Horse Antepost
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Year Winner Official Rating Last Run Wins On AW Previous Career Best
2010 Tranquil Tiger 112 19th Dec 2 Pick Of 7 Listed Races
2009 Scintillo 106 18th Mar 1 Listed AW Race At Kempton
2008 Hattan 105 4th Nov 1 Turf Listed Race
2007 Gentleman's Deal 108 4th Feb 6 Listed AW Race At Kempton
2006 Sri Diamond 105 4th Feb 4 Handicap Off 86
2005 Eccentric 104 26th Feb 6 Winter Derby Trial
2004 Caluki N/A 29th Feb 1 French AW Listed Race
2003 Parasol 105 22nd Feb 1 Winter Derby Trial
2002 Adiemus 100 23rd Feb 3 Winter Derby Trial
So we are looking for horses rated 100 or more, with a recent run and at least one win on the surface. Most have won at listed level and/or won a recognised trial for this race during the winter. Also worth noting that most winners raced prominently.
That only leaves Nideeb, Pachattack and Dansili Dancer. The former two have been off since November, the most recent horse to defy that sort of break was trained Clive Brittain which is good news for Nideeb backers. Nideeb has two easy wins in his only races over course and distance, lost nothing in defeat over further at Kempton last time and looks very solid.
Pachattack has only raced at Lingfield once, coming third off 101 in a competitive handicap. Would struggle to win on that form but seems best when dominating, so would have a chance if adopting that style of racing. I wouldn't want to back it before the race, would look in running after a furlong if its got to the front.
Dansili Dancer has not won over this distance for five years and if there was ever a course where he won't get away with ten furlongs it is Lingfield. Can't see him placing unless there is a furious gallap (very unlikely).
Of the remainder I'd expect Suits Me to run well, especially if Pachattack doesn't run or doesnt lead and if other front runners such as Shamali aren't declared. Came second to Tranquil Tiger (the highest rated winner in ten years) last year and got no run whatsoever in the race the year before. Has finished second six times at Lingfield and third twice in thirteen runs (as well as his two wins, one of which was in this season's Winter Derby Trial, or at least what used to be that race).
The likes of Nice Style, Shamali, Layline, Silver Grey and Baylini simply don't look good enough, certainly to win, perhaps Nice Style or Layline culd run into a place if getting the race run to suit.
Predicted outcome:
1. Nideeb (currently 11/4)
2. Suits Me (currently 14/1)
3. Pachattack (currently 6/1)
Thoughts?
2010 Tranquil Tiger 112 19th Dec 2 Pick Of 7 Listed Races
2009 Scintillo 106 18th Mar 1 Listed AW Race At Kempton
2008 Hattan 105 4th Nov 1 Turf Listed Race
2007 Gentleman's Deal 108 4th Feb 6 Listed AW Race At Kempton
2006 Sri Diamond 105 4th Feb 4 Handicap Off 86
2005 Eccentric 104 26th Feb 6 Winter Derby Trial
2004 Caluki N/A 29th Feb 1 French AW Listed Race
2003 Parasol 105 22nd Feb 1 Winter Derby Trial
2002 Adiemus 100 23rd Feb 3 Winter Derby Trial
So we are looking for horses rated 100 or more, with a recent run and at least one win on the surface. Most have won at listed level and/or won a recognised trial for this race during the winter. Also worth noting that most winners raced prominently.
That only leaves Nideeb, Pachattack and Dansili Dancer. The former two have been off since November, the most recent horse to defy that sort of break was trained Clive Brittain which is good news for Nideeb backers. Nideeb has two easy wins in his only races over course and distance, lost nothing in defeat over further at Kempton last time and looks very solid.
Pachattack has only raced at Lingfield once, coming third off 101 in a competitive handicap. Would struggle to win on that form but seems best when dominating, so would have a chance if adopting that style of racing. I wouldn't want to back it before the race, would look in running after a furlong if its got to the front.
Dansili Dancer has not won over this distance for five years and if there was ever a course where he won't get away with ten furlongs it is Lingfield. Can't see him placing unless there is a furious gallap (very unlikely).
Of the remainder I'd expect Suits Me to run well, especially if Pachattack doesn't run or doesnt lead and if other front runners such as Shamali aren't declared. Came second to Tranquil Tiger (the highest rated winner in ten years) last year and got no run whatsoever in the race the year before. Has finished second six times at Lingfield and third twice in thirteen runs (as well as his two wins, one of which was in this season's Winter Derby Trial, or at least what used to be that race).
The likes of Nice Style, Shamali, Layline, Silver Grey and Baylini simply don't look good enough, certainly to win, perhaps Nice Style or Layline culd run into a place if getting the race run to suit.
Predicted outcome:
1. Nideeb (currently 11/4)
2. Suits Me (currently 14/1)
3. Pachattack (currently 6/1)
Thoughts?
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Not one for the all weather personally but nice write up. Looks a poor race on paper and the favourite looks short at 11/4. Quite like the filly Pachattack here. Looks to be an improver and Butler has his string in form. Gets the fillies allowance and worth a punt. 1pt win at 6-1 for me. Probabably be a five horse bob on the line.
I have taken an interest in this race for ten years and this is a shocking renewal, by far the worst I can recall. I simply can't see beyond Nideeb. The race is a Listed race - at best - in all but name, and he should have a 3lb penalty against this lot. I agree that Suits Me is dangerous here is getting an easy lead. Poor race though. Thank god for Dubai!!
Trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 0-1-3
4yo: 4-7-45
5yo: 1-7-36
6yo: 4-1-24
7yo+: 1-4-25
6yos have won 4 of the last 5 runnings of this race.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 100 or higher: 8-14-69
Horses rated 99 or lower: 1-5-44
Horses with no rating: 1-1-20
8 of last 9 winners were officially rated 100 or higher with the exception not having an official rating as it was his first start in Britain.
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won last time out
9 of 10 winners won 1 of their last 2 all-weather starts (exception hadn't run on the all-weather in previous 12 months)
8 of 10 winners had already run that year
8 of 10 winners won over 1M 2F or further
10 of 10 winners had previously won on the all-weather
8 of 10 winners had previously run 1 to 5 times on the all-weather
5 of 10 winners had won at Lingfield (3 of 5 exceptions were having first course start)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won at class 2 level or above (since it became a group 3, 4 of 5 winners had won a listed or group race)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won a race worth 14K+
Other Races
Previous year's winner: 20 (0-1-2)
Churchill Stakes winner (Nideeb): 38951 (1-1-5)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Lingfield Winter Derby Trial, finishing 1113
3 of 10 winners ran in a 1M 2F C3 Lingfield h’cap in Feb, finishing 112
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in the Quebec Stakes, finishing 51
Trainers
Clive Brittain (1-0-7) is the only trainer with an entry this year to have trained the winner in the past 10 years.
Gerard Butler (0-3-9) has gained 3 places from 9 runners while Brian Meehan (0-1-1) & Tom Tate (0-1-2) have each trained a placed finisher.
Draw
Horses drawn 1 to 7: 7-10-70
Horses drawn 8 to 14: 3-10-63
There is slight preference for horses drawn 7 or lower.
Price
7 of 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below.
No strong trend on the prices with 7 of the 10 winners coming from the first 5 in the betting but there have been a few surprises at 25/1 and 14/1 twice in last 10 years.
Favourites (4-2-12) have won of 4 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 1.00.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 4 to 6 (preferably 6)
· Officially rated 100+
· Won last time out
· Won over 1M 2F+
· Won 1 of last 2 all-weather starts
· Run 1 to 5 times on the all-weather
· Course winner (or having first start at Lingfield)
· Won a listed or group race worth 14K+
· Drawn 1 to 7
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 0-1-3
4yo: 4-7-45
5yo: 1-7-36
6yo: 4-1-24
7yo+: 1-4-25
6yos have won 4 of the last 5 runnings of this race.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 100 or higher: 8-14-69
Horses rated 99 or lower: 1-5-44
Horses with no rating: 1-1-20
8 of last 9 winners were officially rated 100 or higher with the exception not having an official rating as it was his first start in Britain.
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won last time out
9 of 10 winners won 1 of their last 2 all-weather starts (exception hadn't run on the all-weather in previous 12 months)
8 of 10 winners had already run that year
8 of 10 winners won over 1M 2F or further
10 of 10 winners had previously won on the all-weather
8 of 10 winners had previously run 1 to 5 times on the all-weather
5 of 10 winners had won at Lingfield (3 of 5 exceptions were having first course start)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won at class 2 level or above (since it became a group 3, 4 of 5 winners had won a listed or group race)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won a race worth 14K+
Other Races
Previous year's winner: 20 (0-1-2)
Churchill Stakes winner (Nideeb): 38951 (1-1-5)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Lingfield Winter Derby Trial, finishing 1113
3 of 10 winners ran in a 1M 2F C3 Lingfield h’cap in Feb, finishing 112
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in the Quebec Stakes, finishing 51
Trainers
Clive Brittain (1-0-7) is the only trainer with an entry this year to have trained the winner in the past 10 years.
Gerard Butler (0-3-9) has gained 3 places from 9 runners while Brian Meehan (0-1-1) & Tom Tate (0-1-2) have each trained a placed finisher.
Draw
Horses drawn 1 to 7: 7-10-70
Horses drawn 8 to 14: 3-10-63
There is slight preference for horses drawn 7 or lower.
Price
7 of 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below.
No strong trend on the prices with 7 of the 10 winners coming from the first 5 in the betting but there have been a few surprises at 25/1 and 14/1 twice in last 10 years.
Favourites (4-2-12) have won of 4 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 1.00.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 4 to 6 (preferably 6)
· Officially rated 100+
· Won last time out
· Won over 1M 2F+
· Won 1 of last 2 all-weather starts
· Run 1 to 5 times on the all-weather
· Course winner (or having first start at Lingfield)
· Won a listed or group race worth 14K+
· Drawn 1 to 7
The normal stats don't throw up anything unusual.
It's a Group 3 race so likely winner should be rated 100+
Most winners of a Group race at this time of year would be 4yo+
I add some other stats (Past winners);
Win in last 2 runs (10-12)
Last win in Listed race (10-12)
Ran full season prev year ending either Nov/Dec (10-12)
If not run this year then won FTO in one or more years of racing (2-3 qualifiers)
The same three already mentioned still come out best though,
NIDEEB
PACHATTACK
DANSILI DANCER
Nideeb fails only on Winner FTO in any year of racing.
Clive Brittain has won it with Hattan but failed on six other occasions.
Trainer has decent AW record for Listed/Group 3 races at Lingfield/Distance
Pachattack won 61k AW race at Woodbine in Nov but she is another that has not won FTO in a season of racing.
Trainer has good AW record for listed/Group3 races at Lingfield and distance but not had a filly/mare win against geldings/horses.
Dansili Dancer is 9yo. Only won at Kempton AW (right hand) but did win FTO last year.
Trainer has low AW record with Listed/Group 3 runners.
It's a Group 3 race so likely winner should be rated 100+
Most winners of a Group race at this time of year would be 4yo+
I add some other stats (Past winners);
Win in last 2 runs (10-12)
Last win in Listed race (10-12)
Ran full season prev year ending either Nov/Dec (10-12)
If not run this year then won FTO in one or more years of racing (2-3 qualifiers)
The same three already mentioned still come out best though,
NIDEEB
PACHATTACK
DANSILI DANCER
Nideeb fails only on Winner FTO in any year of racing.
Clive Brittain has won it with Hattan but failed on six other occasions.
Trainer has decent AW record for Listed/Group 3 races at Lingfield/Distance
Pachattack won 61k AW race at Woodbine in Nov but she is another that has not won FTO in a season of racing.
Trainer has good AW record for listed/Group3 races at Lingfield and distance but not had a filly/mare win against geldings/horses.
Dansili Dancer is 9yo. Only won at Kempton AW (right hand) but did win FTO last year.
Trainer has low AW record with Listed/Group 3 runners.
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