FRENCH 2000 GUINEAS Trends

Below are the 10 year trends for the Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas), which takes place at Longchamp on Sunday 15th May:

Age
Race for 3yos

Breeding
American bred: 5-4-37
Irish bred: 3-8-36
British bred: 2-2-24
French bred: 0-5-27
Other: 0-0-2
American bred horses have won 5 of last 10 from 29.4% of total runners
There seems to be more of a need for speed in a horse’s pedigree to win this with only 3 of the 10 sires having won over 1M 1F or further. 2 of the 3 exceptions had won a group 1 over 7F.
6 of 10 winners were sired by a horse who’d won over no further than 7F
3 of last 9 winners were by Danehill (another was by Danzig, Danehill’s father)
9 of 10 winners were born before 10th April

Recent Form
9 of 10 winners won on one or both of their first 2 runs as a 2yo
9 of 10 winners had had between 4 and 8 career starts
10 of 10 winners had run once or twice that season
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run in the past 50 days
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out
8 of 10 winners ran at Longchamp last time out
2 of 10 winners ran at Nad Al Sheba last time out (both Godolphin winners)
7 of 10 winners had won a group race (one exception was having first run in group race)
6 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a group 1 (other 4 were having first try in a group 1)
9 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F
5 of 5 French trained winners had won at Longchamp over 7F or 8F

Other Races
Prix De Fontainbleau winner (Glaswegian): 431173910 (3-2-9)
Prix Omnium II winner (Barocci): 261661 (2-1-6)
Prix Jean Luc Lagardere winner: (Wootton Bassett): 5123d9 (1-1-5)
Prix Djebel winner (Surfrider): 94302 (0-2-5)
Tetrarch Stakes winner (Imperial Rome): 84220 (0-2-5)
Prix Herod winner (Temps Au Temps): 20 (0-1-2)
Prix Morny winner (Dream Ahead): 9 (0-0-1)
7 of 10 winners ran in Prix De Fontainbleau last time, finishing 3114d613
3 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst, finishing 221
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Morny, finishing 37
2 of 10 winners ran in the Criterium International, finishing 23
2 of 10 winners ran in the Vintage Stakes, finishing 14
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Omnium II, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Jean Luc Lagardere, finishing 14

Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (3-3-26) and Saeed Bin Suroor (2-1-11) have accounted for half the winners since 2001 but neither have an entry this season.
Andre Fabre (2-3-9) trained the winner in 2003 & 2010 and has seen 5 of his 9 runners make the frame since 2001. He is the only trainer with an entry this year to have won the race in past 10 years.
David Wachman (0-1-2) and Jean-Claude Rouget (0-1-6) have each saddled 1 placed finisher in last 10 runnings.
British based trainers (2-4-39) have won 2 of the last 10, though if you omit Bin Suroor’s runners, their record reads 0-3-28.
Irish trained runners (3-6-30) have also won 3 of the last 10, when omitting Aidan O’Brien’s runners their record reads 0-2-4.

Draw
If you omit 2004 when there were only 7 runners the draw stats read:
Horses drawn 1 to 4: 2-9-36
Horses drawn 5 to 8: 4-4-36
Horses drawn 9 to 12: 2-2-32
Horses drawn 13 or higher: 1-3-16
8 of the 9 renewals with 10+ runners have been won by a horse drawn 9 or below. However Lope De Vega managed to win the race from stall 14 of 15 last year.

Price
7 of the last 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
No really strong trends on prices with 6 of 10 winners going off 7/1 or shorter but in the past 4 years there have been winners priced 10/1, 21.5/1 & 33/1.
Favourites (3-2-11) have won 3 runnings in the last 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 0.39.

Summary:Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• American bred (sire emphasis on speed)
• Born before 10/04/2008
• Had 4 to 8 career starts, run once or twice this season
• Ran at Longchamp or in Dubai last time out
• Run in past 50 days
• Won a group race
• Finished in first 4 in a group 1 (or having first try in a G1)
• Won over 7F or 8F
• Ran in the Prix De Fontainbleau last time out
• Trained by Andre Fabre