AWAIT THE DAWN

Corrals were 8/1 for the Eclipse this afternoon.

If he goes for it he would be a ot shorter than that.

Even better, Stan James are 10/1 for the Eclipse.

O'Brien seems to have an embarrassment of riches for the middle distance Group races this season - Await the Dawn, So You Think, Fame and Glory, Cape Blanco....even St. Nicholas Abbey could yet make up into a top middle distance performer. Be difficult to keep them all apart.

Eclipse plans may become a little clearer when Royal Ascot final declarations are made...that may be the time to strike with that 10/1 (in the right circs).

Yes but Stan James only accept bets on less than £1;51p, unless you are proven mug who never wins anything at all, ever. Swine.

I must say I think Await The Dawn looks an Eclipse natural with So You Think more of a 12 furlong horse.

why did you have an outburst at stan james then cry if you cant bet with them ?

Or perhaps you can!

And i've backed ATD for the King Geroge at 20/1.

He could be another Harbinger, from Chester to the Hardwicke then to Ascot again.

So You Think's main targets are the Tattersall and the Prince of Wales.

Workforce wont want it lightening quick and disappointed last year.

Dont mind taking a chance at 20/1.

My apols, never used Stan James much other than to take advantage of a free bet offer, but an independents I used to bet in up North used to use Stan James prices so possible to take advantage of the price in other shops I would have thought.

With St. Nicholas Abbey winning today & Catt stating on air his next target was reported to be the Coronation Cup, it wouldnt be surprising to see So You Think in the Prince of Wales and Await the Dawn in the Eclipse. Cape Blanco looks like he might be their 'globe-trotting' horse this year.

Im not convinced they will send AWD for a G1 next. He is lightly raced for a 4 year old and has not competed in a Group1 before. If they go to the Hardwicke next, which would be his for the taking, then he'll likely go for the King George thereafter.imo.

He was also 2 of Aidans horses this week which had not received a prep race. He is likely to improve for the run.

AOB puts his champion in the Ganay not his "globe-trotter", although it's difficult to work out what happened in that race. The time was a course record but the way Spencer rode the horse gave him no chance of winning (he gave Distant Memories the same "mission impossible" ride yesterday). Jim Hay wouldn't have bought into him if So You Think was going to take all his obvious targets or if he was going to play second fiddle to a group 3 winner (ATD). Cape Blanco still looks the obvious candidate for the Eclipse.

I agree that Cape Blanco looks like the ideal Eclipse horse, but they have so many older middle distance horses that they'll have to double up sometimes. I'm pretty amazed that PP are still offering 4/1 on AOB champion trainer, as he looks to have an embarrassment of riches in his older horses, and he's just hit some serious form.

Cape Blanco is definitely not the horse for the Eclipse. That's basically a speed test. He needs to be able to build up momentum gradually, running at a consistently fast pace and winding it up from the middle of the race - a little bit like Frankel at Newmarket although obviously not that spectacularly. In the Eclipse you have to slow down round the very tight bend - one of the sharpest bends in any group 1 event. It's a bit like Longchamp, in that no matter how fast you go, you still have to lose momentum on the bends and set it up for a finisher. His race is the Juddmonte International - a race where sustained speed can be rewarded. Just have a look at how many Eclipse winners in recent years have ever won over 12 furlongs. Sea The Stars is one of the very few.

saying that though Howellsy if he gets a free lead as in the Irish Champion he would take some pegging back at sandown(if he went there)

You make the bend sound like a dogleg and ignore the fact the run-in is an ever increasingly stiff uphill 4f. The horses lean into the bend off the back straight and then swing wide into the run-in, no-one ever loses momentum.

The Eclipse isn't a speed test. Cape Blanco can bring his stamina into play, although if he employs the same tactics as he did in France he'll be nothing more than a glorified pacemaker. Are you saying Twice Over would reverse form with him because of the venue?

careful backing this one antepost. liable to go wrong anytime.

Never any real idea where Ballydoyle horses are going until the final declarations.

If it's not a (relative) speed test, list me the 12 furlong winners (pre Eclipse) of the race in the last 20 years. It'll be a short one. Then look at the same list for the Juddmonte. It'll be a long one. The general perceptions are wrong.

Now you're trying to distort the pattern book to suit your argument.

Someone's perception is wrong and it aint the generals.

Cape Blanco? apart from that fluke champion stakes does anybody truely belive this horse has the speed to ever win another group one race?, woefully one paced to me?

I'm not a huge fan of CAPE BLANCO myself. Barring his Irish Champion win (RPR127), none of his form stands up to the best at the highest level - his next best 4 ratings all stand between 118-122. It takes a leap of faith to believe he could achieve a 127 on his other form, & even if he can, it seems unlikely he will on any individual occasion. On this year's form he'd struggle to beat the other AOB middle distance horses anyhow.

Well if I've got it correct, at this stage it seems AWAIT THE DAWN is being aimed at the Hardwicke, SO YOU THINK at the Prince Of Wales, & ST. NICHOLAS ABBEY at the Coronation Cup. From a punting perspective I would have preferred to see ATD kept to 10 furlongs, as stepping him up to 12f does raise a doubt in my mind as to whether he will prove as effective as he is over 10f. It's obviously not an exact science, but I think it's far from certain he will be as good over 12f on his breeding - he showed a lot of pace the last day & is a half-brother to v.useful 8-10f winner Putney Bridge. His dam was a useful 10f winner, being a half-sister to Gp3 winners Multiplex (7f) and Memorise (14f), out of sister to Deploy and half-sister to Warning and Commander-In-Chief. It doesn't scream stamina to me, but the opposition will dictate how much he is tested in any case. Trading out in-running when he's cruising 2f out before his stamina is called into play may be the best course of action.

SO YOU THINK would have won the Melbourne Cup at distances short of 2miles & I think he'll prove quite versatile with regards to trip at least between 10-12F. He'll take a lot of beating in all the 10-12f races based on his Aus form, where he was earning RPRs of 128 consistently.

ST. NICHOLAS ABBEY however, could be the best of the lot. This horse is bred to be best at 12f+. It was incredible he ran to RPR123 as a 2yo over a mile, as he was bound to show his best as an older horse over middle distances. His Guineas effort (a race more of a speed test than stamina), and when AOB's horses were a little in-and-out, still merited a 115. I think he ran to a PB the last day, rating his 1m5f Chester win as at least the equal of his 2yo best (123) and could argue it to be as high as 130; the mark Workforce ran to in winning the Arc last season. The time wasn't outstanding which tempers complete confidence, but he was virtually level with ALLIED POWERS and HARRIS TWEED 1 1/2F out, yet won by 9L & 1.5L! Clearly if pushed earlier, he could have run to an even higher level as he was tanking at the finish and took some pulling up. I've no doubt this horse will run to 130+ over 12F at some stage this season (with grounds for believing even higher is possible), and as such he appeals strongly for the 12F Group One's, culminating in the Arc if connections choose to go there. 16/1 with Totesport looks very generous to me (12/1 generally).

Biggie

Cape Blanco beat the Derby winner to win the Dante, won the Irish Derby, ran second in the King George (again beating the Derby winner) and won the Irish Champion stakes in emphatic style (beating the Eclipse and International winners) yet his wins were "fluke" and don't stand up to the best at the highest level?

The three times he hasn't performed have been in France where twice there was soft in the "going" description and the other time, not fully fit, he was beaten in record time by two of France's hottest properties and a course specialist. His other run this year was a credible length fourth in the world's richest race. And based on that form (all group 1) he would struggle to beat three group 3 winners, two of whom performed their minor miracles around a dog track in Chester?

This thread is like something out of the twilight zone.

I don't believe I used the word 'fluke' myself.

Cape Blanco beat the Derby winner in the Dante yes, but that's not to say he produced a performance in the Dante superior to what Workforce achieved in the Derby. The Dante run was Workforce's 2nd run of his life, he clearly wasn't at his Derby/Arc-winning best that day. WF beat Victor Delight 3/4L in the Dante, VD has failed to win a race since, and won only 1 of 6 races last yr. WF clearly improved a bundle to win the Derby & Arc, surpassing what CB has ever achieved.

In the Irish Derby, CB beat Group 2 winner Midas Touch 1/2L (a horse that has not won a race since, & who has never run above RPR121). MT ran in 3 other Group 1 races last yr and this was by far the closest he got to winning one. He won 1 from 6 last yr. Jan Vermeer 3rd btn 2L by CB in the Irish Derby ran in two other Gp1 races last yr, being btn 11.5L by Workforce prior to this, then nearly 6L by Bekhabad following this run, so again this was by far the closest he got to winning a Gp1 as a 3yo. The runs of the 2nd and 3rd suggest this was the weakest Gp1 they ran in last yr. JV's never run above RPR119, & won only once from 4 runs last yr. Monterosso in 4th btn 3L also failed to win at Gp1 level last yr and was comfortably held by nearly twice as far in his subsequent Gp1 run last yr. He's never run above RPR118. It's clear it wasn't a great race for an Irish Derby.

CB ran 2nd in the King George.....an 11L 2nd!! He may have btn Workforce again, but Workforce clearly wasn't at his best that day (firm ground pointed to as an excuse by connections), or do you think his Arc win was a fluke?

CB won the Irish Champion stakes by 5.5L from Rip Van Winkle and Twice Over, having been given an enterprising ride. Do you honestly think those two multiple Gp1 winning horses ran to form in finishing a shd and 1/2L in front of Beethoven and Sea Lord?! The Irish Champion remains by 5lb CB best run of his career. He hasn't reproduced it since & I think it flatters him.

The Dubai World Cup allowed him a favourable low draw, yet he was not only unable to beat the winner, but was also beaten by two 40/1 shots (despite racing right up with the pace in a slowly run race). The lifetime PB's of the first 3 home in the race were RPR124, 119, 118. It didn't take a lot of winning for the money!

Do not be confused by the money on offer for a race, or the stature of the race itself. It's possible for a horse to achieve a higher level of form being beaten in a Gp2 than it achieves in winning a Gp1.

I am more than confident that (injuries aside) Await the Dawn would beat Cape Blanco over 10f, or that St. Nicholas Abbey would beat CB over 12f. Unless any improvement is forthcoming, I foresee CB struggling to win a well-contested Gp1 at all this season.

You refer to Chester as a 'dog track' to detract some substance away from the performances of AOB's winners last week, I presume? The fact is, whilst tight, form at chester does stand up at other tracks. As just one example, Kris Kin won the Dee Stakes before going on to win the Derby. Your wording appears to suggest the two horses achieved 'minor miracles' last wk, perhaps inferring these runs were flukes? Await the Dawn beat South Easter 9L eased down in a Gp3 at Leop'town last yr (ran to 123, only just shy of last wk's run). He won last wk despite carrying a 3lb penalty in another Gp3 by 4.5L winning impressively. He's clearly a lot better than Gp3!! St Nicholas Abbey was an imperious 2yo (ran to 123) and came back to form last wk running to 124. I believe he would comfortably beat CB over 12f by a few lengths. So You Think is top class and generally recognised as a genuine Gp1 horse, and achieved more in his last 3 runs ratings-wise than CB has ever produced.

Recent Group run RPRs by horse (most recent on right) -
SO YOU THINK      124, 123, 126, 126, 128, 128
ST NICHOLAS ABBEY 116, 123 (both as 2yo), 115, 124.....the 115 being Gns run when insufficient test of stamina
AWAIT THE DAWN    122, 125
CAPE BLANCO       122, 118, 127, 93, 118, 115

Only time will tell if I am correct, but I'm more than happy to wait, and lay CB at the short prices!

Pretty solid post that, makes plenty of sense

Pretty solid post that, makes plenty of sense

You make excuses for Workforce's poor runs but when it comes to Cape Blanco you make excuses for the other runners. That's hardly fair. And if you must use ratings use the Official Ratings rather than the private handicapper Racing Post Ratings. That way we all know where we stand.

You made the statement, "On this year's form he'd struggle to beat the other AOB middle distance horses anyhow." Cape Blanco achieved an Official Rating of 120 for his run in the Dubai World Cup and must have run to around that same mark in the Prix Ganay (a race you seem to have ignored when crabbing CB's achievements). There's no way any of the other three have run up to that mark however much you eulogise about their performances in the group 3 races they contested. Your statement is nothing more than hot air.

I refer to Chester as a 'dog track' because as far as I'm concerned that's what it is. A grade 2, unfair, group 3 best that it gets dog track. Cherry-picking a Derby winner from previous runners doesn't alter that fact. My comment has nothing to do with AOB's runners.

The minor miracle was a reference to your ridiculous belief that SNA somehow equalled Workforces Arc winning performance. Amazing stuff.

Lay whoever you, just ease up on the verbosity.

First of all, I use Racing Post Ratings to study form and rate horses myself. I don't use Official Ratings other than to establish the weight carried by horses in handicap races. Any rating system is independent of another so cannot be compared, and because I don't use Official Ratings, I won't be using them here either.

There's clearly a huge difference in the level of Workforce's form in the Dante and King George compared to his wins in the Derby and Arc. If you don't think there is, please stop reading now. If you agree, then there's no reason to question me making excuses for Workforce.

With regard to Cape Blanco, I believe he's run quite consistently to within a couple of pounds of the 120 mark since his Dante success, save for his runs in the Prix Du Jockey Club, & Arc last year (soft ground not suiting apparently). I don't make excuses for Cape Blanco because I think he's run quite consistently since his Dante success and when he's run particularly poorly in those two races, he did so because conditions didn't suit. I believe 120 is as good as he is. I've made excuses for other horses in CB's races because when he's beaten them I think they've run under their marks, not because CB has run above theirs. I've provided supporting evidence to this with the runs of lower rated rivals finishing close up behind those horses in behind. Cape Blanco could beat a 125 rated runner off level weights tomorrow, but it wouldn't necessarily mean he ran above 125. Just because he beat Rip Van Winkle and Twice Over by upwards of 5 1/2L doesn't mean he's 5 1/2L superior to them, & the fact Beethoven & Sea Lord finished so closely behind those pair suggests they didn't run to form. One swallow doesn't make a summer, & imo the Irish Champion win doesn't make him any better than 120. I've already covered most of Cape Blanco's races, & picked holes in the form in instances where CB has beaten higher-rated rivals. If you want me to cover the Prix Ganay also, a run I even consider to be inferior to his World Cup one, I will.

Planteur won by 1L from Sarafina, who in turn was 1L clear of Cirrus des Aigles, with a further 1/2L back to Cape Blanco. Planteur is a very good horse, but prior to his win in the Ganay, he was 2/3 in Gp 2 & 0/4 in Gp1 company. Sarafina had not run since her 3rd in the Arc, and the Ganay trip was questionably short of her best. Yet they both beat CB comfortably. Of equal interest is the fact that the 3rd horse Cirrus Des Aigles managed to beat CB by 1/2L. CDA is a good yardstick. He has run 27 times, winning 7 times including at Listed, Group 3, and Group 2 level (twice). He has however, failed to win at Gp1 level four times now. His last dozen races show consistent form. His 3 Gp2 runs have produced two wins and a short neck 2nd. He is a Gp2 horse, falling short of Gp1 winning standard. Yet he managed to beat CB a 1/2L. His RPRs have never exceeded 120. Planteur looked as though he had more in the tank, Sarafina will no doubt improve for this seasonal debut & possibly also with a step back up to 12f, yet CB (who had already had a run this season) couldn't get near them. I'd expect the placings to be confirmed with a rematch.

This game is all about opinions, and I DO stand by my assertion that St. Nicholas Abbey, Await the Dawn & So You Think have all now achieved runs in excess of 120 this season. You can claim it to be hot air, but hopefully they will meet this season at some stage and we will see for ourselves.

Oh, and you have misquoted me - I never said SNA equalled Workforce's Arc winning performance the other day. I said


'I think he (SNA) ran to a PB the last day, rating his 1m5f Chester win as at least the equal of his 2yo best (123) and could argue it to be as high as 130; the mark Workforce ran to in winning the Arc last season.'

COULD. That's based on the performances of the 2nd and 3rd. Those two horses have already been assumed to have run lbs below form in judging SNA to have run to RPR124 by the Post (confirming what I had said, being 1lb higher than his 2yo best). They normally err on the side of caution when allocating ratings, though they can subsequently be marked up based on the horses future performances. This would not surprise me, should SNA bolt up again next time.

Finally, I use as many words as is necessary to highlight my point, and I don't feel the need to put words in others mouths or to misquote them to support my argument, or to discredit their own. I've made my opinion perfectly clear so far as CB is concerned so I shall let him do his talking on the track from here.

Hippie, just out of interest, you stated:

'There's no way any of the other three have run up to that mark (120) however much you eulogise about their performances in the group 3 races they contested. Your statement is nothing more than hot air.'

If you believe they all failed to run to 120, can you tell me what mark you do believe they each ran to? You must have some idea to be able to dismiss them as a 120+ runs.

Kind regards
Biggie

biggie

I am not at all sure what St Nick achieved at Chester - it could be that he has recovered the form he had at 2 and is th stayer we thought he might be, or that he beatr horses who were all out of form or didn't perform.

Personally, although I made a profit (mainly because of the Mordin idiotic concentration on the Bekhabad Planteur duo) I am pretty sure Workforce ran below form in the Arc although he won.

Personally I reckon St nick ran well below the rating of 124 the Racing Post rated his Chester win. To get hi  to 124 they gave the second Alied powers a rating of 111 the same as his official rating. Allkied Powers prefers much softer ground than he got at Chester but the RPR still has him as having run to his official rating.

Harris Tweed is rated to have run only 4 lbs below his best, but this cannot be right. he was harassed for the lead and pulled for a full circuit and then drifted when asked to quicken - this did not look like he was within a stone of his best to me.

I reckon St Nick may have run about 116, this makes him still interesting but maybe a bit vulnerable. I would not be keen to back him for the Coronation Cup without more evidence. There he might well meet Midday (rated 126) and will have to try and give her 3lbs. This may prove impossible for him. In addition Midday is backable at 16/1 and St Nick is layable at 2/1. This choice is something of a no brainer. Fresh thread about to appear!

Your backing her for CC ? Is she is a definate runner ?

Await the Dawn 8/1 with B365 for Tatts Gold Cup on Sunday. Has nothing to fear from Campanologist and I rate him a few lbs superior to 2nd fav Famous Name (7/2). Be an absolutely knocking e/w bet if allowed to take his chance, with So You Think taking out so much of the book (4/11).

I agree, but will he run ? Famous Name should be 10/1 in that line up.

That's the point..'if allowed to take his chance'. I think he'll go to the Hardwicke as a fact-finding mission re: 12F. It'd open up a lot of different options if he proves he stays. If he wins that impressively tho, you can forget getting any fancy prices on him for anything, and I'd like to see him prove he stays 12f before lumping on, so the only way a touch can be landed before people wise up to how good he is (for me anyway) is to keep him at 10F against a supposedly much superior beast. I wouldnt mind near 2/1 in a match bet against Famous Name on Sunday ;)

11/10 with B365 and Stans, fill ya boots

StanJaemezarecuntz allow me bets of nothing more than 50p.

11/10 look ridiculously generous. Unless there is a horse I missed, there seems nothing in the race that could get him off the bit.

After the Hradwick, I think it will be a break then Prix Foy and Arc.

Well it appears this thread isn't out of the 'twilight zone' as suggested by Hippie after all!! St. Nicholas Abbey confirming his 124 rating at Chester when apparently beating nothing with a 125 rating at Epsom beating proven Gp1 performer Midday. Cape Blanco again exposed today as nothing out of the ordinary, being unable to cope with the pace of proven 8f performers. All we need now is for Await the Dawn to win the hardwicke and Hippie can keep his unfounded idiot comments to himself. :D