Horse Antepost
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Latest APOB quote courtesy of Sporting Life:
"There are still three weeks until the Derby, and we felt it important to reiterate that we have yet to decide exactly which horses will be heading to Epsom.
We are lucky to have several high-class three-year-old colts this year and it's likely we will also be represented in the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly.
The horses have all come out of their races in good shape and we'll be talking over where they go in the coming days.
We will make an announcement as soon as firmer running plans are in place."
So where does Roderic run next and indeed, will he have more than one run in the coming three weeks?
Irish Guineas - Always looked to me like he needed further than a mile but unless Zoffany is turned out for the Irish Guineas, then Ballydoyle don't really have anything else for the race. Zoffany's entered in the Greenlands next weekend as well as all the big sprints later in the season.
French Derby - This looks like the race for Roderic in my opinion, but if he does run in the Guineas, then there's no way he'll be turned out again eight days later. For this reason, and whilst acknowledging that this could be the race for him, I'm not convinced he'll go to Chantilly.
Epsom Derby - Lets assume Roderic runs well in the Irish Guineas, and provided exertions don't take their toll, he could then very easily take his chance at Epsom. Which I would mean the 75s available on here is massive.
Which leaves the conundrum of who will be their French Derby runner. Well Aidan always sends his Derrinstown runner to Epsom so rule out Recital. I don't think it'll be Roderic O'Connor. Zoffany is a sprinter / miler. And Treasure Beach looks a likely Epsom runner to me too - considering he raced over 12f in his trial. Master of Hounds goes back to USA. So assuming the above quote is to be taken at face value, and they do send something to Chantilly, I make Seville the favourite.
Aidan is right when he says he has a lot of high class 3yo colts but the trouble for him is that they all look like they might need 12f. He has no true miler in my opinion. ROC could end up being a 10f horse.
Anyway, after all that, I've backed Roderic at 75s for the Derby, and am quietly confident of getting a run for my money.
"There are still three weeks until the Derby, and we felt it important to reiterate that we have yet to decide exactly which horses will be heading to Epsom.
We are lucky to have several high-class three-year-old colts this year and it's likely we will also be represented in the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly.
The horses have all come out of their races in good shape and we'll be talking over where they go in the coming days.
We will make an announcement as soon as firmer running plans are in place."
So where does Roderic run next and indeed, will he have more than one run in the coming three weeks?
Irish Guineas - Always looked to me like he needed further than a mile but unless Zoffany is turned out for the Irish Guineas, then Ballydoyle don't really have anything else for the race. Zoffany's entered in the Greenlands next weekend as well as all the big sprints later in the season.
French Derby - This looks like the race for Roderic in my opinion, but if he does run in the Guineas, then there's no way he'll be turned out again eight days later. For this reason, and whilst acknowledging that this could be the race for him, I'm not convinced he'll go to Chantilly.
Epsom Derby - Lets assume Roderic runs well in the Irish Guineas, and provided exertions don't take their toll, he could then very easily take his chance at Epsom. Which I would mean the 75s available on here is massive.
Which leaves the conundrum of who will be their French Derby runner. Well Aidan always sends his Derrinstown runner to Epsom so rule out Recital. I don't think it'll be Roderic O'Connor. Zoffany is a sprinter / miler. And Treasure Beach looks a likely Epsom runner to me too - considering he raced over 12f in his trial. Master of Hounds goes back to USA. So assuming the above quote is to be taken at face value, and they do send something to Chantilly, I make Seville the favourite.
Aidan is right when he says he has a lot of high class 3yo colts but the trouble for him is that they all look like they might need 12f. He has no true miler in my opinion. ROC could end up being a 10f horse.
Anyway, after all that, I've backed Roderic at 75s for the Derby, and am quietly confident of getting a run for my money.
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Nice one Viva
 Just had a ponder, came up with the same idea re: Seville and posted it on the Seville thread, 2 minutes later I read this! Soumillon coming over for York might be relevant too, it's just everyone's presumed Epsom. |
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Seville looks one paced if anything cant see why they wouldnt step him up in trip he doesnt look to have the toe for the French Derby and will have a better chance at Epsom. Pour Moi looks ideal for the French Derby for the owner and Roderic a good Ballydoyle candidate for France also.
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If you bothered to scratch beneath the surface you'd realise that Andre Fabre tends to use the Greffulhe to test his potential 12f colts.
The last two he's won the Greffulhe with that he's sent to Chantilly have been beaten convincingly and subsequently been stepped up in trip. To suggest he looks 'ideal for the French Derby' shows zero knowledge of a trainer's methods, indeed only last year Fabre won the race with a horse stepping up from a mile after his Poulains win, Lope de Vega. I'm not on Pour Moi, but couple that knowledge with the fact that he's owned by Coolmore and there's a persuasive case for him to be running at 12f and not, as you suggest at 10.5f. But, of course, if you'd got Pour Moi in your book, you'd be arguing the opposite. |
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I think it's reasonable to think that Seville could go for the French Derby Jair. As I said elsewhere, I've watched his two most recent races and don't subscribe to the theory that the horse is one-paced. I actually think the horse is a bit suspect in a finish, and maybe people are confusing that with a lack of gears.
It's not unusual for APOB to use the Dante as a trial for the French Derby either, Cape Blanco and Saratoga Springs went there after winning it. Falstaff and Moscow Ballet were beaten in the race before going to Chantilly. One thing's for sure, Aidan's never run his best Derby candidate at York - ever! The declarations tomorrow or Monday for the Irish Guineas will be intriguing. If ROC lines up, then I think he could still run at Epsom. If he dosen't, then I guess Zoffany will be their number one hope there, and ROC could then go to France. Although, in my opinion, they are missing a trick of Roderic dosen't line up in the Derby. |
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One thing's for sure, Aidan's never run his best Derby candidate at York - ever!
Totally agree. Seems people haven't fully cottoned on to this... Regards Seville, the more I think about it the more I can see him going to Chantilly, despite O'Brien's post-race comments. Cape Blanco was injured in last year's Dante then ran a shocker in France, nearly none of their Dante runners have followed up with a good run next time out too. It would be sensible and would suggest they'd learnt something if they were kind to Seville the other day, there are after all bigger fish to fry later on. Not sure what to think about ROC but it's rare that their Guineas chosen 1 or 2 amount to nothing, so you'd hope Newmarket was a blip, as it was for many! He is flying under the radar somewhat and could be a forgotten horse. |
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Excellent read.
I agree with all and it does seem on historic patterns Recital is their no.1 Epsom runner, but I just wondered if he may swithc to France purely and simply because he appears to have speed for 10f whilst Seville does not. I suspect we'll see Recital at Epsom though. |
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Seems I got the dates for the French Derby wrong, it's June 5th rather than tomorrow week.
I think if Roderic O'Connor wins today, he'll enter the mix for both Derbys. I've backed him for Epsom at 69/1 and 74/1 but would feel now that the French Derby is the more logical choice for a Guineas winner. I think one of Seville or Pour Moi goes for the Jockey Club, possibly along with Roderic, and the remaining one heads up the Coolmore Epsom team alongside Recital and Treasure Beach. |
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Its young Joseph's 18th birthday on monday!!! Roderic Oconner is an early birthday present from dad.[;)][;)]
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what next then?
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anywhere Frankel doesnt go I reckon
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looks ideal for eclipse in july
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or French Derby?
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My feeling is that he'll go to France next up, but hope I'm wrong and he turns up at Epsom.
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Somehow thought the trainer would have that one spot on ... lol nepotism rules ok.
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Thanks for letting us know now eric
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Wouldnt put you onto a winner if I can help it mugboy.
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you couldn't put anyone onto a winner in a one horse race your terrible loser.
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I wonder if Aidan will be tempted to send Roderic to Epsom purely to give his son the experience of riding in the race? Or is that a little far-fetched.
I suppose if he wanted, Joseph could ride Memphis Tennesse or Treasure Beach but the fact he rides this all the time at Ballydoyle might have a bearing. He's also proven to the owners that the two are a winning combination. Logic dictates that the horse should go for the French Derby, but you never know there could be a twist or two yet. I wonder when can we expect a decision - will APOB leave it until Thursday before finalising plans or will there be an announcement before then? |
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I suspect they will make a late decision and I would be very surprised if ROC went to Epsom with Joseph in the saddle. The Guineas he won was very weak with few runners and he just jumped out and ran to the line. Epsom will be far more competitive and is a completley different track, as we know, so surely they'd have somenone else aboard if a horse as classy as ROC were to run.
They may give Joseph a ride on some rag, though.imo |
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wow....just had a thought viva.
can you imagine young joeseph riding roderic in that French Derby??? that race has been a 20runner+ roughhouse free for all since they chopped it to 10.5 furlongs. |
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he'd get shat on by the frenchies imo
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Normally a lot of hard-luck stories in the French Derby too, isn't there?
Bit of money on here for Roderic here this morning. It's not a foregone conclusion that he'll go to France yet. |
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biggest bet trying to get on the place is 100 quid on roderic for epsom
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Good read men
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Goes to French Derby with Ryan Moore aboard.
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