Native Khan - a cracking Derby trial

Agreed

Oh no roobuck - you aren't going to back him are you?

French Derby I'd have thought?

this is possible but I would be surprised, that is unless they decide to avoid Frankel if he does go to Epsom.

His breeding does look at least superficially as though 10 furlongs would not be as suitable as 12.

Interesting ran a corker, I think he laid up in 4th whilst Casamento/Roderic where sprinting to try & get into  Frankels slipstream
Amazed he managed to run on so well to the line as the Group1 chasers where staggering around @ the finish like a drunk on newmarket high street on a saturday night.

COT, no.......not yet

Might well do if Frankel doesn't go, accepting I will have missed the price.

Azamour is a serious influence for stamina!!!
How do you come to that conclusion?

Big fan of this horse and was touting him for a place and to reverse places with Casamento. However that was pretty easy to read into as Casamento IMO was always going to burn out trying ti take on Frankel and that's exactly what's happened.

Things couldn't have worked out better for Native Khan and he managed to get third but he did fail to get past Dubai Millennium which would indicate to me he may just be that tad below what it takes to win at Epsom.

If he does go to Epsmm I think you'll find he's a nearly horse who runs a stormer without actually winning. I'd be tempted to back him for a place only if he turns up but I just can't see him being good enough to win it.

AP wouldn't be an option for me as we ave no idea if Frankel will run or not.

Ed Dunlop


"He's come out of the race very well and we're very pleased with him," said Dunlop.

"It was an unbelievable performance by the winner. It was certainly the best Guineas win I've ever seen. I'm thrilled for everyone involved with the horse and it's brilliant for racing.

"We were very happy to be part of it. Our horse was obviously not in that same division, but we adamantly feel our horse wants further than a mile.

"Hopefully we can run in the English Derby, although I couldn't rule out the French Derby.

"He's French-bred, but I said before the Guineas I wanted him to run in the English Guineas rather than the French and we were lucky enough that the owners were happy for us to do that.

"Being an English guy, I'd like to have a runner with a serious chance in the English Derby, but we'll see.

"We'll have to discuss it further, but we were obviously very pleased with what happened at Newmarket.

"Wherever he goes, he won't run in a trial beforehand."

So no clearer really then - hard to recommend as an antepost bet until he gets the green light.

A wee bit clearer mate. People who have the bigger prices probably have more hope. They know also know what the trainer wants to do. Good on Ed Dunlop for keeping people up to date. Apparently he's a bit reserved when dealing with the press, which may or may not be true, so good on the guy for keeping folk updated. I won't be backing Native Khan myself. He also kept people updated with Snow Fairy. If he trained Roderic O'Conor for example, he would have told people that he hadn't grown much, and saved many people their cash.

Ed Dunlop is a fine trainer, one of my favourites, but he has done some terrible aftertiming before though, pulling horses out after saying they were definite runners. Snow Fairy in last years Champion Stakes for example

I had it at 50s AP for yesterday and have small bets on it for the Derby at an average of around 100. I just hope it goes there. My main AP bet for today is a non runner and my main bet for the 2000 was W Bassett.

I really hope he goes for epsom as I saw him quite a few times as a yearling so I have soft spot for him. Had a little 50's for satuday 40's for epsom. Still think he is the value in the derby market right now.

can't help but feel that guineas was a gruelling race and would have left its mark on the ones in behind. not as bad for native khan as casamento, who looked a broken horse at the end, but still.

also was it not concerning that he seemed to get outstayed at the end by dubawi gold? I backed him in the without frankel market and thought I was bound to win, then some outsider comes and chins him

Wont get home in a horse box! It was on empty at the end in the Guineas.

Mayweather, he ran the last furlong of the guineas faster than Frankel did - if Native Khan was 'on empty', r u saying Frankel (a horse lauded as a superstar ever since) was going up and down on the spot?!?!

You guys seriously believe a horse who couldn't beat a dual-AW Listed winner over a mile is going to win the Derby? He's not even close to being classy enough and could actually need 14f to produce his best. He just gallops and doesn't really quicken. Mayweather is talking absolute rubbish as per usual, 10f is his minimum trip. Regardless, World Domination's debut RPR is sensational and will win the Derby. Ratings wise it's in the same league as Dubawi, Galileo, Alhaarth, American Post, Spectrum and Lammtarra. They all won Group 1s and only Alhaarth didn't win a Classic. World Domination is a serious, special horse.

Be careful if you are backing Native Khan regardless. We're now seeing what the effects of a gruelling, fast race on quick ground can do to you with Denman and Kauto Star.

I don't think native khan will win the derby either, but to say a horse that's just won a newbury maiden will win the derby, and is a very special horse, i'm sorry but thats losing the plot. at least wait for the dante ffs!

Sacred Kingdom
Date Joined: 16 May 05
Add contact | Send message
When: 06 May 11 04:58
Joined:
Date Joined: 16 May 05
| Topic/replies: 120 | Blogger: Sacred Kingdom's blog
You guys seriously believe a horse who couldn't beat a dual-AW Listed winner over a mile is going to win the Derby? He's not even close to being classy enough and could actually need 14f to produce his best. He just gallops and doesn't really quicken. Mayweather is talking absolute rubbish as per usual, 10f is his minimum trip. Regardless, World Domination's debut RPR is sensational and will win the Derby. Ratings wise it's in the same league as Dubawi, Galileo, Alhaarth, American Post, Spectrum and Lammtarra. They all won Group 1s and only Alhaarth didn't win a Classic. World Domination is a serious, special horse.

Be careful if you are backing Native Khan regardless. We're now seeing what the effects of a gruelling, fast race on quick ground can do to you with Denman and Kauto Star.

^
world dominations racing post rating for his debut run? 99. hmmmm.........

NATIVE KHAN CANNOT AND WILL NOT WIN THE DERBY, NOT GOOD ENOUGH AND IT WONT STAY.

NEXT SUBJECT!

I think trying to compare 11 year old national hunt horses running over 3m+ at the end of their season/career with a 3 yo that has raced once so far over a mile on the flat is lunacy.

'world dominations racing post rating for his debut run? 99. hmmmm......... '

Mythical, do you read posts before you respond to them? 8 horses have run in the Derby since 1995 after posting a debut RPR of 99+. The 6 I mentioned in my post, Dubawi, Galileo, Alhaarth, American Post, Spectrum and Lammtarra, the other 2 being Munwar and Dubai Millennium. Only Munwar failed to win a Group 1 from that group and off the top of my head I reckon they won 18 Group 1s between them. Galiileo and Lammtarra obviously both won and a lack of stamina did for Dubawi, American Post, Dubai Millennium and Spectrum. Alhaarth didn't train on and Munwar I just think was really flattered on his debut.

Lammtarra debuted with 100, Dubawi with 99, Alhaarth with 104 and American Post with 102.

I love the way you come on here Mayweather and make uneducated statements with absolutely no foundation to them.

On which premise to you feel/think Native Khan won't stay?

His style of running? his breeding? his relaxed attitude? or is it  the fact he was running on strongly in the Guineas which would seem to point to a horse who needs further.

By all account he should stay 10 furlong and further but whether he is actually good enough is hard to say as we have no idea what's round the corner.

Right now he's the most likely winner as World Domination is no more a Derby horse than flying in the air but Sir Michael Stoute has one tucked away who will appear shortly and turn the betting on it's head. So i do agree he probably won't win the Derby but not because he won't get the trip.

sacred kingdom, all the horses you mention made their debuts as TWO year olds.

I like world domination as well, but to say that he's a very special horse and is bound to win the derby after winning some bog-standard newbury maiden is a bit bonkers imo.

No problem, opinions like that get me a better price.

Eh?  He's a terrible price on what he's actually achieved.

Win the Dante then 4 or 5/1 not before.

Some reputations gonna get damaged next week at York.

Well I've got 25s and 10s on him, but it'll get me a better price for winning the Dante.

Sacred Kingdom

That statistic about the number of Derby winners with a debut rating of 99+ is a bit misleading. To be meaningful you would have to have looked at how many horses, like World Domination, who are bred to be possible Derby horses, have made their debut and run 99+ and then never even got to Epsom let alone not won it. Without doing the enormous research required, I would think there would be a decent number of qualifiers.

Looking at World Domination, he won his maiden nicely, although I was of the view that in time the horse than finished second to him will improve past him. He could, opf course be anything.

However look at the Dante. He has at least 3 horses against him that might beat him, the OBrien horse who is already a group 1 winner), the Queen's horse (who looked much (more impressive to me when winning his maiden at Newbury than World Domination) and the Godolphin horse that won the Sandown classic trial, (a race that gives Genius Beast better form than World Domination too). The cahnces are World Domination will get 1 or 2 to beat him at York and how silly will the current Derby odds look then?

Of course World Domination might have quite a bit of substance to his enormous hype and ridiculously short Derby odds. He might improve a stone and become a decent candidate for Royal Ascot; and of course he might win a Derby. However he might well not even start favourite for the dante which again pits his Derby odds into s true perspective.

not to forget seville. the dante tends to be a mini derby in itself. absolutely right they'll be some bubbles burst next week. sacred had better hope world domination isn't one of them [;)]

the one I like in the race is carlton house, although I must confess i'm slightly dubious about his chances of stretching his stamina to a mile and a half.

Native Khan definitely overpriced for me. The only horse that tried to keep tabs with Wonderhorse and still finished resepectably. Would surely have won a Frankelless Guineas. Trainer thinks he'll stay, handles fast ground and KF loves him. If the race hasnt taken its toll will be there or thereabouts imo.

I wouldn't be worried about stamina for Carlton House, Mythical. Plenty of stamina on his conduit side. I'd worry whether he's good enough and whether he'd have developed enough by June. April 30th foal, however both the late-April and May foal winners from 1995 onwards came in the worst Derbies - Oath and High Rise, and this year's race looks the pits right now.

Seville I'm not worried enough. Too much stamina in his pedigree. A Leger horse. Ditto Genius Beast, he's not good enough. Roderic I doubt will turn up. Doesn't look like he's trained on. Very small.

Actually I hadn't looked in-depth at the debuting RPRs for Derby runners between 1997 and 2003 bar the winners. There are more horses who debuted with a RPR of 99+, 14 in total.

yeah. agree it "could" be the pits but I said that last year and it threw up an outstanding horse in workforce. its too early to say. in fact prince khalid and juddmonte farms are on a revival with workforce and frankel and others, they'll surely be hoping they can continue it with this world domination.

the biggest dissapointment of the derby for me is the absence of frankel. ok he showed huge speed in the guineas but for me that says nothing about his ability or not to stay the derby distance. most galileos stay comfortably, and I think he could well be one of those freaky horses who could win races from the july cup to the ascot gold cup.

world domination and the other dante runners could well be superstars, but unlike frankel they've yet to prove it. epsom will be a poorer place without his raking stride, thats for sure.

mythical

Although I did lay off at 6/1 on here, I had a huge bet on Frankel at 20/1 and although not financially a loser as a result of betfair, I am very sorry they chose not to go to Epsom. Frankel does take restraint after a short while and in my view would have wiped the opposition out entirely at Epsom.

Sacred Kingdom. Your stats still worry me a bit. There may have been 14 Derby runners who managed 99+ first time out in the period you state, but how many others never got to Epsom. I think the chances are that World Domination will prove in the Dante, nothing like good enough to run at Epsom; he will go to Ascot for the Edwardian race instead.

who do you think will win the dante cryoftruth? ive suggested world domination on here, is there any reason why you are so negative about him? carlton house I like a lot though. please god don't let that dreadful coolmore lot win it or the derby

agree re frankel. to be honest though I felt the way they ran him in the guineas they had given up on the derby, you would not ride a horse that way to prep for epsom.

I am not negative about World Domination. He just strikes me as a classic hype horse. He was backed hard for the Derby before he ran and them won a decent maiden, but not by that far and nothing like Workforce won his. he has just been errible value since before he ran and still is. I think he's miles under his proper price.

I think that Genius Beast is a big price for the Dante. He won a decent race at Sandown quite well - better form that World Domination or Carlton House and he should be much shorter than the 10/1 available. I think he should be second favourite or favourite and is thus very good value for the race and for the Derby too.

yeah. but the clock backs up the fact that world domination was impressive though. the way he cantered up to them with queally taking a pull reminded me a bit of an authorized. just think the stable are on a crest of a wave with frankel and success breeds success. I wouldn't go as far as sacred kingdom would and say he's a very special horse who's bound to win the derby, but I think he'll win the dante at least.

4 horses above nk in derby betting, at least one if not 2 will flop on thursday, native khan could well be 2nd fav for the derby and 18 could well become 6/1 on the day

native is not a confirmed starter yet trainer to make decision near the time

Cryoftruth, why does that stat worry you? 2 of the 14 won the Derby and a further 3 won Classics. Without even including the 5 I found after my original post, had a quick think about the Group 1s they'd won between them and I counted 18.

Won't get home in a horse box.

Do you just make these things up as you go along or is there some foundation behind making such a strange statement ? He's hardly bred for sprinting mate and has shown every indication 12 furlongs would be his ideal trip.

Fair e/w shot in an open year, but I have to disagree that everything he has done suggests 12f will be his ideal trip. I'd say the biggest plus is that Ed Dunlop is so keen to run him at Epsom and not Chantilly. He dosen't usually tilt at windmills, and don't forget on breeding Snow Fairy looked to have no chance of staying 1m4f.