Horse Antepost
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Think this horse has an outstanding chance in this race...
Won the race 2 years ago, was beaten by a neck last year but pulled 25 lengths away from the 3rd horse... remember he did make a serious mistake in the race despite being beaten. He ran on soft ground last year which was not ideal... not much rain forecast so must be in with a shout. AP not on board this time but Paddy Brennan had the choice of last years winner (who is nicely weighted) but chose Nacarat I consider that a tip on its own.
Top weight do really well in this race.... Gangudu, Farmer Jack and Marlborough, and is only 2lb higher compared from last year... so Id rather back him than anything else in the race.
As for the others top of the market, Fistral Beach unseated in the race last year, has had a breathing operation since, has a nice racing weight, but Nicholls has won the race with top weights, seems like a race where highly rated horses do well in this... I wouldnt back this horse at 5's.. McCoy fantastic jockey but not sure his style will suit this horse... considering he unseated last year
Quinz - i respect this horse has course form, Hobbs does well in this race is one to consider... also has Mostly Bob like to see which of his horses he fances
Razor royal Sam on board taking 3lb off so 1lb lower than last year, has not run in three months so a bit of a concern and Brennan did not consider him unless NTD wanted Sam for the weight allowance... so will check trainers comments on the day before backing this one...
Backbenscher - Dont really fancy this horse... King bigs up his horses in Handicaps and after 1 good run follows a bad one. Good example is Walkon... I think this horse needs a rest between races so not that confident with this selection, wont fall for Kings hype
Of the outsiders I like Door Boy each way reckon the course will suit but dont think it will win...decent each way though
But definately fancy Nacarat maximum stake win
good luck...!
Won the race 2 years ago, was beaten by a neck last year but pulled 25 lengths away from the 3rd horse... remember he did make a serious mistake in the race despite being beaten. He ran on soft ground last year which was not ideal... not much rain forecast so must be in with a shout. AP not on board this time but Paddy Brennan had the choice of last years winner (who is nicely weighted) but chose Nacarat I consider that a tip on its own.
Top weight do really well in this race.... Gangudu, Farmer Jack and Marlborough, and is only 2lb higher compared from last year... so Id rather back him than anything else in the race.
As for the others top of the market, Fistral Beach unseated in the race last year, has had a breathing operation since, has a nice racing weight, but Nicholls has won the race with top weights, seems like a race where highly rated horses do well in this... I wouldnt back this horse at 5's.. McCoy fantastic jockey but not sure his style will suit this horse... considering he unseated last year
Quinz - i respect this horse has course form, Hobbs does well in this race is one to consider... also has Mostly Bob like to see which of his horses he fances
Razor royal Sam on board taking 3lb off so 1lb lower than last year, has not run in three months so a bit of a concern and Brennan did not consider him unless NTD wanted Sam for the weight allowance... so will check trainers comments on the day before backing this one...
Backbenscher - Dont really fancy this horse... King bigs up his horses in Handicaps and after 1 good run follows a bad one. Good example is Walkon... I think this horse needs a rest between races so not that confident with this selection, wont fall for Kings hype
Of the outsiders I like Door Boy each way reckon the course will suit but dont think it will win...decent each way though
But definately fancy Nacarat maximum stake win
good luck...!
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Needs a bit further than a mile and is a bit old for the race
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Totally agree IDB, backed him last week at 8's, love this big grey.
Looks like he's going to get his ground as there doesn't seem to have been much rain down there this week and none forecast before the race. He was travelling so well for so long in the KG before going out like a light. Hopefully his recent wind op will have worked and he runs a big race at the weekend  |
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hI Zilzal, 3 miles is perfect with this horse, when he ran in the King George last year, he was leading upto 3 miles and then got tired last two furlongs, so I think he struggles further than 3 miles...
A 12 yr old and a 10 year old had won this in the last 10 years of which one had top weight, so can defy the age stat... on last years running... I think he is the one to beat... |
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And then he's in The Craven Stakes next is he?
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There was talk of him running in the Ryanir but whether that's still the case I don't know
15Jan11 He'll get an entry in the Ryanair, and I think 2m5f round Cheltenham might be ideal for him now. He wouldn't have liked it before, but he moves a lot better now and I think he'll handle it. There was just a glimmer of hope four out, but he just struggledto get home in that ground. He's run a very solid race though, and better ground would have helped - Tom George, trainer |
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I think Iris is not getting the Irony bit
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I like both Razor Royale and Crescent Island--Twiston-Davies is getting a lot of success targeting his horses at big hcaps and is getting more discriminating at the sort of test his types need.
Lightly raced, lightly weighted types like Fistral Beach and Mostly Bob do well in this, but the books are not giving us any favour with the price. Quinz has seemed to me to have attitude as well as health probs, Sagalyrique may be too untested at a fast pace and I find it hard to believe Tatenen has been targted at the race. Hey big Spender is badly weighted. Door Boy would have a good chance on best form but I am doubtful of Howard Johnson's ability to ready one for a big hcap in the south. I'm on Nacarat at 8s and Razor at 20s and see no need to have any more bets, tho' I'm looking to add Door Boy and Crescent Island at tasty prices. Good luck all |
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In terms of betting on the race, I can see Pricewise being Bakbenscher or Nacarat (praised in Segal's Sunday column) but not both. He could also go for Door Boy at a big price.
There is also the chance of a public gamble on Fistral Beach with AP up--wh/ cd well be landed. I can see m/s overlaying Fistral and Bakbenscher and trying to balance up, looking for a result on an outsider. |
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I quite like Quinz and haven't been aware of attitude problems but would apreciate knowing when he's shown these before I have a bet.
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[i]IrisDeBalme Joined: 17 Jul 04
Replies: 309 24 Feb 11 21:38 hI Zilzal, 3 miles is perfect with this horse, when he ran in the King George last year, he was leading upto 3 miles and then got tired last two furlongs, so I think he struggles further than 3 miles... Surely he'd have won the race then? |
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Soft ground would put pay to Nac and Finbeach imo.
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Dutched Tatenen and Door Boy for an interest in case
Price wise tips one up and prices cave in. |
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I am also on Nacarat@7/1 and Razor@20/1.Razor could be pricewise.I hope Sam keeps Razor well to the fore,the rest could not get into the race from behind last year.
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Backbenscher - Dont really fancy this horse... King bigs up his horses in Handicaps and after 1 good run follows a bad one. Good example is Walkon... I think this horse needs a rest between races so not that confident with this selection, wont fall for Kings hype
Hmm, can't agree with this IrisDeBalme. BAKBENSHER ran really well in a hot handicap at Cheltenham 2 runs ago, came out 15 days later and scored with lots in hand at Exeter. His last 2 wins have come after breaks of 11 & 15 days, and he goes on any ground. Seems the step up to 3M last time suited him, and if he puts in a clean round of jumping here ( does have a tendency to shift out to the right so Kempton should suit ) I can see him taking this. I've had a big bet at 12's, and consider there's still plenty of value left in the 9's. No doubt Nacarat will run his race and rates probably the biggest danger, but Bakbensher is the one for me. |
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Bakbensher makes too many errors for me.
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