Figgis and other form gurus please .. the English Oaks 2011

Not one of the guru's on here lib,but one what might be worth a look at about 20s is the A O'Brien trained  Wonder Of Wonders.Her dam ran 2nd to Oujia Board in the Oaks,enough stamina in the family.
I am pretty certain she will stay the 12f,the one down side is she probably would not want it to quick(some more knowledgeable on here) may help on that score.

GL mate

One who will certainly stay and well bred is Kirinda (Tiger Hill - Kerania (Daylami) - John Oxx - Aga Khan.
Won a Dundalk AW Maiden comfortably only start, currently about 50/1.

Thanks but I'm certainly not the person to ask about pre-season ante post Oaks bets, as the last winner I backed pre-trials was Lady Carla back in '96! I'm no expert on pedigrees either. If I had to pick one I would unimaginitively side with White Moonstone.

Had a few sherberts however I'm blessed tonight to have had responses from the three most knowledgeable dudes on her so thank you. My heroes. Figgis you are a demon end eqimine if I had your knowledge or intelligence  I'd be dangerous. I like to have good each way bet this time of the year and that's what I'm going to do.

PS It's been a very long day.

Figgis 03 Feb 11 13:30   

...... the last winner I backed pre-trials was Lady Carla back in '96 ......


Word is Figgis that was also the last time you bought a round!

Hope all is well mate.

SOF .. I was on at fancy prices too. Didn't LC break the clock in a 7F race at somewhere like Leicester towards the back end of the season? Sir Henry is still the master you know.

you are spot on Lib,i liked to  'notebook' henry's runners in back end 2yo races at leicester,he seemd to like to run some decent sorts there

Not a terribly original pick, I'm afraid, but I fancy Havant for the Oaks.  She's unbeaten in two starts: a clear-cut debut win on soft ground at Newmarket (stayed on strongly, won easily in a very slow time) was followed by an impressive win in the Gr.3 Oh So Sharp Stakes on yielding ground (dwelt, travelled strongly, progress to lead over a furlong out, stayed on strongly).  Her pedigree (she’s by Halling out of a mare who was placed over 12f and has produced several 12-14f winners) strongly suggests that she will be well suited by middle distances.  The only slight concern is that she is yet to race on a fast surface (she showed a notable knee-action in the Rockfel), so it remains to be seen whether she will prove as effective on fast ground this year.  On the plus side, her sire Halling acted well on a fast surface and Havant is a half-sister to Leadership, who despite being by soft-ground influence Selkirk acted well on fast ground (he won a Group 1 in Italy on firm), and to Tuscan Gold, who won on good to firm.  Havant is a general 10/1 shot for the Oaks but is more likely (in my view) to stay the trip than White Moonstone, who is clear favourite in some books.

O’Briens Wonder of Wonders (Kingmambo – All Too Beautiful (Sadler’s Wells)) , second on sole two year old start, is virtually certain to stay and has a pedigree out of the very top drawer. Out of the 2004 Oaks second All Too Beatiful (Ouija Board’s Oaks win) and is by my reckoning a three parts sister to El Condor Pasa who won the Grand Prix Saint Cloud, Japan Cup (on firm ground) and was an Arc runner up. Of course from the family of the late legendary dam Urban Sea (Sea the Stars, Galileo etc.)

Wonder Of Wonders is undoubtedly very promising and should make considerable improvement from her debut second, but the form is nothing special (the third, beaten 1¼ lengths behind Wonder Of Wonders at Leopardstown, was beaten again next time and is officially rated 82) and there's simply no way of knowing whether she will prove up to Oaks class.  She'd be a sporting bet at around 40/1-50/1 (odds which of course would never be offered for a promising Ballydoyle inmate), but she certainly doesn't represent any sort of value at around half those odds.  But good luck to anyone who's backed her at fancy prices.

Fwiw Snow Fairy was an absolute chuck-out according to breeding

jamesp .. always enjoy reading what you say .. you are indeed a very wise man. I've hoovered up the fancy prices on Kirinda for an interest and am going to be all in Havant.

I hear its very nice there at this time of year

I'm on Havant at a nice price. 

soldieroffortune Joined: 14 Apr 07
Replies: 971 03 Feb 11 19:48   


Figgis 03 Feb 11 13:30   

...... the last winner I backed pre-trials was Lady Carla back in '96 ......


Word is Figgis that was also the last time you bought a round!

Hope all is well mate.

Yeah, hope you're well too SOF, I'm enjoying the break and looking forward to the new season. Could be a good 'un judging by the standard of some of last year's 2yos. I'm not too sure if your pal O'Brien has as much quality with the latest crop though?

Lady Carla would have been a big price then.

Figgis great to hear from you mate, I'm already looking forward to the season ahead.

Could well be a vintage year for Ballydoyle - Roderic and Zoffany have got every chance in the Guineas, Misty For Me in the 1000 but more so the Oaks, and Seville could develop into a fine 3YO. As a speed ratings guru Figgis you can't fail to have been impressed with Recital there in France the last day, and he might just turn out to be a dual Derby winner

All the best my friend, stay in touch.

I'm interested to hear that you fancy Misty For Me for the Oaks, SOF.  She was staying on well at the end of the Prix Marcel Boussac so looks sure to get further than a mile, but her dam is a Storm Cat half-sister to Fasliyev and winning sprinter Chinook (both by Nureyev) and full sister to 7f winner Kamarinskaya.  There's lots of speed in that pedigree and I wouldn't be too confident about her getting 12f in Group 1 company.

Excellent points you raise there as always james. Misty For Me has stayed on well in her races to date and the Galileo influence makes me think she'll do well over middle distances next season. She'll do extremely well to win over a mile in May - firstly because there's no doubt she'll come on for the run, but primarily because your French filly might just have too much speed for all of them.

Wonder of Wonders has attracted money in recent weeks and i wouldnt be worried about the form only being in the 80s were a once-raced O'Brien horse is concerned but i must say i didnt like her head carriage when watching the vid.....not the sort of thing that usually bothers me but it was very high, right back in the jockey's face....will be interesting to see if that was extreme greenness and if she knuckles down a bit more nxt time.

liberator of the oppressed, after spending some more time on the race I think a very promising outsider is Primevere, who runs in the Pretty Polly today. Bound to run abysmally now [;)]

Blue Bunting would seem to be a worthy favourite and unless the going comes up very soft should go very close

She's won with cut in the ground. She outstayed the runner-up today imo.

Agreed she might well be okay on really soft ground, but she seemed to love the quick going today.

The case for her having a very strong chance indeed at Epsom is the question of stamina. She is bred to be unsuited by a trip as short as a mile; being by Dynaformer out of Linamix mare is very stout breeding indeed. Its quite a  surprise that she is quick enough to wina  fast going 1000 Guineas and is almost certain to improve considerably for the step up to 12 furlongs.

No excuses there for Primevere, made no real improvement from her debut and no chance in an Oaks. I agree that Blue Bunting is a worthy fav, looks nailed on to get the trip. I doubt that it was fast ground today, even allowing for a headwind it couldn't have been any faster than good. I don't think it was particularly strong 1,000 Guineas form, in fact apart from Frankel the 3yo crop are looking a really sorry bunch at the moment, after what looked a decent bunch of 2yos last year. Maybe something will come along to better that form but if the middle distance 3yos are as bad as most of the 3yo milers Blue Bunting's form will be good enough.

I tell you something, there is no way the ground is genuine Good to firm.

Yesterday William Haggas ran a horse called Green Destiny that won the opening handicap. On his previous start that horse had won on Heavy, and before that he won on Good to Firm at Haydock, but he got jarred up badly and needed 100 days off to recover. Haggas was interview before the race by Nick Luck and when Haggas said the horse had previously been jarred up on GF, Nick Luck then asked him '' so how close are you to pulling the horse out''.


''I'm not'' said Haggas. ''I've spoken to Michael Prosser and he has assured me the ground will be fine''. Basically the Clerk heavily watered the track, and it was more like Good ground than genuine GF.

Figgis .. nice to see this dialogue continuing. I backed Kirinda (oops) and Primevere at 50/1 with Willies this morning (double oops). Wasn't particularly impressed with the 1000gns and don't like to see them strung out (backed that thing that got stuck in the stalls). So it's onwards and upwards. Tips and logic appreciated. Don't you just love betting. Oh and I'm on Frankel at 20/1 for the Derby (treble oops). That's down the pan as well. Trust you boys are all keeping very well too. Rather than my blanket approach I'm going to have a system but don't quite know what that is at the moment or whether I'll have time. Many years ago I used to follow the great Charlie Booth. What a man. Wish he was still around. Anybody know what happened to him. Put up a thread long time ago and somebody mentioned he was still working with horses in Ireland. The greatest. My hero.

What do you think about that one of Channon's that won the trial at Lingers? Time any good. Visibly looked impressive I thought.

FWIW I thought it looked like a terrific trial even if the time appeared to be nothing out of the ordinary.

My usual rule of thumb is what would the reaction have been if she was trained by Stoute/Cecil/O'Brien etc etc. You provide the answer [;)]

It was a good performance on the clock. I think she's still a bit over priced for the Oaks as a repeat of that would give her great place prospects. However, even though she's made rapid progress I think it's unlikely she will improve enough to beat the fav.

I backed Havant for the Oaks after she ran in the 1000 Guineas.

Out the back most of the way and switched very wide she stayed on steadily without ever being put in the race. I thought Ryan Moore gave her a fairly easy time of it and the run had all the hallmarks of a prep for the Oaks which, on breeding, was always more likely to suit. Ground expected to be riding better at Epsom as they do a good job of watering, she appears to be under the radar at the moment after that last run. Yes she has a bit to find with Blue Bunting who looks as though she will also benefit from the step up in trip but my gut feeling is that Havant will come on for the race and be far better prepared in 4 weeks time.

I'm on. Thank - you chaps.

I've backed Zain at 14s ew with WH. It has solid ew claims at least. It was a good trial and whilst I'm annoyed that I missed out on her pre trial, I think she'd be a lot shorter if trained by somebody else as Dark Destroyer said. Imagine what price she'd be after that if trained by Cecil!

She really has come out of nowhere and there is no way of knowing how much more there it come but she is certainly heading in the right direction.

im on the fav and guineas winners record in oaks is very strong,backed her after the 1000 at 7/2 can see her starting around 7/4 on the day/4

Actually, the more I look at the race the more I think the Channon filly can win. I took some 7/2 about Blue Bunting but my confidence in her is starting to diminish. I said at the time I didn't think it was a great Guineas and I think even then I over rated it by a few pounds. I know the general opinion is BB will improve for the Oaks distance, I agree that the trip will be no problem but I'm not entirely convinced she will improve. Havant needs to come on a bundle from her Guineas win, possible but can only be guessed at. I can't get a great handle on Wonder of Wonders, she won a slowly run trial and is of no interest to me at the price. I have Zain Al Boldan only 3lbs behing BB and at 10/1 I still rate her as value.

* from her Guineas run

i'll be amazed if blue bunting gets beat in the oaks. by dynaformer and wins the guineas? must be a shoe-in!