2,000 Guineas Strategy

For those who have missed the fancy prices, there is not much point backing Frankel for the 2,000 Guineas at this stage. First he has to win his trial, second he has to train on (not guaranteed given how precocious and flighty he was last year), and third, his trainer has had quite a few short-priced Guineas losers since he last won the race in the seventies.

Far better to look elsewhere for a bit of value. The race looks like cutting up: it is rumoured that Zoffany and Fury, two solid-looking contenders, will miss the race, while Dream Ahead and Wootton Bassett are only 50/50 or less to make the gig. Rule these out for antepost purposes, and you are only left with a handful.

The first one to consider is Native Khan. He looks to have a fairly straightforward task in the Craven tomorrow (with dark horse Yaseer the main danger) and will no doubt shorten significantly if he wins. I can't see him winning the Guineas, as he looks too much of a stayer (one for the Derby shortlist), but 33-1 each way is worth a bet, if only for trading purposes.

Pathfork and Roderic O'Connor are solid enough, but unexciting at the prices. Roderic looked a bit wayward last year, and Pathfork had some hard races and is quite exposed. At huge prices, Elzaam, Yaseer and Happy Today could put themselves in contention with good runs this week, but the one to have a proper bet on is Strong Suit.

Strong Suit was green on his debut last year, yet still won easily in a good time, beating subsequent Group 2-placed Neebras and Formosina. That form is rock solid. He then went on to win the Coventry. The form of that race is nothing special, but the way he won it, weaving between horses and making up several lengths to nab Elzaam (subsequently second in a Group 3 on the wrong ground) on the line, was mightily impressive. With a clear run he would have won by four lengths, and Hughes rightly admitted he'd made a hash of the ride later on.

Then Strong Suit went to Ireland and was narrowly beaten in a Group 1. Some have given as an excuse for that defeat the fact that he raced too prominently. I don't buy that, though, as he was prominent enough on his debut and won easily. A more likely reason for the below-par run is his hard race at Ascot. That was a brutal effort for a two-year-old, who had barely had a race when running green at Newbury but was given a kitchen sink ride at Ascot. That will have set him back and I doubt 7 weeks was long enough to recover. His Ireland run can therefore be forgiven, and that he could still finish close up in a Group 1 even when below par is testament to his ability and courage (it also showed Ascot hadn't scarred him for life). His final run at Newmarket can be overlooked on account of the ground.

Strong Suit has a difficult trial coming up on Saturday, and he needs to nearly win that to have a chance in the Guineas, but if he comes back to last summer's form he'll be a match for Frankel. Some will prefer to back him for the Greenham and play up winnings for the Guineas, and there's nothing wrong with that strategy (I'll probably take some 20-1 now and have a little on for the Greenham). Either way, he looks the Guineas value at this stage. Good luck.