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cryoftruth
01 May 11 05:38
Joined:
Date Joined: 22 Mar 04
| Topic/replies: 11,180 | Blogger: cryoftruth's blog
"I am really sorry I spoke so much complete tosh about the importance of statistics and the recoed of 2yo champions in the 2000 Guineas.

I now fully recognise that factors like the record of favourites is a statistcal blip.

I was quite wrong about Frankel, especially the garbage I blathered about him needing to go a slow pace early, and realise that what I said was so much complete tosh.

I am very sorry if I misled anyone in parting with their money on the basis of my foolhardy advice.

I realise that I should have been less dogmatic especially after my stupid advice about the outcome of last year's Arc, when I completely overlooked the obvious chances of the top class Epsom Derby winer and instead got confused by the time of a trial in France where the going is notoriously unreliable. "

Yours sincerely

Nick Mordin.


What about it Nick?

Time to own up or time to bluster and to deny I was wrong in the first place (NAP).
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Report Howellsy May 1, 2011 7:32 AM BST
Nick Mordin's reply:

"Was the 2000 Guineas run hyesterday? Sorry, I was watching the action in France, where Planteur won a group 1."
Report zilzal1 May 1, 2011 9:27 AM BST
Can we have a COT weekly column then, in which you give selections and thoughts a few days before the event??. Most Journos sit on the fence and go with the crowd regarding horse racing and then people moan about Fence sitting, stick yer neck out and get it wrong and then suddenly the whole world is on yer back and then you are suddenly AFRAID of being wrong.
Report cryoftruth May 1, 2011 9:35 AM BST
I doubt I would get tired of being proved wrong (like Mordin) either zilzal; however I don't have the benefit of being paid to talk krap and be arrogant, nor do I have a huge data base and the resources given by the racing post or weekender to help me, nor can I claim as tax deductable, Raceform or Timeform or all the other aids a national journalist can muster.

As I say its the shocking arrogance of the style that is so infuriating. Hios stuff on Frankel was really the pits. It was evident to juts about the whole world that Frankel needed a strong pace, yet Mordin insisted again and again that a strong pace would be his undoing. I'm not saying he is stupid - he is not. But he sometomes so up his own Arsse that he forgets to use his eyes and watch races with a clear mind.
Report zilzal1 May 1, 2011 9:42 AM BST
But you do have the choice of whether you read him or not?? Loathe him or Love him he doesnt sit on the fence and probably gets talked about more than any other writer in the racing game.

How many other Weekender columnists get a mention on here?? Thats because they dont provoke thought, one way or the other
Report cryoftruth May 1, 2011 9:53 AM BST
I am getting on and like many more senior citizens I tend to get preoccupied with my bowels. I see Mordin a bit like that - the conveyor of the most unspeakable shytte.
Report geoff m May 1, 2011 2:04 PM BST
I think Nick will get some sectionals to say he was bang on the money & Frankel is a top class sprinter who had the class to see out the mile
Report cryoftruth May 1, 2011 3:10 PM BST
he can't have it both ways.

Eiher Frankel is not suited by a strong early pace or he is a sprinter.

No doubt Mordin will have his say in time and make pathetic excuses for getting it wrong again without ever adnitting he just misread the quality of the horse.
Report thelatarps May 1, 2011 10:46 PM BST
I spose all he has done is oppose an odds on fav
& then look a colossal puh-lonker when it hosed up
Then again
Had he not rambled on and on about sectionals & just said the price is just too short then this fred prob would not exist
Report Diamond_Joe_Quimby May 1, 2011 11:17 PM BST
`The anti-Nick Mordin group on here are about as boring as it gets.
He provides debate and opinion and isn't that what its all about?!?

So he got Frankel wrong? I'm sure it isn't the first or last thing he will or has gotten wrong.
But he has gotten plenty wrong. Remember laughing when he put up Never on Sunday as one of the best horses in France....Cue him winning a group 1 at 8/1+

Pity more of the media don't provide the same debate.
Report betty swallox May 2, 2011 2:31 AM BST
'Diamond' Joe Quimby Joined: 14 Oct 05
Replies: 5263 01 May 11 23:17   


`The anti-Nick Mordin group on here are about as boring as it gets.

Well said.
Report duncan idaho May 3, 2011 11:42 AM BST
It's odd, though, that Mordin's reasoning seems to make less and less sense the older he gets. (that's from someone who has read his books and kept hundreds of his columns)
Report grendel May 3, 2011 12:31 PM BST
I was a big fan of Mordin's work during the 90's and he has inspired me to look at racing in other ways, I only buy the weekender for his column whether it be nonsense or not, the important thing is the way he makes me think and his influence has helped me become a better punter.

The rest of the weekender journalists articles are drivel in comparison.

I do agree with duncan idaho that his articles are becoming non-sensical in the last few years, seems to just cherry pick a few of numerous stats that the last 10 or so years winners have conformed to ... on the whole though, the guy is a legend to me !
Report Mayweather May 3, 2011 12:52 PM BST
Why don'y Nick retire?

He isn't up to tipping a snooker cue alone a horse!
Report Mayweather May 3, 2011 12:55 PM BST
I told Nick Frankel would win the Guineas however he wanted but did Nick listen? No he didn't and he, just like the others (Essexguy for example), his eye balls rolled like a ball in the roulette wheel when Frankel went 15 clear.

Now, if i'm anything like Captain Birdeye then I must be a little like Frankel too, a champion!

I am a champion, me and Frankel were laughing at you lot during the Guineas lol
Report ilikewavingatbuses May 3, 2011 1:19 PM BST
Laugh
Report Mayweather May 4, 2011 11:00 AM BST
I cannot hear Nick now? Anybody heard from him lately? lol
Report dogbolter May 5, 2011 11:03 AM BST
Maybe the anti-Nick brigade should adopt Mary Whitehouse as their mascot/spiritual leader

For those not old enough to remember she used to watch all kinds of tv so that she could complain about it and campaign to get such programs censored, rather than exercise the very efficient censorship of changing channels or turning the tv off.

If you get so incensed by Mordin, it's probably healthier to not read him rather than rant about him. Stress and high blood pressure are killers y'know....
Report Mayweather May 5, 2011 11:28 AM BST
Dogbolter - it's all about staying calm in high pressure situations.

As you and everybody else know, if Frankel or Big Bucks were beaten in the World Hurdle and/or the 2000 Guineas people would have come on here giving me stick.

Some do still try and give me stick but deep down they I know and they certainly know I am a winner and it hurts them because they know skills pays the bills and the score currently stands, Mayweather 2 - 0 Essexguy / Sims / Ilikewavingatbuses / the other layers.
Report dogbolter May 5, 2011 11:54 AM BST
Mayweather - betting is a lonely game, and I understand the desire not only to be right, but to be seen to be right. But I often think this is counterproductive.

After all every single penny bet has an impact, however negligible, on the betting markets.

The more you are right, and point out others fallacies, the more likely you are to shorten the odds of your fancies and lenghten the prices of those you dont fancy.

I too have various tipsters/pundits who I (privately) rant against - but ultimately it's these people who make the market for your selections.

Rather than railing against the muppet tipsters/pundits wouldnt it be better to rejoice that such epople exist, and rub your hands in glee with their erroneous thinking? Because such people will MAKE YOU MORE MONEY?
Report Mayweather May 5, 2011 12:07 PM BST
Dogbolter - I totally understand what you are saying.

As soon as Essexyguy, Ihatewavingattaxtis, Sim (what ever his stupid name is) see my selection when try to get on.

However, I believe my banter actually makes them want the horses I have backed to lose.

I keep telling people, It doesn't matter what I want to win, It doesn't matter if I want Big Bucks or Frankel to win, they will win anyway, because they are the best. Cheering or booing them makes no difference. They are true champions, just like myself.

I like coming on here proving these muppets wrong, although sooner or later I might take the other approach. One day I might just put people on the wrong things for my own financial benefit.

I like people winning from the bookies but not these kind of muppets. Essexguy gives all the stick but he really hasn't backed it up. He makes out he will win 20K in the Derby, but he won't tell you if he loses the Derby that he will lose £4K.
Report mythical prince May 5, 2011 9:36 PM BST
this is what he actually wrote:

FRANKEL WILL TAKE A WHILE TO RECOVER FROM THIS

FRANKEL (45) put up one of the most breathtaking displays of front running when setting an almost impossibly fast pace in the 2000 Guineas. He went so fast he was at least ten lengths clear at halfway and clocked times that would win top Group 1 sprints for the first five, six and seven furlongs.

Frankel was understandably tiring quite dramatically in the last half furlong but was still half a dozen lengths clear at the line.

Previously I'd theorized that Frankel would tire if he was asked to go a strong early pace. I guess I could claim I was right because he did tire. But he still won anyway.

This was the best performance by a three year old in the first half of the year since I've been making speed ratings. Clearly Frankel is brilliant and can win pretty much anything. The question right now is just how much this huge effort will have taken out of him.

If he were mine I wouldn't dream of running Frankel again before Royal Ascot at the earliest. Seeing that he's conservative in the way he places his horses I wasn't surprised to hear that trainer Henry Cecil is inclined the same way and that the next race we'll see Frankel is the St James's Palace Stakes. You'd have to be pretty brave to oppose him there.

I've suggested before that Frankel would be a serious candidate for the July Cup. This run makes me even more interested in the prospect of him winning a big sprint like that. Equally though he's got a long stride and could well stretch his stamina to ten furlongs for the Eclipse.

DUBAWI GOLD (39) ran a big race to come from miles behind and finish a distant second. He might just be good enough to win the Irish Guineas. But a better candidate for Classic success is surely third placed NATIVE KHAN (39) who underlined his Prix du Jockey Club prospects by keeping on well.

At this stage the French three year olds don't look anything like as strong a group as last year's amazing bunch. So I can see Native Khan having a serious chance at Chantilly as long as he gets the fast ground he needs.

^ the in bold bit is mine Laugh

I think frankel could be one of those freaky horses who are capable of winning any race from the july cup to the ascot gold cup personally[smiley:crazy]
Report A_T May 5, 2011 9:44 PM BST
A horse tiring in the final furlong whatever next!
Report A_T May 5, 2011 9:46 PM BST
At this stage the French three year olds don't look anything like as strong a group as last year's amazing bunch

He won't let this go will he? Think only Makfi won a weight for age Group 1.
Report silvergreaser May 5, 2011 10:39 PM BST
A bit premature to be writing the obituary of the French 3yo's we've hardly seen any of them yet
Report kevo May 5, 2011 11:06 PM BST
Why shouldn't cryoftruth question NM analysis of Frankel?
I have read some of Nicks books and found them quite useful, but like most of us; he doesn't get it right all of the time.
Report duncan idaho May 6, 2011 10:04 AM BST
'At this stage the French three year olds don't look anything like as strong a group as last year's amazing bunch'


Ahh, the golden generation of French 3yos in 2010....when will we see their like again?
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