Forums

Horse Antepost

Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Anaglogs Daughter
18 Apr 11 16:07
Joined:
Date Joined: 05 Jan 10
| Topic/replies: 29,477 | Blogger: Anaglogs Daughter's blog
Last year's winner Church Island is among a field of 25 left in the bet365 Gold Cup Chase at Sandown on Saturday.

Michael Hourigan's veteran could bid to become only the third horse to win the prestigious end-of-season handicap in successive years after Larbawn (1968-9) and Topsham Bay (1992-3).

There will be a big rise in the weights after Paul Nicholls scratched Kauto Star and What A Friend, as expected. The list is now headed by another Irish challenger, the Dessie-Hughes-trained Siegemaster, who fell in the Topham Chase at Aintree on his latest start.

Hughes would be happy for Siegemaster to carry top weight, as long as the ground was suitable.

"He's in the Irish National, but he's more likely to run at Sandown if the ground was OK," said the County Kildare handler. "He's fine after his fall and he didn't gallop too much afterwards. We'll have a look and see. Ground-wise, we wouldn't want it too firm. If it's good jumping ground we'd travel and for a race like that I think they'll make sure it is."

The Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained Baby Run, winner of the Fox Hunters' Chase over the Grand National fences, is among the fancied horses standing his ground for the weekend's race. Philip Hobbs has left in Balthazar King and Triggerman but has taken out Wishfull Thinking and Quinz.

Among the other possibles are Suzy Smith's Aimigayle, the Pat Murphy-trained Maktu, Alex Hales' Iconoclast and David Pipe's pair of Faasel and Gentle Ranger.
Pause Switch to Standard View BET365 GOLD CUP, Sandown this Saturday
Show More
Loading...
Report Facts April 18, 2011 5:09 PM BST
baby run must go close imo
Report Dark Destroyer April 18, 2011 5:30 PM BST
I would be pretty surprised if Baby Run's stamina holds out up the hill.
Report neill d April 18, 2011 5:40 PM BST
Poor renewal.
Report neill d April 18, 2011 5:40 PM BST
if aul Siegemaster tops the weights, granted he won the Thyestes.
Report Dark Destroyer April 18, 2011 5:47 PM BST
TBH Neill we have had poor renewals for what seems an age now. Compared to the glory days of the Whitbread it is a poor shadow of itself.
Report Anaglogs Daughter April 18, 2011 6:28 PM BST
BABY RUN is outright favourite for the Bet365 Gold Cup with several firms as a host of fancied runners were taken out of Saturday's race at Monday's five-day stage.

The John Smith's Fox Hunters' Chase winner leads the sponsor's market at 11-2, while Blue Square make the Nigel Twiston-Davies runner a 5-1 chance.

Recent Cheltenham winner Balthazar King is generally next best at 6-1, although Stan James make the
Philip Hobbs-trained chaser favourite in their market at 5-1.

Pat Cooney, spokesman for the sponsor, reported good support for Aimigayle, a 10-1 shot who was as big as 25.

Stablemate and Aintree winner Wishfull Thinking was taken out of the Bet365 Gold Cup with a run at Punchestown under consideration, while the likes of Quinz, The Midnight Club, Arbor Supreme and Blazing Bailey were also scratched after their exertions in Grand Nationals.

Can't Buy Time and West End Rocker, both of whom fell in the John Smith's Grand National, remain among a total of 25 horses left in the Grade 3 Sandown race. Last year's winner Church Island, who has not run since, has stood his ground
Report Dark Destroyer April 18, 2011 6:39 PM BST
The RP's accuracy leaves something to be desired.

Far from "not having run since" Church Island has had two quiet preps this month, over hurdles at Gowran and on the flat at Tipperary. Not surprisingly he made no show in either race but I think we can assume any cobwebs have now been blown away.
Report neill d April 18, 2011 6:59 PM BST
I'm only following the game seriously about seven years so the glory days are probably before my time, but what the field wouldn't give for a Monkerhostin or even Erics Charm, Siegemaster is a dodgepot who won't win off his mark imo, and however well Baby Run has been running, its Hunterchasing ffs,real poor turnout altogether.
Report Beryl April 18, 2011 7:33 PM BST
I like the Last Derby in this. He's got to go right handed and enjoys good ground. Hasn't run since October but has an excellent record fresh.

Ran very well in the Cork National last time which confirmed his stamina for something like this.

My only worry is trainer also has him in the Irish National and if the ground looks like being good at Fairyhouse he might wait for that.

However, if he runs at Sandown I'm getting stuck in.
Report Reefer 2001 April 18, 2011 9:04 PM BST
Meanus Dandy is going to be a big gamble here.  Aome shrewdies have some 33's.  Ruby booked, has to go right handed, won over 3m 2f in a fast time at Wincanton, won over the course and off 10-7.  If this doesn't go off single figures i'll pack in.
Report Trusty April 18, 2011 10:36 PM BST
Agreed poor renewal.

Got to like Gentle Ranger back to a winning mark, hopefully he'll stick O'Farrell on and claim another 5. 20/1 on here will do me.

Have no stable info but Pipe (Sr) always had a good runner or two every year in this race, no reason why Jr. won't be doing the same.
Report strontium April 19, 2011 12:14 PM BST
It's unfortunate that we have 2 3m 5f handicap chases on stiff tracks scheduled within two days of each other. It can't really be helped, but it affects the potential quality of both.
Report 1st time poster April 19, 2011 6:27 PM BST
diamond edge.lettoch, happy days
Report Anaglogs Daughter April 19, 2011 9:12 PM BST
By Paul Eacott 5

SAM TWISTON-DAVIES reckons that Baby Run will be able to justify his prominent position in the betting for Saturday's Bet365 Gold Cup when he moves out of hunter chases and into handicaps.

The 11-year-old is disputing favouritism with the novice Balthazar King at around the 5-1 mark for the final big race of the jumps season and Twiston-Davies, who will replace his brother Willy riding for father Nigel at Sandown, is pleased with the Aintree winner, whowill be getting 4lb from his market rival.

He said: "I think he has got a brilliant chance at the weights. He has beaten some very good horses in what he has done so far."

Before his victory in the Fox Hunters' Chase, Baby Run had unseated Willy Twiston-Davies when leading two out at the Cheltenham Festival and Sam Twiston-Davies told At The Races: "I think he would have won at Cheltenham when what happened happened, but his form is very consistent and he tries very hard and hopefully he will do the business."

The Cheltenham mishap came after wins at Wetherby and Haydock in his two other starts thisseason.

Sandown clerk of the course Andrew Cooper has pledged to "water right to the wire" with dry, warm and sunny weather forecast for the rest of the week.

He said on Tuesday afternoon: "It's good, good to firm in places on the jumps course, and we'll be watering throughout the week."

The Last Derby, third at Cork on heavy ground when last seen in October, attracted good support for the Bet365 Gold Cup at big prices on Tuesday. The Eoin Griffin-trained seven-year-old was halved in price to 16-1 by the sponsor and Stan James and cut to 16-1 (from 20) by William Hill and Paddy Power (from 25-1). **** now offer 20-1 (from 25) and Victor Chandler 20-1 (from 33).
Report Trusty April 19, 2011 10:16 PM BST
The rise in the weights has been welcomed by trainer David Pipe as he considers saddling both Faasel and Gentle Ranger.

"They are both possibles now the weights have gone up a lot so they both get in the handicap proper and they are both in the Irish National as well. We will see later on in the week," the Nicholashayne handler told At The Races.

"They could both end up in the bet365."

....more I look through the more I like Gentle Ranger. Had some small bets at Corals & WH at 20's today and see both have cut him.
Surely if Pipe sends one to Ireland it will be Faasel who is likely to be in the h'cap proper.

I like the profile, only a few runs this season, kept for the better ground and h'capped to a winable mark. Be dissapointed to see this one out of the frame and despite Coopers threat to keep watering, I am sure the ground will be on the firm side of good. No rain forecast, temp's going up.
Report Fistfulofdollars April 20, 2011 10:39 AM BST
I like the last derby too...just missed the 25s yesterday but not certain to run...will know more after the 5 day decs for the irish national later today....I also think exmoor ranger will run a good race - last 2 runs at sandown have been a win and a narrowly defeated nose...
Report Trusty April 20, 2011 2:59 PM BST
The Last Derby left in at Fairyhouse and out to 40/1+ on here. Looks an unlikely runner.
Report Trusty April 20, 2011 3:11 PM BST
Confirmed on RP news. Siegemaster out also.

SIEGEMASTER, top weight for the Bet365 Gold Cup on Saturday, will miss the Sandown race, according to trainer Dessie Hughes.


RELATED LINKS
Bet365 Gold Cup card
Bet365 Gold Cup betting 
A general 25-1 chance for the race, Siegemaster was to carry 11st 12lb. Last year's winner Church Island is next in the weights on 11st 7lb.

Speaking on Wednesday afternoon, Hughes said: "Siegemaster won't be going to Sandown as the ground is going to be too quick for him.

"We've also taken him out of the Irish Grand National on Monday. Punchestown is an option but the chances are he won't run again this season. He's probably done enough."

Another Irish challenger, The Last Derby, is also set to bypass the race, with connections instead preferring to run in the Ladbrokes Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse on Monday
Report Racecaller08 April 20, 2011 3:16 PM BST
10 year trends for the race:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-2-10
7yo: 2-7-23
8yo: 3-7-41
9yo: 1-2-36
10yo: 1-4-39
11yo: 2-5-20
12yo+: 0-1-9
Horses aged 6 to 8: 6-16-74
Horses aged 9+: 4-12-104
Younger horses have held the call in this, with 6 of 10 winners being aged 6 to 8 from less than 42% of the total runners.
Of the 4 winners aged 9+, 3 had won a grade 2 or 3 chase previously and the other had won the Grade B Troytown Chase and was runner-up in the Irish Grand National on previous start.

Breeding
Irish bred: 5-5-85
French bred: 3-19-59
British bred: 1-4-27
USA bred: 1-0-4
Other: 0-0-3
Over past 7 years French breds have a record of 3-16-42, which compares well to horses bred in all other countries, combined record of 4-3-77. Fred bred horses have filled 22 of 29 places since 2004 and they represented only 35.3% of the total runners.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 11-0 or more: 2-7-49
Horses carrying 10-6 to 10-13: 4-10-46
Horses carrying 10-0 to 10-5: 4-6-59
Horses carrying 9-13 or less: 0-5-24
Horses carrying 10-0 to 10-13 have won 8 of the last 10 from approximately 59% of the total runners.
Top Weight: 507PF030P4 (0-2-10)
Both horses allotted top weight to have made the frame were ridden by 7lb claimers

Official Ratings
Horses rated 146 or higher: 2-6-33
Horses rated 132 to 145: 8-16-110
Horses rated 131 or lower: 0-6-35
8 of 10 winners were officially rated 132 to 145, though they have represented approximately 62% of the total runners.
Horses racing from out of the handicap: 2-5-41

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 on last completed chase start
8 of 10 winners had their last chase start in a graded contest (2 exceptions ran in class 2 chase worth 30K+)
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days
10 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times that season
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M 1F+
8 of 10 winners had run in 9 or fewer handicap chases (both exceptions finished 4th in previous year's race)
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases
6 of 10 winners were first or second season chasers
3 of 10 winners contested a novice chase that season
9 of 10 winners won a race worth 20K+
7 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded race

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Church Island): 54659 (0-0-5)
Badger Ales Trophy winner (Meanus Dandy): P (0-0-1)
Classic Chase winner (West End Rocker): 00 (0-0-2)
2 of 10 winners ran in Scottish National last time, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in Aintree Grand National last time, both unseating
2 of 10 winners ran in Stewart Family H'cap Chase, finishing 3P
2 of 10 winners ran in Racing Post Chase, finishing 57
2 of 3 novice winners ran in Scilly Isles Novice Chase, finishing 35
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in the Charlie Hall finishing 34
6 of 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival (2 Stewart Family H'cap Chase, 1 4M NH Novice Chase, 1 Ryanair, 1 Arkle & 1 World Hurdle)
8 of 10 winners had their last start in a Cheltenham chase or in Irish/Scottish/Aintree Grand National (both exceptions ran in a hurdle)

Trainers
Philip Hobbs (2-5-13) trained the winner in 2006 and 2008 and has filled 3 of the 7 places in past 2 years.
Paul Nicholls (2-8-27) won the race twice in the past decade with Ad Hoc (in 01 & 03).
Michael Hourigan (1-0-3) in 2010 and Ferdy Murphy (1-0-3) in 2007 are the only other 2 trainers with entries to have won this in past 10 years.
Irish trained runners (2-1-14) have won 2 of the last 10 runnings from just 8% of the total runners.

Price
7 of 10 winners were priced between 14/1 and 25/1
No strong trends on trends on the prices, though there have been a couple of long-priced winners in past 3 years.
Favourites (0-5-12) have a very poor record gaining no wins in the past 10 year. Level stakes loss of 10.00.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 6 to 8
• Carrying 10-0 to 10-13
• Officially rated 132 to 145
• French bred horses do well
• Had last run at Cheltenham, in a Grand National or over hurdles
• Ran at this season’s Cheltenham Festival
• Run in the past 50 days
• Run at least 3 times this season
• Won over 3M 1F+
• Won a race worth £20,000 or more
• Run in no more than 9 handicap chases (won no more than 2)
• Trained by Philip Hobbs, Paul Nicholls or in Ireland
Report Anaglogs Daughter April 20, 2011 6:39 PM BST
THE LAST DERBY, whose price for the Bet365 Gold Cup was halved on Tuesday to 16-1 with the sponsor, will miss the race with connections instead targeting the Ladbrokes Irish Grand National.

Trained by Eoin Griffin, the seven-year-old is now certain to get a run at Fairyhouse on Monday after Wednesday's final forfeit stage and will stay in Ireland rather than going to Sandown on Saturday.

Griffin said on Wednesday: "We're number 25 in the list and that means The Last Derby will run in the Irish National and not at Sandown."

The weights for the Bet365 Gold Cup will be reshuffled after Dessie Hughes revealed that top-weight Siegemaster will miss the race due to the forecast quick ground.

Hughes said: "Siegemaster won't be going to Sandown as the ground is going to be too quick for him. We've also taken him out of the Irish Grand National on Monday. Punchestown is an option but the chances are he won't run again this season. He's probably done enough."

Siegemaster was to carry 11st 12lb, with last year's winner Church Island next in the weights on 11st 7lb.

William Hill reported a trio of movers for the Bet365 Gold Cup on Wednesday as Aimigayle (8-1 from 12), Meanus Dandy (14-1 from 16) and Gentle Ranger (16-1 from 20) were all trimmed.

Bet365 Celebration Chase favourite Tataniano is popular, with most firms cutting him to 7-4 from 9-4, while Paddy Power go shorter still at 13-8.

It looks set to be quick ground at Sandown, with both the Flat and jump tracks described as good, good to firm in places on Wednesday.

Watering is taking place at the course through the week, with the Flat track set to be watered on Thursday
Report josef k April 21, 2011 7:15 PM BST
Faasel should win this one. It will be a bittersweet victory however as I remain convinced he would have won the National had he got inCry
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com