Horse Antepost
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Can somebody tell me why the drift on here for the big one in less than 2 weeks time.
A stone well in and 30's. I appreciate he is a novice, but he has missed Cheltenham for this and i would think should be at the fore of the market. Have i missed a press article over the last week or so?
A stone well in and 30's. I appreciate he is a novice, but he has missed Cheltenham for this and i would think should be at the fore of the market. Have i missed a press article over the last week or so?
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My guess is the trainer has stated he won't run on soft ground and people are looking at a long range forecast for Aintree and panicking. Shouldn't have been such a low price anyway so entitled to drift but i think that's what is happening.
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was not the quickest learner over fences to begin with though and he will have to learn pretty fast when the race starts might be well handicaped if it were a conventional races but if the horse dosent suit the race conditions handicaps marks mean nothing. There are plenty of trends to make him unpopular as well. Hes drifiting to a pricen what he should be now i would have him at 40s
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Think he is thrown in..horses are bred to jump and he is a natural but very clever jumper ..close scrutiny of his form shows him just behing top novices he jumps and stays and will be handy..normally ground at aintree is not soft so expect him to start around 12s on the day..i keep betting him at the longer odds
remmeber twsiton davies first started running novices in the scottish natinal with a lot of success.. |
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True 7 year olds dominated the Welsh National in the 80`s. The stat for the 7 year olds in the Grand National looks bad, but i think the wrong type of horses have been entered over recent years. Many 2 milers and they are not likely to complete. Big Fella Thanks ran the best of them in recent years but i think Quinz could do better. I would let him bowl along so not to be put off by fallers and other carnage in the race, i think there could be more in tank than we have seen. I hope he goes well.
As for the weather forecast its due to pi$$ down on wednesday. Silver By Nature |
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on conventional courses,read above
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I agree, clearly there are doubts over how he will perform at the track, and with 40 runners but that applies to the majority of the participants in the race.
A handicap good thing that if trained by Nicholls and to be ridden by Walsh in my opinion would be single figures. Even if it is soft, that benefits the lower weighted horses of which Quinz is one. Time for me to back at 30+. I can afford to find out at that price. |
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I know its a game of opinions but i think your all crazy. The horse is a "clever jumper" what planet are you on he has been slow to learn in the first place and his best form is going right handed and this is just another example of the handicaper has pushed the connections to run in this race and they feel it now or never but its not always the best time in the horses career
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Hawkwing your cleasrly a bad judge of horses you should watch his race at Cheltenham wheh he jumped for fun and even had the comentator eulergising about his jumping that was on a right handed track where his flawless jumping had him trade at 1.7 with two to jump the third horse subsequently scooted up at the festival to frank the form placing Quinz about 10lb behind the best novices
He is very well in and wont have a better chance to win a big race |
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He's 20s NRNB with the bookies and 29 gross on here.
Which (I think) implies he's a 1/3 shot to run. I wouldnt be that confident, so if I were backing Quinz (which I'm not - too inexperienced) I'd take the 20s. |
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gambler99 i dont think iam the one who is a bad judge he may have improved this year but thats does not mean he has the qualitys for this race and he does not have them believe me he wont get round the first circuit just hope he comes back safe and sound
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Of the top dozen or so in the betting, this is the first one to strike off the list. Will not get round.
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People sayin it wont get round. I happen to think it may not get round either but what im saying is that is clearly factored into the price. . Gambling is all about value. At 16s after his Racing Post victory he was no bet, BUT for the people who dont think he is value now, what price would he need to be, for you to back him?
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value may be one thing but if you stongley feel he wont get round he could be any price he likes and still not back of him however i see your point and its all an assumption at the end of the day i may considerd backing if he was maybe 40s or 50s but even then i would rather look the horses who jump better in a race which has a lot of depth to it you have to rule some out somehow and jumping is a good place to start
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Well, I appear to have a little value of nowt else. The 30+ was always too big for me, and the current price now reflects the chance the horse holds. Stats are against the horse but stats give Dont Push It no chance and thats fav.
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