Horse Antepost
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He reminds me quite a lot of Sea The Stars at the same stage. Of course he is very unlikely to get within 7 lbs of that one's 3yo rating but I think there is something quite wrong about the assumed profile of this horse.
Because he won first time out over a mile in a bog, and because his dam is by Persian Bold with a high stamina index, its sort of assumed that he will be too slow for the guineas and will be more of a Derby type.
This is not at all certain and, in fact, the speed he showed in a good to firm group 3 over 7 furlongs make me pretty convinced that he will not lose the 2000 Guineas for lack of pace.
Just like it was assumed Sea The Stars would need further at 3, Dubai Prince is short for Epsom but huge for the guineas at around the same time of year.
He is a quite unexposed horse, very nicely bred indeed with an unbeaten but improving record and far better form and with greater scope than a number above him in the betting.
Its very interesting that he has been kept in the Guineas at the latest forfeit stage.
I am of the view that Frankel is going to be better over more than a mile, but would concede that if he does train on well he will be a tad tricky to beat in the Guineas.
However Frankel is 5/4 and ubai Prince is backable now and then on here at well over 40/1.
Because he won first time out over a mile in a bog, and because his dam is by Persian Bold with a high stamina index, its sort of assumed that he will be too slow for the guineas and will be more of a Derby type.
This is not at all certain and, in fact, the speed he showed in a good to firm group 3 over 7 furlongs make me pretty convinced that he will not lose the 2000 Guineas for lack of pace.
Just like it was assumed Sea The Stars would need further at 3, Dubai Prince is short for Epsom but huge for the guineas at around the same time of year.
He is a quite unexposed horse, very nicely bred indeed with an unbeaten but improving record and far better form and with greater scope than a number above him in the betting.
Its very interesting that he has been kept in the Guineas at the latest forfeit stage.
I am of the view that Frankel is going to be better over more than a mile, but would concede that if he does train on well he will be a tad tricky to beat in the Guineas.
However Frankel is 5/4 and ubai Prince is backable now and then on here at well over 40/1.
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I'm in complete agreement with you, COT. I've not got involved in the 2000 Guineas this year, but if I were looking to take on the favourite with an each-way alternative, then Dubai Prince would be one of a handful of horses I would consider.
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He is not woth Dermot Weld anymore though is he ?
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He's now with Godolphin and Mahmood Al Zarooni.
From a breeding perspective Persian Bold is an odd one when it comes to stamina. The RP data is just his sire record, not his dam sire record. His highest probabilities of being the damsire of a 100+ rated three year old are fairly even between 6 1/2 and 8 1/2 furlongs or 12 furlongs plus. The distances in between are the lowest. My guess from this, and only a guess, is that when an attempt is made to inject speed into a Persian Bold mare it works to the removal of stamina, you don't get in between. |
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yeah he left weld, pity!! wouldnt touch him now!funny how the credibility instantly disapears when godolphin get their hands on one!
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...for me anyway!
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Big fan of this fella as well, is he likely to run in the Guineas lads? If he shows up I could see him going off at around 16/1
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Did a little bit of research, looking at Godolphin's 3yo colts in conditions races last April.
Chabal, subsequently disqualified, won the group 3 Classic Trial at Sandown. Ameer came a very close second in the 10f sales race at Newmarket. Sowaylm came a very close second in the 8f conditions race at Sandown. That's it. 3 horses ran, and none went on to show themselves any better than that form. In other words, they were perfectly fit and ready to do themselves justice first time up, in April. It's only one season's sample, and a small one at that, but gives some hope at least to Dubai Prince backers. He has a similar profile to Footstepsinthesands, albeit not winning over 6f prior to the Kilavullan. Nevertheless, stamina has always struck me as the underestimated factor (sprinting speed overestimated) in the Guineas calculations. Assuming Frankel is fit and well on the day, I think it's a safe bet that, like New Approach, he'll finish first or second. However, as the very poor record of favourites suggests, it is perfectly possible that one colt will have made the necessary improvement over the winter to nudge him into second. Horses who have made that leap over the last 18 years include Entrepreneur, Makfi, Golan, Island Sands and Mark Of Esteem. Shamardal is the right sort of sire for the Guineas, and I hope this colt lines up for what could be a vintage renewal. |
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I would have thought that info was a negative, Howellsy. They seem to run one good race and then disappear for the season. This happens with a lot of horses transferred from Mark Johnson to SBS, they appear to take 12 months to full adjust to the new surroundings and training methods, though I have no stats to back that up, just my own mind judgement.
Al Zhaarooni did squeeze two wins from Rewilding after being transferred from Fabre, which is a positive. |
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Sintonian, if you've backed Dubai Prince for the Guineas, it's a positive if you think he's going to be at his best first time up. You can still be counting your money when he fails to progress thereafter.
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Yes fair point.
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I was thinking long term, but we might be making something of nothing. Al Zharooni clearly know what he is doing,innit.
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taking the horse away from a world class trainer is ludicris but then again its his money!!the horse wont be half the hose it could have been with weld! was so promising albeit al zharooni seems to know a bit more about training horse thn the bin which has to be a positive!
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On ability he is definitely a big e/w player and 40/1 is way too big, but the move to Dubai is a definite negative, though maybe Al Zharooni can get his horses ready for N'mkt better than Bin Suroor has done for the last decade.
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He has drifted out again to a backable price.
With Howelsey and me in agreement backed up by jamesp how can he lose? I suppose Frankel is one good reason..... |
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i'll give you another 2 - Godolphin, April
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To be fair, Godolphin have not had many fancied Guineas runners in recent years. There is no earthly reason why their horses shouldn't be ready for the Guineas in late April/ early May. They're in very good form right now, so maybe they peak too soon (i.e. in March!)
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you may have a point as their poor starts seem to have coincided with the emergence of the festival. They seem to be in great form every year until they get here! Would also argue though that there is a world of difference between the quality of the racing out there and over here.
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i'd back him on the day of race privded reports are positive. He is still likely to be double figures given the strenght of the opposition.
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GODOLPHIN have a "serious Derby horse" on their hands in the shape of Dubai Prince says the three-year-old's former trainer Dermot Weld.
A son of Shamardal, Dubai Prince left Weld's stable for Mahmood Al Zarooni at the end of last season with two victories from as many starts, including the Group 3 JRA Killavullen Stakes. And Weld believes Dubai Prince is capable of giving Godolphin a first success in the Investec Derby, for which he will have to be supplemented but is as short as 10-1 with William Hill, Blue Square and ****. The trainer said on At The Races: "He's a very, very high-class horse and is certainly the best two-year-old colt that I have trained since Grey Swallow. "If everything goes to plan he'll be a serious horse come Derby time, as the horses he has beaten are top class andhe's a very good Group winner." |
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I'm inferring that Weld doesn't think he's got the speed for the Guineas? Would have been nice if he'd been asked. The phrase "very, very high class horse" is striking. If we get a bit of give in the ground at Newmarket he might be in with a shout if he's got as much class as Weld seems to think.
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Casamento shaping up as Godolphin's Derby hope
BY GRAHAM DENCH 10:55AM 23 MAR 2011 CASAMENTO, impressive winner of the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy last year, appears to be emergingas Godolphin's main Investec Derby contender, while Dubai Prince could carry their hopes in the 2,000 Guineas. The top-class colts - both by Shamardal - started their careers in Ireland but have been transferred to Mahmood Al Zarooni over the winter and figure prominently in the betting for the 2,000 Guineas and Derby. The former Michael Halford-trained Casamento canbe backed at 12-1 for both Classics and Godolphin's racing manager Simon Crisford said on Wednesday: "He's obviously in the Guineas, but whether he runs there or goes for the Dante, a decision will be made closer to the time. "He's got the speed for the Guineas, I'm not saying he hasn't, but we're in the fortunate position that we've got two for the Guineas and what we are going to do when we get back to Europe is to pick the right races for the right horses." Dubai Prince, whom former trainer Dermot Weld described as a "serious Derby horse" last week, is 20-1 with Stan James for the Guineas, but Crisford added: "He's got a good turn of foot and will stay, but he's got plenty of speed to run over a mile. "It's whether we keep to that trip or step him up - I think he'll probably start off over a mile. " Crisford also said the promising Saamidd, who finished last of six in the Dubai Dewhurst Stakes, was "as forward in his training as we'd like him to be." |
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Saamid still interests me tbh. Blatantly did not give his running in the dewhurst and was very worked up/muleish before the start.
Would love to see him line up on Good to Firm. |
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The quote from Crisford would suggest Dubai Prince is there principal Guineas horse - well done if you got on at fancy prices, might well be single figures on the day
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Casamento shaping up as Godolphin's Derby hope
BY GRAHAM DENCH 10:55AM 23 MAR 2011 CASAMENTO, impressive winner of the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy last year, appears to be emergingas Godolphin's main Investec Derby contender, while Dubai Prince could carry their hopes in the 2,000 Guineas. The top-class colts - both by Shamardal - started their careers in Ireland but have been transferred to Mahmood Al Zarooni over the winter and figure prominently in the betting for the 2,000 Guineas and Derby. The former Michael Halford-trained Casamento canbe backed at 12-1 for both Classics and Godolphin's racing manager Simon Crisford said on Wednesday: "He's obviously in the Guineas, but whether he runs there or goes for the Dante, a decision will be made closer to the time. "He's got the speed for the Guineas, I'm not saying he hasn't, but we're in the fortunate position that we've got two for the Guineas and what we are going to do when we get back to Europe is to pick the right races for the right horses." [smiley:crazy] Dubai Prince, whom former trainer Dermot Weld described as a "serious Derby horse" last week, is 20-1 with Stan James for the Guineas, but Crisford added: "He's got a good turn of foot and will stay, but he's got plenty of speed to run over a mile. "It's whether we keep to that trip or step him up - I think he'll probably start off over a mile. " Crisford also said the promising Saamidd, who finished last of six in the Dubai Dewhurst Stakes, was "as forward in his training as we'd like him to be." oh so THATS what theyre going to do, they really are a clueless outfit,pathetic!' pick the right races for the right horses', finally getting the hang of what theyre supposed to be doing! CLUELESS! |
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I see Dubai Prince has shortened and is now down to 20/1 top price and can only be laid on here at 24. A bit different from the 55 I got and kept getting for quite a while after this thread started.
I am personally not that certain about Dubai Prince for the Derby (not wishing to disagree with a man as great as Mr Weld). He is certainly not as stoutly bred as Frankel, and his run over 7 furlongs looks very fancy indeed. If he does stay 12 furlongs he is likely to be pretty good though. Anyway good luck if you got on at decent guineas prices - you have a healthy bet to nothing if you trade out just now. |
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 it seems at last they know what to do, ilikewavingatbuses |
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Thought Chrisford was saying they have 2 Guneas hopes .. we'll see I suppose th may run one of them in France
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i dont like to be anti godolphin as i have no real vendetta against them but ive just seen so many horses simply go backwards for going to them. we are all essentially missing out on what could have been! sure there are no doubt a fes that may have been good at 2 and went to them and showed nothing and it would have been the same with any other traine but no doubt theres others that would have excelled if left with the likes of weld, johnston or fabre etc etc...
frankie is a brilliant jockey and they will have billiant 2 yr olds this yr again as they always do from june onwards but the trips to dubai are simply no tgood for the horses fom what i can see! i really like casamento and dubai and of course they have to be respected and winning one of them winning one or both of the classics is v possible (obviously) but the fact that they have gone to godolphin instantly makes me look elsewhere. i lie saeed bin, hes a nice guy but hes not a v good trainer, hes not dermot weld with all due respect!! anyway, rant over, i wish them all the best, hope the horses run well in the classics, maybe al zaroo will do something diff to the norm who knows. looking forward to seeing saamidd again, feel he could be really good if he gets his head together and gets good ground, looking forwad to him v much so! |
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Agree with most of the last lot really. Given the amazing amount of dosh thrown at Godolphin they have underperformed. anumber of very promising types have gone to Godolphin at the end of their 2yo careers and never get even seen again.
A couple of things though. when they started they had classic winners, like Ballanchine, Markofesteem and island Sands, and everyone started to send their flat horses away for a warm winter break in case it gave them an edge. maybe they have just had a long run of having not many good horses. Maybe they have hit the jackpot with Dubai Prince. |
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sorry lads hope not ive bloody laid him at 85 for 15 quid
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Where did you do this - the last price matched on here was 23 and there is money queueing for him down to 30 just now.
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Last price matched was actually 21!
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0.06p at 50 6/3/11
2.94 at 55 6/3/11 2.00 at 60 28/2/11 10.00 at 100 17/2/11 |
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are they going to boycott the guineas
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ekisjon
I would be very tempted to accept a smaller loss and back him at 24 or whatever if I were you. I have a sneaking suspicion that this horse is going to get a serious write up in the Timeform Annual when its released, and the write up is going to say "get on for the 2000 Guineas". In my view backing at 23 or better will very likely lead to a great chance top trade out at a profit later, as he looks very likely to shorten more yet. |
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not too worried at the moment,as long frankel stays sound but yes i ewill back dubai , ive also layed casamento for over a hundred that seems very likely not too run according to the marketand the above posts
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hes a godolphin runner, thats pretty much done its chance imo.
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Any news?
Does look more a more likely Guineas runner than Casamento, but no concrete support thus far. |
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Fancy Dubai Prince for the Derby myself as I can't see Casamento staying 1m4f. Both by Shamardal (who was a 1m-10f horse) but much more stamina on the immediate dams side of Dubai Princes' pedigree.
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