Horse Antepost
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24 Mar 11
20:40
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Date Joined:
09 May 05
Again i find myself wanting to back a 7 year old.
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Last 10yrs (Racecaller stats)
Age (Win-Place-Runners) 6yo: 0-0-8 7yo: 0-0-22 8yo: 1-9-66 9yo: 3-8-109 10yo: 4-6-89 11yo: 1-7-67 12yo: 1-0-28 13yo+: 0-0-10 |
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Thanks downallstar but i was after the finishing positions..but thanks
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99 2 - U/R, F
00 1 - F 01 2 - Both Fell 03 2 - 12th, PU 04 4 - 2 F, U/R, PU 05 1 - F 06 2 - 2 U/R 08 5 - 7th, 2 Fell, U/R 09 2 - 6th, Fell 10 4 - 9th, 13th, Fell, U/R Can go back further, is that enough AG? |
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That looks sh1t, FFS.
 5 finishers out of 25, best position 6th since 99. |
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Its a massive ask for a younger horse to jump round there over 4.5milers hence so many fallers.
The stats/trends for this race are quite strong, and if you look into them they do point towards a the need for plenty of experience. |
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Yeah, would seem a big ask. I've a few quid on Quinz, but think people are wise to the 7yo stat, or I think he'd be a shorter price.
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One of them will break the trends, but the stats do look shiit. Quinz could be the one. I backed Bid Fella Thanks in 09 and Tricky Trickster last year
 ...Quinz just looks the right type if you forget his age to me and has more improvement. |
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20% have at least completed since 99...and i would say many of them were 2 1/2 milers given impossible chances, but quinz is a strong galloper and his jumping has improved so much along with his attitude.
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AG....most of them were outsiders right enough.
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The national has a VERY interesting history, a 4yo
has won it and the oldest was 15 years old, it's not all that long since 6yo were barred from running until a M.PIPE horse showed a high standard of ability and the rule was recinded, size or height has a very wide range, THE LAMB being a very small horse (as the name suggests)and the biggest was Party Politics. |
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I know plenty of them were also 2 milers etc so unlikely to complete.7 year olds pop up and win the Scottish National and i remember that period in the 80`s when i think 7 year olds won 7 on the bounce in the Wwelsh National. I know Aintree is much tougher but i dont think the right horses have been entered at the age of 7. This is Quinz time possibly.
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Quinz is better going right handed
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You could have a point sint..but it might also be a load of bollox as apart from the Cheltenham race he has not raced left handed since his improvement this season.
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The single best run of Quinz is right handed but he doesn't appear to need to go that way. If you were watching The RP Chase and didn't know he was a 7yo, you wouldn't be be put off by anything you saw as regards his national chance.
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which horse won the RP chase several years ago that went on to run a cracker at Aintree before falling at the 17th ? It was ridden by A.Thornton I think ...
got into a great rhythm and traded at 4's in-running .. |
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Maybe Quinz is just better on a flat track
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No horse aged under 8 has won since 1940. Only 3 8yo winners in the last 30 years.
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French horses can peak early and if you get one that is a true stayer then that could break the trend.. I think Quinz race atr Chelters against Time For Rupert does not indicate he needs to go right handed. Flat track on good ground is the ticket i feel.
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sint, I think Simon is the nag you are thinking of.
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yeah he's the one. ran a blinder until falling.
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Yes Simon was looking like a potentional winner. Bid ungamely jockey on a small horse.
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