Horse Antepost
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Anyone else think Neptune Collonges is way overpriced for this one? Confirmed intended runner, 5lbs taken off, 40s going with laddies still, forms a bit in and out this season but at his best and assuming he gets the trip which he shapes like he will, has to be an interesting e/w shot...
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id be concerned they withdrew him on the day as the ground prob be too quick for a horse with past tendon trouble. Ante post bets down the drain then but the weights stay as they are.
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Undoubtedly a class animal,however IMO will find it difficult to win off a mark of 168 having been previously uncompetitive off 164.As said above,fast ground would also be a concern,and his inclusion means only 9 others are due to race off their correct marks(possibly so The Minack can race off 10-1 ?)
I personally like the look of Balthazar King,although he has been weak on the BF market and I have not heard whether he is a certain runner. |
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All valid points however given the comments emerging about the ground at the Aintree National being too fast surely Ayr will be doing all it can to avoid a repeat of the same scenes during and post race on Saturday. Plus if it's going to rain anywhere in the country you'd think it'd go to Scotland first although that might just be wishful thinking. As far as his mark goes, He beat Tidal Bay 1 1/2L who was off 166 although granted he is another dubious form marker, not sure if he will reoppose after coming down at Aintree.
Off 11-4 which he should be if Ryan Mahon takes the ride as Nicholls suggested in the RP he could go very well. |
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A.P. JOCKED UP ON NEPTUNE COLLONGES. AYR HAVE NOT GOT THE BEST OF RECORDS IN RELATION TO THE GROUND ON SCOTTISH NATIONAL DAY. 2 YEARS AGO I BELIEVE MERIGO WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE BIG RACE ON ACCOUNT OF THE GROUND.
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There does seem to be rain around at Ayr this week so ground might be on the easy side
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I think it will be good on the day as only bits and bobs of rain is forecast and Ayr does dry quickly at this time of year. You would have thought the Irish National would have been a more realistic target for Neptune as its often on the easy side. Were going to have a similar situation to when Halcon Genelardais carried top weight a few years back and a horse won it from 300 lbs out of the handicap - get your pins out folks!
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I wonder if West End Rocker will run after his early departure at Aintree..
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On Racing Post website vote&bet question on Scots GN winner they have 14% vote for bottom weight horse 'Hot N Holy' priced up at a general 200/1 shot. Currently second in the voting.
Can anyone shed any light on why? Does this pose EW value? Is price because horse not likely to get in? Unfortunately cannot see any bookies offering NRMB bets. |
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Always Right must have major e/w chance on last run, goes on most ground has seems to be improving which is more than can be said for most of field.
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Merigo looks like a great E/W bet. Course specialist, ground not a problem, nice weight. I think he was aimed at the GN, but should be primed for this weekend. I think 14s at Laddies (if still there) a very good price.
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MERIGO PRICE GONE. 12LBS OUT OF THE HANDICAP IS A BIG CONCERN
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Not sure whether AP getting on reflects the big owner or if they think he has a real chance, either way he has halved in price. Could be interesting.
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