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Saritamer
28 Apr 11 21:21
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Date Joined: 11 Aug 05
| Topic/replies: 268 | Blogger: Saritamer's blog
I know AOB doesn't exactly excel with early season classic fillies (thinking of Rumplestiltskin for example) but I am amazed this horse is not favourite for the 100 Guineas on Sunday (currently trading at 11).

Trained by the master of Ballydoyle, a dual Group 1 winner, one of them over the trip, one on fast ground and bred for the job, you would think she was the obvious place to look for the winner.

I can only presume that she hasn't exactly been working the house down and only runs as Ballydoyle rarely let a classic go by whereby they are unrepresented and maybe the hope is that the racecourse re-ignites her.

Anyone got any thoughts?
Pause Switch to Standard View Is Misty For Me not "ready"?
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Report Graeme83 April 28, 2011 9:28 PM BST
It's probably the lack of comments. I think they're the only ones who haven't told anyone anything about their guineas runners. I'd be disappointed if any British trainers went over their neck of the woods and applied themselves in this manner. A really odious outfit.
Report Saritamer April 28, 2011 9:38 PM BST
Can't say I disagree Graeme, never been a huge fan of the way they do things but that certainly wouldn't stop me piling on if I thought one of theirs was going to win.
Report jamesp April 28, 2011 9:52 PM BST
I don't normally make derogatory comments about trainers or owners, but O'Brien, Magnier, Tabor et al are showing an arrogant contempt for the racing and betting public.  If they carry on in this vein their future big-race winners will be greeted with, at best, polite silence.

As far as Misty For Me is concerned, it's anybody's guess what shape she's in, but if she's in the same form she showed when winning her two Group 1's last season she will be hard to beat.
Report sintonian April 28, 2011 9:52 PM BST
I suspect she will finish in the first 5 and then mop up some group 1's in Ireland or even at Royal Ascot. She has been far to weak on here to be ''ready'' imvho.
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle April 28, 2011 10:02 PM BST
Sometimes you gotta laugh....

Misty for Me in the eyes of Ballydoyle won't train on and especially won't be quick enough to win a 1000 Guineas. She was a small compact gutsy filly that ran a monster race at Longchamp against vastly superior fillys in term of ability but is a battler. If you look at her pedigree her half brother was Fasliyev who didn't race at 3 despite being a super 2yr old because he was finished by the time his 3yr old career came around.

I don't think their is any conspiracy is fairly simple to my eyes....she is too slow on firm ground to win a 1000 guineas....50:50 chance she wont train on..and first run of the season in a very open 1000 Guineas.

For me she should be 16/1[;)]
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle April 28, 2011 10:04 PM BST
She is 10 on the Machine and Laughing Lashes is 12. They have a beaten each other once.

Too my eyes the market has this spot on..where ever MFM is LL should be same price or 1 point difference
Report jair1970 April 28, 2011 10:09 PM BST
Do they even rate her?
She's never gone off favourite and has surely done more than enough for the paddocks already...
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle April 28, 2011 10:11 PM BST
Another good point by Jair...she works like a pig at home as she has never been punted with any confidence. They themselves have no idea how well she is as she obviously does little or nothing riding around the polytrack at home
Report sinndar001 April 28, 2011 10:24 PM BST
They don't have a clue. Together obviously works a lot better than her at home, Together went off shorter than her twice last year, both times finished behind her. Seamie addmitted after Misty's Moyglare win that he'd have rode Together if he had had the choice. She obviously is a v poor work horse. She has never been fancied but has performed v well every day. She is small so may not train on but I hope she will. Laughing Lashes will be behind her I'd say as she looks temperamental. Flashed her tail in Leop  and the  Moyglare. Doesn't look the most straight forward to me. I thought the Irish Fillies were under rated last year. Together who I wouldn't rate at all rattled White Moonstone and Look At Me who won a poor maiden was second to Havant. I think Misty for me should be shorter.
Report Saritamer April 28, 2011 11:21 PM BST
Some interesting points and maybe I am completely off the ball by looking at her as a potential winner. By the way Ruby I never for a moment suggested there is any sort of "conspiracy" (maybe you think someone else has?)I merely wanted some feedback on the chances of the filly in the Guineas, I must say though your obsevations re the merits of the filly are possibly not too far off the mark, but feel it still may be a risk worth taking

Think this is a race where nobody really "knows" and a lot of guesswork is involved. If I was looking at the race from a purely "vibes" point of view I would have to presume Havant has a major chance and if the rain comes to any great degree then she would have to have a major chance.

When all is said and done though the 1000 Guineas has time and time again shown itself to be a great race for using 2-y-o form as a guide (Ghaanati aside) and with the possible exception of Hooray MFM has by far t.he best 2-y-o form on offer.
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle April 28, 2011 11:45 PM BST
wasnt aimed at any poster in mind just a general point.

Same with the Roderic O Conner thread.

Mind you it beats me what wins this race...i have no idea and i if you gave me numerous trys i wouldnt find the winner
Report Saritamer April 28, 2011 11:49 PM BST
Think that's what nagging me to be honest, haven't really a clue either and maybe should accept that just because there are some tasty prices available on good horses it doesn't mean I have to have a bet
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle April 28, 2011 11:56 PM BST
Yh in this situation i think just leave well enough alone.

The Guineas as a rule is a very hard race to pick the winner of both codes. Early season...have they come in their coats and all other sort of variables.

Just sit down with a cuppa...and enjoy the race
Report Sacred Kingdom April 29, 2011 2:33 AM BST
Ruby, with all due respect to yourself, I've heard 2 very respected people with very strong Irish connections describe Misty For Me as a brute, a huge horse that looks like she should be jumping fences. If this is the case, she'll take an awful long time to get fit. Look at the improvement she showed from starts 1 to 2 last season.

Coupled with the lightning quick ground we're going to get...

Another point to make; Aidan O'Brien fillies in the 1000 Guineas that have had at least 1 run that season - 1 winner, 2 placed and 7 unplaced. Those without a run - all 9 unplaced.

His fillies ALWAYS take a run to get going. Even the likes of Alexandrova, Peeping Fawn and co. have taken 1 or 2 runs to buckle down to it.

Would be shocked to see her place on Sunday.
Report sintonian April 29, 2011 9:43 AM BST
I agree. I thik she will run a promising race in the first 5 or so and then we'll see her win later in the season. Similar story to Mastercraftsman a couple of years back.
Report sintonian April 29, 2011 9:44 AM BST
She is 3/1 a place currently and was 7/2 yesterday.
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle April 29, 2011 10:22 AM BST
Maybe she has grown SK...but i remember last year she was a small little filly with scope to grow. At least we get a good luck with CH4 camera's before hand to see really how good she looks and then if you want to bet lads ye can.

I am sure Fallon will be working with CH4 with himself being banned
Report mythical prince April 29, 2011 10:38 AM BST
looks on the small side (have a look at the videos from last year, she's dwarfed by laughing lashes) and the question is, whether from the front (or thereabouts) she can outbattle a stacking field on quick ground.

but she is a battler. given the ferocious speed hellenborine showed in the boussac she would have swamped most fillies but this one just kept on rolling. I suppose 10-1 could look very big for an aidan o brien dual group one winner come sunday night.
Report dtamutants April 29, 2011 2:03 PM BST
It's always a worry when Laddies are top price on a Ballydoyle horse, as they usually have the info before anyone else. They are currently a standout 9/1 on both Roderic and Misty. Not a good omen for backers of those horses (including me)
Report mightymoyes April 29, 2011 2:22 PM BST
i dont think thats been the case for a while.
Report sintonian April 29, 2011 4:03 PM BST
complete n0nsense imvho.

they are shortest on all Stoutes runners all the time aswell but it dont mean a thing.

some they will get riht, some they will get wrong.
Report dtamutants April 29, 2011 4:32 PM BST
I'm not saying it's definitely the case but often they know more about the Ballydoyle goings-on than others. For instance after before the derby last year, they were longest on SNA and shortest about JV for about a week.
Report sintonian April 29, 2011 4:42 PM BST
Just to add weight to my theory on Misty For Me being campaigned as 3yo like Mastercraftsman was ... Pat Smullen rode him into 5th behind Sea The Stars that season, and he is booked to ride Misty tomorrow.

Pat Smullen riding for Aidan Obrien is 0/4 in the UK, and 0/7 in Ireland.

I suspect Misty will need the run tomorrow, and will then be aimed for the Irish Guineas.
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle April 29, 2011 5:08 PM BST
I not sure they have any idea Ladbrokes anymore.....

They had a few moles in Ballydoyle before and link with Mike Dillion and the ownership issue but IMHO i think a an awful lot is made of it.
Report mightymoyes April 30, 2011 12:19 AM BST
i agree sintonian but her price is still tempting.
Report Sacred Kingdom April 30, 2011 12:25 AM BST
Mike Dillon is part-owner of Laddies Poker Two along with Tabor & co.
Report sintonian April 30, 2011 4:42 PM BST
Yes Moyesy she is a decent price on form and plenty of people will be backing her anyway.

Rodeirc Oconnor didn;t run too well in the 2000.
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle April 30, 2011 4:46 PM BST
You should see her drift now....ROC was terrible. He was beat before he got 1f....I think the female version of him could well have a similar faith
Report jmc27 April 30, 2011 6:29 PM BST
Magnier is a shareholder in Laddies and outside of that Dillion is a member of the clique.

On another note have backed Misty at 18.5 on here but tbh not really confident :(
Report mightymoyes April 30, 2011 9:47 PM BST
they were nearly all terrible though ruby.
Report sintonian May 2, 2011 9:51 AM BST
11th. Pretty poor but predicatble given the apparent weakness all winter plus the booking of Smullen.

I hope she improves for the run as she is in my TTF.
Report sintonian May 22, 2011 8:22 PM BST
O'brien using our Guineas as prep races, FACT.
Report JOCI Club May 22, 2011 8:44 PM BST
Looks a bit like it!
Report Tavaris Jackson May 22, 2011 9:27 PM BST
BHA should push them back a few weeks until his horses are ready.
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