Ante post prices for cheltenham - the big races

It all depends how their competitors and the horse you have listed run between now and the festival. I wouldn't even touch those prices at NRNB apart from Big Bucks.

i think the trainers have said that masterminded and imp commander will go straight to chelters without another run

Yeah but their prices could still go up if/when other horses run good races. I really like Master minded for example. I wouldn't be quick to take 2/1 at this stage all the same.

mm- 5s
bb-4/9
menorah-10s
imp com-5s

I was under the impression that Masterminded was going to run at Ascot before Cheltenham?

is that what u think the prices will be flush?

i think bb will be 4/9 in march,4/7 after he wins on sat

Master Minded - 6/4
Big Bucks - 4/9
Menorah - 5/1
Imperial Commander - 11/2

looks likw wait till march apart from big bucks then

There is definitely no value in any of the - unless you take a view and back a horse before it puts up a good performance (for instance Zaidpour or Hurrican Fly before they ran at Fairyhouse on Wednesday) then you aren't going to get any value.

bb wont win on sat it is off

Master Minded 6/4f
Big Bicks 4/9f
Menorah 6/1
Imperial Commander 9/2

If mm goes straight to cheltenham he will be bigger than 2s, at least one of his market rivals will lay down a serious claim to the qm between now and march

if this tis weather keeps up they all wont getarunb4 chlters[:(]

On a related note, last year on Jan 7th I took a note of all the horses quoted at 10/1 or less for all Festival races:

In total 38 horses were quoted at 10s or shorter - including a few for multiple races eg Quel Esprit was 9s for the Neptune and 6s for the Bartlett.

Of those 38 horses 4 won:

Sizing Europe 7/1 won at 6/1
Binocular 8/1 won at 9/1
Quevega 6/4 won at 6/4
Big Zeb 10/1 won at 10/1.

Even allowing some margin of error for multiple entries it seems 10/1 or lower is a poor price to be taking at this time of year for Chelt races ante-post

Oops forgot Big Bucks, available at 4/6 ante post who won at 5/6

You do realise last seasons cheltenham was one if the worst for short priced horses. You can't do a decent analysis based on a sample of one festival.

So do you think there will be many of the 41 horses quoted right now at 10s or less for the festival who will a) run b) win and c) at shorter odds than right now?

Dont know the average price of festival winners over a period of years,but i would imagine its pretty big.
Backing shorties at the festival is not the way to make money imo.

I'd say,  supreme, Champion hurdle, champion chase, mares, world hurdle and gold cup will all be won this year by horses who are 10/1 for their races on new years day.

You know your analysis stat is incorrect as you should say how many races were won by horses who were 10/1 or less,

ie 5 won from from 12 races. As I'm sure there were 5 horses 10/1 or less in the champion hurdle alone and only one can win, so runs per horses is the incorrect stat. Wins per races is the correct one. You get what I mean?

Sorry masters degree in statistics, the misuse of stats gets me.

Or that  if you backed all 38 horses for say a tennereach at their odds in january you'd have made a loss if 68  from 380 staked.

Sorry loss of 58 from 380 staked. At Sp would have been 56 loss

Prices when popsted      current on betfair

Mastermined 2-1 QM    2-1 
Big bucks 4/5 WH      8/11
menorah 9/2 CH        11/2
Imo commander9/2 GK    9/2

not too much change BB has contracted and Menorah has drifted

AGREE WITH YOU THE ONLY ONE IMO  LIKLEY TO GET ANY SHORTER IS POSSIBY MASTER MND AS HE IS DUE TO RACE AGAIN SOON AND IF HE WINS  AND BIG ZEB FLOPS MAY GET SHORTER BUT NOT BY MUCH HOW MANY TIMES HAVE  SEEN SHORT PRICED ANTE POST FAVS DRIFT ON THE DAY ,THE OTHER 3 ARE NOT RACING TILL THE FESTIVAL SO NOT MUCH SCOPE TO SHORTEN MY ADVICE FWIW WAIT TILL N.R.N BET NEARER THE RACE AND GOOD LUCK

All the prices are tight now, you ideally needed to be on a couple of months ago.

At the end of the day it is a risk / reward trade-off. The earlier the bigger the price the bigger the risk of making it. The closer to the race the shorter the price the lesser the chance of getting value.

hurrican fly is prob the reason menorah has drifted

and now binocular

updated prices

Imp commander 7/2
Big Bucks 7/10
Master Minded 5/2
Menorah  5/1

imp commander has shotened

MM has drifted

update

Imp comm  9/2 now 7/2

big B     4/5 now evens

Master m  2/1 now 5/2

Menorah 9/2 now 5/1

onlt imp commander has contracted

Big Bucks now 2.1 on here[:x]

still think the first three will win

not much diifff mm biggest drifter now out to 11/4

so here are the final results

Master Minded was 2-2 now 10/3
Imp Comm      was 9/2 now 7/2
Menorah       was 9/2 now 4/1 (and thats without Binocular)
Bib Bucks     was 4/5 now 11/10

originoal prices were as at 13 december 2010.

Morale of the story is you are probably better backing the shorter priced horses on the day rather than at ante post

Good luck to all today

Be anice 4 timer if they all come in!!!