Horse Antepost
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Dubai Wolrd Cup takes place at Meydan on Saturday 26th March and will bring together some of the best horses from Europe, Asia, America, South Africa and the Middle East. Inaugurated in 1996, the race was run on dirt at Nad Al Sheba up until 2009, last year was the first year it was held at Meydan on a Tapeta surface. The change in surface means that some trends may be less significant for this year’s race.
Racecaller trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 4-5-35
5yo: 3-12-46
6yo: 2-2-24
7yo+: 1-0-11
No strong trends to be gleaned from the ages of the winners.
Gender
Mares (0-1-4) have gained 1 place from their 4 runners.
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in first 2 last time (7 won)
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 119+ last time out
10 of 10 winners had 1 or 2 runs that year
10 of 10 winners had run in past 60 days
10 of 10 winners had at least 9 career starts
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (exception won over 1M 1F)
8 of 10 winners had won a group/grade 1 (both exceptions were group 2 winners trained by Saeed Bin Suroor)
10 of 10 winners had won on the surface
Course Form
6 of 10 winners were course winners (3 of 4 exceptions having first start at track)
Al Maktoum Challenge R3 winner (Twice Over): 314301701 (3-2-9)
Al Maktoum Challenge R2 winner (DNR): 87134650 (1-1-8)
Al Maktoum Challenge R1 winner (DNR): 053 (0-1-3)
Previous season's UAE 2000 Guineas winner (Musir): 132 (1-2-3)
Previous season's UAE Derby winner (Musir): 3772 (0-2-4)
3 of 4 non-USA winners ran in Al Maktoum Challenge Rd 3, finishing 112
2 of 4 non-USA winners ran in Al Maktoum Challenge Rd 2, finishing 11
All 4 non-USA winners had won Rd 2 or 3 of the Al Maktoum Challenge.
Other Races
Goodwood Stakes winner (Richards Kid): 1716 (2-0-4)
Irish Champion Stakes winner (Cape Blanco): 4 (0-0-1)
Tenno Sho winner (Buena Vista): 6 (0-0-1)
Japan Dirt Cup (Transcend): 740 (0-0-3)
February Stakes winner (Transcend): 6840 (0-0-4)
5 of 6 American trained winners ran in the Breeders' Cup Classic, finishing 31211 (exception ran in BC Mile)
3 of 6 American trained winners ran in Donn H’cap last time, finishing 121
2 of 6 American trained winners ran in San Antonio H’cap last time, finishing 12
3 of 6 American-trained winners ran in Goodwood Stakes, finishing 211
2 of 6 American-trained winners ran in San Antonio H’cap last time, finishing 12
2 of 6 American-trained winners ran in Kentucky Classic Cup, finishing 11
2 of 6 American-trained winners ran in Whitney Handicap, finishing 11
2 of 2 American-trained 4yo winners ran in previous Preakness, finishing 41
2 of 2 American-trained 4yo winners ran in previous Kentucky Derby, finishing 83
2 of 2 American-trained 4yo winners ran in Haskell Invitational, finishing 23
Trainers
USA-trained: 6-7-32
Godolphin: 3-1-16
France: 1-2-8
South Africa: 0-4-9
Great Britain: 0-2-10
Other: 0-3-40
Since this race was inaugurated in 1996 American trainers have won 8 of 15 runnings and only twice have they failed to produce placed finisher, in 2002 when they had only one representative at 20/1 and last year, when the race was run on Tapeta instead of dirt for the first time. The new surface could spell an end to their dominance.
Saeed Bin Suroor (3-1-15) won the race 5 times between 1999 and 2006 but his 4 runners in the past 4 years have all finisher unplaced.
Bob Baffert (1-0-2) trained the winner in 2001.
Mike De Kock (0-3-7) has seen 3 of his 7 runners make the frame, while Mahmood Al Zarooni (0-1-1) and Christophe Clement (0-1-2) have each saddled one placed finisher.
Price
8 of 10 winners were priced shorter than 5/1 & came from first 2 in market
From 2000 to 2008 every running of this race had gone to one of the first two in the betting however the last 2 winners have gone off 10/1 and 16/1, possibly instigated by a drop in quality in the race.
Favourites (5-3-11) have won of 5 of the last 10 but still show a level stakes loss of 0.39.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Finished in the first 2 last time, posting an RPR of 119+
• Run once or twice this year
• Ran in the past 60 days
• Won a grade/group 1
• Won over 1M 2F
• Course winner (or having first start here)
• Won Rd 2 or 3 of the Al Maktoum Challenge
• Finished in first 3 in Breeders Cup Classic and/or Goodwood Stakes
• Finished in first 2 San Antonio or Donn Handicap last time
• Trained in America or from Godolphin operation
Racecaller trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 4-5-35
5yo: 3-12-46
6yo: 2-2-24
7yo+: 1-0-11
No strong trends to be gleaned from the ages of the winners.
Gender
Mares (0-1-4) have gained 1 place from their 4 runners.
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in first 2 last time (7 won)
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 119+ last time out
10 of 10 winners had 1 or 2 runs that year
10 of 10 winners had run in past 60 days
10 of 10 winners had at least 9 career starts
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (exception won over 1M 1F)
8 of 10 winners had won a group/grade 1 (both exceptions were group 2 winners trained by Saeed Bin Suroor)
10 of 10 winners had won on the surface
Course Form
6 of 10 winners were course winners (3 of 4 exceptions having first start at track)
Al Maktoum Challenge R3 winner (Twice Over): 314301701 (3-2-9)
Al Maktoum Challenge R2 winner (DNR): 87134650 (1-1-8)
Al Maktoum Challenge R1 winner (DNR): 053 (0-1-3)
Previous season's UAE 2000 Guineas winner (Musir): 132 (1-2-3)
Previous season's UAE Derby winner (Musir): 3772 (0-2-4)
3 of 4 non-USA winners ran in Al Maktoum Challenge Rd 3, finishing 112
2 of 4 non-USA winners ran in Al Maktoum Challenge Rd 2, finishing 11
All 4 non-USA winners had won Rd 2 or 3 of the Al Maktoum Challenge.
Other Races
Goodwood Stakes winner (Richards Kid): 1716 (2-0-4)
Irish Champion Stakes winner (Cape Blanco): 4 (0-0-1)
Tenno Sho winner (Buena Vista): 6 (0-0-1)
Japan Dirt Cup (Transcend): 740 (0-0-3)
February Stakes winner (Transcend): 6840 (0-0-4)
5 of 6 American trained winners ran in the Breeders' Cup Classic, finishing 31211 (exception ran in BC Mile)
3 of 6 American trained winners ran in Donn H’cap last time, finishing 121
2 of 6 American trained winners ran in San Antonio H’cap last time, finishing 12
3 of 6 American-trained winners ran in Goodwood Stakes, finishing 211
2 of 6 American-trained winners ran in San Antonio H’cap last time, finishing 12
2 of 6 American-trained winners ran in Kentucky Classic Cup, finishing 11
2 of 6 American-trained winners ran in Whitney Handicap, finishing 11
2 of 2 American-trained 4yo winners ran in previous Preakness, finishing 41
2 of 2 American-trained 4yo winners ran in previous Kentucky Derby, finishing 83
2 of 2 American-trained 4yo winners ran in Haskell Invitational, finishing 23
Trainers
USA-trained: 6-7-32
Godolphin: 3-1-16
France: 1-2-8
South Africa: 0-4-9
Great Britain: 0-2-10
Other: 0-3-40
Since this race was inaugurated in 1996 American trainers have won 8 of 15 runnings and only twice have they failed to produce placed finisher, in 2002 when they had only one representative at 20/1 and last year, when the race was run on Tapeta instead of dirt for the first time. The new surface could spell an end to their dominance.
Saeed Bin Suroor (3-1-15) won the race 5 times between 1999 and 2006 but his 4 runners in the past 4 years have all finisher unplaced.
Bob Baffert (1-0-2) trained the winner in 2001.
Mike De Kock (0-3-7) has seen 3 of his 7 runners make the frame, while Mahmood Al Zarooni (0-1-1) and Christophe Clement (0-1-2) have each saddled one placed finisher.
Price
8 of 10 winners were priced shorter than 5/1 & came from first 2 in market
From 2000 to 2008 every running of this race had gone to one of the first two in the betting however the last 2 winners have gone off 10/1 and 16/1, possibly instigated by a drop in quality in the race.
Favourites (5-3-11) have won of 5 of the last 10 but still show a level stakes loss of 0.39.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Finished in the first 2 last time, posting an RPR of 119+
• Run once or twice this year
• Ran in the past 60 days
• Won a grade/group 1
• Won over 1M 2F
• Course winner (or having first start here)
• Won Rd 2 or 3 of the Al Maktoum Challenge
• Finished in first 3 in Breeders Cup Classic and/or Goodwood Stakes
• Finished in first 2 San Antonio or Donn Handicap last time
• Trained in America or from Godolphin operation
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Replies: 4
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so who wins?
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if you're looking at the yanks, maybe Fly Down who 2nd in both the Belmont Stks and Travers & was 3rd in the Breeders Cup Classic behind Blame and Zenyatta. clearly needed further than the 1m1f on his first start this year. question mark over surface but at 25/1 could be worth takign a chance I think
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A race to dodge,imo
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the horse that thrashed fly down last time is running on saturday at fair grounds.
might be the better bet. |