.

He reminds me a bit of Duke Of Marmalde who won 6 Group 1's but turned out to be nothing special when Zarkava made him and the others look like trees in teh Arc.

This fellow's big test was the Melbourne Cup and it wasn't the distance that beat him. He ran on very well that day he simply wasn't good enough. If anyone cares to have a look at the Aussie form book they'll find he ran right up  to his previous best that day on a line through the 4th.

At least I've looked which I doubt some have. To date he's won a very poor race in Ireland with most of the field not wanting to be finishing too close for future handicapping. The 2nd was runing on the A/w at Dundalk ffs.

What I'm saying is winning a Cox Plate by a length may entitle you to be favourite for the Ebor Handicap or a Group 3 perhaps. It doesn't make you an instant fav for the King George when you haven't even won over the trip.

What makes him fav is the name Aiden O'Brien and until he wins something worth talking about anyone who says he's a wonder horse by European standards is on a wing and a prayer.

we'll see today. Famous Name is a very reliable yardstck. He is around a 123 horse at his best. So if So You Think were to win easily by 8 lengths he would be a 135 horse and worthy favourite for the Arc.

Any comfortable victory would be a pretty decent effort, provided the race isn't just a tactical 3 furlong burn up at the end.

I wonder about So You Think too. The sire hasn't done much special over here yet. The horse itself seems to win group races easily from 9 to 14 furlongs.

Today will tell us quite a lot.

"What I'm saying is winning a Cox Plate by a length may entitle you to be favourite for the Ebor Handicap or a Group 3 perhaps"

He won two of them in his 5th and 10th start respectivly,

"Past winners of the Cox Plate included most of the champion racehorses of Australia and New Zealand. Many great horses have won the race twice, including Phar Lap, Flight, Tobin Bronze, Sunline, Northerly and Fields Of Omagh. The legend Kingston Town won the race three times."

as i said, you dont know much about horses do you.

Regards.....the eejit

Seriously just quit whilst your behind a bit and not a lot.

Rondetto Joined: 20 Jul 10
Replies: 576 21 May 11 06:24   

He reminds me a bit of Duke Of Marmalde who won 6 Group 1's but turned out to be nothing special when Zarkava made him and the others look like trees in teh Arc.

You actually believe Duke of Marmalade ran anywhere near to form in that Arc?

Rondetto, I'm sure you'll stand by your opinion, and punt So You Think accordingly but I can tell you here and now - you have this horse wrong completely wrong! In fact, you are so wrong, I can only conclude that you know very little about the horse or even racing in Australia.

I'm guessing you just looked at his races on YouTube and formed your opinion from that. But take it from someone who has been reasonably well immersed in the Australian Group One form the last few years, this horse is a racing machine. Never thought they'd produce one better than the Hussler so soon, but this one has it all. Don't mean to sound arrogant there either - I do enjoy the foreign Group One races, Australia included, ForceMajeure might know more than me, but I'm not surprised he agrees with the rest of us.

This fellow's big test was the Melbourne Cup and it wasn't the distance that beat him. He ran on very well that day he simply wasn't good enough. If anyone cares to have a look at the Aussie form book they'll find he ran right up  to his previous best that day on a line through the 4th.

Zipping tends to improve four or five pounds everytime when he runs at Flemington.

Also I disagree - it's a bad assumption to think his big test was the Melbourne Cup. Bart got Australia's two premier weight-for-age Group Ones out of the horse 3 days and 10 days prior to the Cup. Another thing I can't understand is how you can so confidently oppose this horse over 10f trips, because he was only third in the Melbourne Cup.

Have you not looked at his Cox Plates? Look at the one last year and leaves horses like Whobegotyou and More Joyous for dead - both serious animals themselves.

Also on the subject of Australian form, do you not remember, Haradusan, Choisir, Takeover Target, Miss Andretti, Scenic Blast coming over this side of the world and winning all before them?

Im not even claiming to be some kind of authority on horses, but i feel i need to stick up for Australian racing and our horses.

If i came on here and said Frankel was crap id be laughed down, i dont see how this is any different when the runs are on the board.

Let the naysayers have their piece.  Bad vibes do wonders for prics sometimes

testing

Even though that race wouldnt even pass as a group 1 in Australia, this result should keep the doubters at bay a while longer for So You Think

You get some very soft Group races in Ireland. Loads of them.