Horse Antepost
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Very weak for the Guineas and Derby on here in recent days. I would say things were looking grim for his followers but we've seen this before with APOB runners and the next thing you know people are wanting huge amounts on. We shall see...
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This is looking ominous
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why did they take zoffany out, is he injured?
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Well i've taken a view and had some of the 20 odds for The Derby on here. My logic being if the reason for the drifts in both markets was that he has a leg hanging off you wouldn't be able to still lay him for the Guineas. If the reason is that he's not yet fully come to himself/they are worried about firm ground at Newmarket/worried he may not have the speed for a Guineas then none of these are necessarily detrimental to his Derby chances. If, as I suspect, it's just the usual lack of information coming from the yard then as soon as he's confirmed for Newmarket and APOB says "sure, we're delighted with him" then he'll be back into mid teens for Epsom before you can say "I wish i'd had some of that 25's..." Cue withdrawal......
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most likely, O Briens other derby candidates are doing a lot better than him and he has been withdrawn from their derby calculations. Following on from that, he's probably not excelling at home in general, hence his weakness for guineas too
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So he's not showing enough at home to be part of their Derby team, but he is showing enough to be their only real Guineas contender?
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thats what I and the market are saying; theres surely no reason to believe a horse will be equally capable of running in both. More worringly, Coolmore mightnt want ROC to win. With all the attention he's getting, Frankel losing would surely have a deleterious impact on Galileos stud value (yes, I know ROC is a Galileo too, but hes not getting any attention)
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I still don't think that makes any sense Keynes - if he's not showing enough speed to be competitive with the likes of Seville and Recital then he would only be available to lay at 1000 for the Guineas, not 14.
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I wouldn't put it past them to lay the horses at those prices themselves, just to create doubt. They go out of their way to get on the wrong side of racing fans, what with heir stopping stable tours and website updates, as well as ignorant interview answers. Is it really beyond possibilty that they would thrown in a few bob to make people unsure to their main guineas runners participation ? ...there's been no reason whatsoever for those prices to be floating around unless it's a NR.
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graeme, Im not sure why theyd do it, but there are plenty of reasons someone might want to manipulate ROCS price (consistent with the manipulation theory, his place price has barely budged.) Its surely not in Coolmores interest to cast doubt over the health of their horses. Anyway, Fame and Glory's Arc price regularly drifted and arose the same concerns. In any case, I think ROC is by far the best challenger to Frankel and theres no reason his price should be almost double that of Pathfork.
gerard, as you likely know, the characteristics of guineas and derby horses are different (perhaps he's showing too much speed for the guineas and is showing stamina limitations?) That ROC can be extremely weak in one market and merely weak in another is not particularly disturbing, but his overall weakness is |
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Graeme83
Date Joined: 21 Sep 07 Add contact | Send message When: 27 Apr 11 15:24 Joined: Date Joined: 21 Sep 07 | Topic/replies: 6,702 | Blogger: Graeme83's blog I wouldn't put it past them to lay the horses at those prices themselves, just to create doubt. They go out of their way to get on the wrong side of racing fans, what with heir stopping stable tours and website updates, as well as ignorant interview answers. Is it really beyond possibilty that they would thrown in a few bob to make people unsure to their main guineas runners participation ? ...there's been no reason whatsoever for those prices to be floating around unless it's a NR. Graeme, that is one huge assumption,mate. And very cynical indeed. Prices drift on Betfair all the time and people get in a blind panic, and I say this as a ROC backer. Like I said to you on another thread, i'd more concerned if his odds in the place market drifted. I also remember Mastercrafstman was similarly weak a few years ago before the race, and it turns out he just needed the run, as he went on to win Group 1 races straight after. Perhaps ROC is 95% fit, hence the inflated win price, but also why his place odds are holding. |
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Keynes, without wishing to drag this out.....we already know he gets a mile strongly and I don't believe for a nanosecond they would have tested his stamina for Epsom at home yet.
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To answer Keynes and Sintonian - I never actually said they want to mislead people in to believing this horse is injured. I just think they are doing it to make themselves feel smug. They often name their horses after geniuses they probably know nothing about. Maybe they think they are being Machiavellian by deceiving people. I just see no reason why anyone would lay a general 6-7/1 shot at double those odds and upwards, given that he's their only potential winner. It's not as if they have a batch of runners with nobody knowing who the main jockey will pick. And yes Sintonian, i am being cynical. I think there's too much ignorance in horse racing.
"On the death of King Murtagh, Roderick O'Connor, King of Connacht, became Monarch of all Ireland" |
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I think the most worrying thing is that Laddies are top price on him, and they usually the best informed about Ballydoyle form/running plans.
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Most worrying thing for me would be gerard has backed him.
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"thats what I and the market are saying; theres surely no reason to believe a horse will be equally capable of running in both. More worringly, Coolmore mightnt want ROC to win. With all the attention he's getting, Frankel losing would surely have a deleterious impact on Galileos stud value (yes, I know ROC is a Galileo too, but hes not getting any attention) "
That's a fairly good point. Although if ROC beat Galieleo, then he too could go for the Derby. So in effect they would be shooting themselves in the foot. |
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beat Frankel that should have read ^^^
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Only Ballydoyle horse left in the race - that could be seen as real confidence that he is the one - as opposed to their frequent strategy of running 3 or 4 and hoping one might be good.
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I really fancy him in the W/O market....but was weak their.
I can see the winner from the top 3 in the betting so i would rule out all horses like Casemento etc. Must be value time now |
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Graeme83 you are right to be cynical but you are looking in the wrong direction. The reason Ballydoyle is unhelpful is not to pee off racing fans, and certainly not so they can hoover up on Betfair.
It is to protect stud values of future Coolmore stallions. |
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"It is to protect stud values of future Coolmore stallions."
Can you explain that Ramruma. I don't doubt that you're right, but it would be interesting to know how. |
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Yes A_T - perhaps he is on for the Guineas & Derby double. [:D]
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Two ways of looking at this:
1. They run one cos HE IS THE ONE  2. They run one cos they are struggling for decent 3yo colts this year I still can't make up my mind which is right. There's good evidence for both theories |
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In fairness Coolmore new Facebook page is very good. Don't give much away re how good horses are but seem to break news asap regarding running plans
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Coral have prices: 2/1 Planteur, 9/4 Cape Blanco and Sarafina, 14/1 Ley Hunter, 16/1 Cirrus des Aigles, 20/1 Silver Pond, 50/1 Pouvoir Absolu. Surely Cirrus is worth a poke at that price? He loves the place and looks like a different horse there.
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Probably, but i'm not so sure Roderic O'Connor will win the Ganay this year.
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Jair, what evidence is there they are struggling for a 3yo this year ?
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I'm mainly thinking colts here and predominantly milers but:
1. Last year, they sent 31 2yos (fillies and colts)to England to race, none won 2. Zoffany was their only 2yo to show good form before the late autumn. Good milers and Guineas types they've had have usually been campaigned more obviously at 2 and shown themselves to be decent. 3. They seem to have abandoned France as a trial ground. They did the same last year but where are the horses running in the good Spring trial races? 4. Jackaroo/Exodus-type 'feeler' horses running in trials and performing moderately 5. Await the Dawn / Jan Vermeer / Cape Blanco / So You Think / Fame and Glory / Viscount Nelson /St Nicholas Abbey is a formidable array of older horses for the year. Sure, Fitri Hay's bought in but are they keeping all these horses in training because the 3yo replacements aren't sufficient? 6. Zoffany (all gone a bit quiet), Roderic O'Connor (big hope?), Master of Hounds (Dubai? Kentucky Derby??), Recital/Seville/Marksmanship (Derby types) look to be the short long list of possible flag bearers. Any could be a class act, but there are precious few vibes around (if any!) and it could be a lean year if these horses don't come on as expected. As has been commented, there is no info coming out of the yard, not even any hype! If a salesman's got a product, he tends to tell people about it. For all this, it's early days and who knows what the season truly holds. |
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Ok thanks.Some interesting points. |
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You did ask!
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Zoffany goes to France...but that form is garbage
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jair, Coolmore have Frankel running for them. One theory is they dont want to take any hype away from Frankel so are being uncharacteristically quiet about their own in-house products. This might also explain why ROC mightnt be "ready" on Sat and why Zoffany (an erstwhile Guineas fav) is not even taking part.
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I'm perfectly happy to argue a pro-Roderic case, if required!
Surely it's win/win. There's no way they'd leave it purely to Henry Cecil if that was the way they were thinking. Roderic O'Connor is very similarly bred to Frankel, kudos abound if he were to beat him too. Roderic O'Connor's 2yo campaign and route to the Guineas is reminiscent of Rip Van Winkle, but with an added Gold Star. They let Rip run a couple of times at home mid-season then laid off him until the Dewhurst. For the Dewhurst he got experience of travelling abroad and was widely regarded to have been given an 'educational' ride and finished a close up 7th. Problem starts when he appears back at Newmarket in Sea the Stars Guineas, runs adequately but only 4th. His subsequent exploits peg him as the 2nd best horse in that race, behind a true Champion, so did they undercook him that day? Mastercraftsman's finishing position only adds weight to this. They royally messed up last year by trying to turn St Nicholas Abbey into a Guineas horse, possibly against their better instincts but equally possibly as they hadn't a better miler. I'd imagine the inquest at Ballydoyle last year was quite stern Onto Roderic: Has a Rip-style midsummer; couple of races for experience. Brought back for a crack at the Dewhurst where he both travels abroad for experience and gets a look at Frankel's behind and gets a pretty educational ride, finishing full of run whilst taking a comfortable second. What use is a top horse without a Group 1? It took until the end of July in his 3yo season for Rip Van Winkle to get one! For a horse that ends up rated high 120s, this is crazy. Solution? Send Roderic to France. More experience, signs of waywardness (!) but a Group 1 on the board at a mile. Job done. So. To the Guineas. Roderic O'Connor is top class. 2 pieces of form tell us this. He's 2 months younger than Frankel, so could be allowed more room for improvement. He needs to turn up fit to win. If Rip Van Winkle had, he might have gone closer, surely they've learnt from this? Maybe... |
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Hope this horse finishes last and never wins another race.
Hate him. Mainly because my ex dumped me and ended up shagging some arse hole named Connor. Fcuk him, fcuk her and fcuk Roderic. :o kin bit ch. |
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Graeme83 -- how does Ballydoyle keeping shtum protect stud values?
Suppose by the end of the season, Flying Dancer has won a handful of Group races, including a Classic. We (and mare owners, and yearling buyers) will be told they always knew he was special, and so on. This will be undermined if Aidan is on record as telling the Racing Post that Flying Dancer can barely put one hoof in front of another, but that his stablemate Dancing Flyer (who is now a single figure price in the Triumph Hurdle lists) is the new Eclipse. So that is why there is a virtual media blackout. Because at the start of most seasons, they really do not know who will be the stars, and when they do know, sometimes racecourse evidence is slow to follow (George Washington, Hawk Wing). And on the other side of the coin, Rock of Gibraltar was not thought to be a Group horse when given away (or lent, depending who you believe) to Sir Ferguson of Old Trafford. Some of the bizarre betting patterns are for the same reason, and not to land coups. |
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Re: ROC
Is he another quite small colt and was dwarfed by Frankel in the Dewhurst...he didn't seem to have much scope to grow and moles say he has not grown at all over the winter. ROC will be the smallest in paddock 2moro i would imagine |
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"Suppose by the end of the season, Flying Dancer has won a handful of Group races, including a Classic. We (and mare owners, and yearling buyers) will be told they always knew he was special, and so on. This will be undermined if Aidan is on record as telling the Racing Post that Flying Dancer can barely put one hoof in front of another, but that his stablemate Dancing Flyer (who is now a single figure price in the Triumph Hurdle lists) is the new Eclipse.
So that is why there is a virtual media blackout." Nah i'm not buying in to that Ramruma. Roderic o'Conor is their only guineas chance. There's nothing stoping them from keeping racing fans updated with regards to the horses well being. If they have to give positive vibes for average horses, then so be it. However i'd imagine yearling buyers are more concerned with other attributes to be concerned about previous trainer comments. |
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Last season’s Criterium International (Group 1) winner Roderic O’Connor who was runner-up to Frankel in the Dewhurst Stakes will make his seasonal debut in Saturday’s Qipco 2,000 Guineas. The son of Galileo will be ridden by Ryan Moore. "He seems to be in good form, we have been happy with his preparation and we hope that he runs well."
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Posted anti O'Brien post 2 minutes ago. Blocked. Same fate ?
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What happened to my post . You should all be concerned.
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