Horse Antepost
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It may be unoriginal, but I believe Little Josh is again a cracking bet now that Sam T-D has the ride and can claim a few precious pounds off him once more. The 13/2 last night was a lovely price and I am not surprised to see him now 6/1 tops. It is long odds on that the race will be run on no better than soft ground after the snow and expected thaw. Once thawed, the soft ground will be preserved under the frost covers and it is therefore imperative to look at horses that act well on ground with cut in it. Considering ground and other key form issues I hope to add weight to my belief that Little Josh can do the double.
Horses who love soft ground bring me straight to Little Josh. His form on soft and heavy ground reads: 1111111. His form on good to soft or better reads a much more modest 1242FF61. That is some record on ground with cut. He is no mudlark as he showed by winning the PP Gold Cup on good to soft ground, but his record on soft or worse shows he has more ability to act on such ground than most.
Dave's Dream was a very impressive winner over 2m the day before Little Josh's win. However, his record when his runs come within two months of one another is shocking, in comparison to the races he has competed in off more than a 2 month break. DD's record when running off a break of 2 months+ reads: 11111. On the other hand, his race record when racing within 2 months of his previous run reads: 0166340. With such question marks over his poor form when not fresh, 6/1 represents no value at all in my opinion.
Next in the market is Robinson Collonges, who is a novice with plenty of promise. The fact the Nicholls team have rushed 3 novice chase runs into him to qualify for a handicap mark shows they believe in this horse. However, this race is another level when it comes to competitiveness. This is no race to be entering a novice chaser in with only 3 runs under his belt. Granit Jack was an awful reminder of how big field, competitive handicaps are merciless affairs for novices stepping up in grade and although a promising prospect, I cannot see an inexperienced novice coming out on top with quality, experienced handicappers in the field. One for another day.
Great Endeavour is a horse that has bags of potential and the Pipe team think the world of him. I thought Timmy Murphy gave the horse a terrible ride in the PP Gold Cup. He raced him 4 or 5 horses wide for the duration of the race and then when it got to the business end of the race, the horse unsurprisingly ran out of steam having probably already travelled 2m6 by that stage. He is one to look at in-running as I pray the connections of GE ensure that GE is ridden handy and no more than 2 horses wide of the rail, as was done to such great effect in the Festival Plate.
Nicky Henderson's French Opera is an unlikely runner with the Tingle Creek now on the same card, but his Mad Max makes no appeal to me currently. He has travelled supremely to the top of the hill in all three of his races at Cheltenham and bottomed out at the business end of the race with form figures of 844 at Chelters. For such a big horse, he seems like he struggles to get the final undulating stage of Prestbury Park. Dancing Tornado is another who doesn't appeal. There must surely now be a worry he is over the top by now. He ran a very creditable race in the PP, but by the time he finishes this race he would have run 6 times since August 20th, a ratio of 1 x 3m race less than every three weeks. With fresher horses lining up I fear this may be one run too many for JP McManus' very likeable horse.
Sunnyhillboy is a frustrating horse. He is clearly talented, but is often beset by hitting a few fences and finding a flat spot at some stage as was seen in both the FP and the PP Gold Cup. He seems to overcome these and plug on at the end of his races, but at the top level he cannot win competitive races by doing this. I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar run to LTO and for me he is a horse crying out for 3m where his jumping errors and flat spots won't be so ruthlessly exposed.
Chapoturgeon and Noland have both been declared non-runners by Paul Nicholls, with a drop back to 2m and better ground on the agenda for Chapoturgeon and Noland heading for the King George. Breedsbreeze is being primed for the Peterborough and so it appears likely Nicholls will have Poquelin in alongside Robinson Collonges. If the ground is anything like expected, I can't be having Poquelin off top weight. He will no doubt have a very decent claimer on board, but with his preference for good ground and some nice unexposed types below him in the handicap, he may struggle to win this.
Of the Irish, Psycho looks the one to fear after beating Osana impressively over 2m3 recently and as his only entry, this appears Tony Martin's intended target for the horse. 10/1 would seem good e/w value as would the 20/1 on offer for Scotsirish. I thought his third behind Tranquil Sea recently was encouraging as Willie Mullins' string were under a cloud at the time and apart from a couple of jumping errors I thought he ran a fairly decent race in the Ryanair. Like Psycho, this is his only engagement and one to watch.
Therefore my selections are:
3pts Little Josh 6/1
1pt e/w Psycho 10/1
Horses who love soft ground bring me straight to Little Josh. His form on soft and heavy ground reads: 1111111. His form on good to soft or better reads a much more modest 1242FF61. That is some record on ground with cut. He is no mudlark as he showed by winning the PP Gold Cup on good to soft ground, but his record on soft or worse shows he has more ability to act on such ground than most.
Dave's Dream was a very impressive winner over 2m the day before Little Josh's win. However, his record when his runs come within two months of one another is shocking, in comparison to the races he has competed in off more than a 2 month break. DD's record when running off a break of 2 months+ reads: 11111. On the other hand, his race record when racing within 2 months of his previous run reads: 0166340. With such question marks over his poor form when not fresh, 6/1 represents no value at all in my opinion.
Next in the market is Robinson Collonges, who is a novice with plenty of promise. The fact the Nicholls team have rushed 3 novice chase runs into him to qualify for a handicap mark shows they believe in this horse. However, this race is another level when it comes to competitiveness. This is no race to be entering a novice chaser in with only 3 runs under his belt. Granit Jack was an awful reminder of how big field, competitive handicaps are merciless affairs for novices stepping up in grade and although a promising prospect, I cannot see an inexperienced novice coming out on top with quality, experienced handicappers in the field. One for another day.
Great Endeavour is a horse that has bags of potential and the Pipe team think the world of him. I thought Timmy Murphy gave the horse a terrible ride in the PP Gold Cup. He raced him 4 or 5 horses wide for the duration of the race and then when it got to the business end of the race, the horse unsurprisingly ran out of steam having probably already travelled 2m6 by that stage. He is one to look at in-running as I pray the connections of GE ensure that GE is ridden handy and no more than 2 horses wide of the rail, as was done to such great effect in the Festival Plate.
Nicky Henderson's French Opera is an unlikely runner with the Tingle Creek now on the same card, but his Mad Max makes no appeal to me currently. He has travelled supremely to the top of the hill in all three of his races at Cheltenham and bottomed out at the business end of the race with form figures of 844 at Chelters. For such a big horse, he seems like he struggles to get the final undulating stage of Prestbury Park. Dancing Tornado is another who doesn't appeal. There must surely now be a worry he is over the top by now. He ran a very creditable race in the PP, but by the time he finishes this race he would have run 6 times since August 20th, a ratio of 1 x 3m race less than every three weeks. With fresher horses lining up I fear this may be one run too many for JP McManus' very likeable horse.
Sunnyhillboy is a frustrating horse. He is clearly talented, but is often beset by hitting a few fences and finding a flat spot at some stage as was seen in both the FP and the PP Gold Cup. He seems to overcome these and plug on at the end of his races, but at the top level he cannot win competitive races by doing this. I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar run to LTO and for me he is a horse crying out for 3m where his jumping errors and flat spots won't be so ruthlessly exposed.
Chapoturgeon and Noland have both been declared non-runners by Paul Nicholls, with a drop back to 2m and better ground on the agenda for Chapoturgeon and Noland heading for the King George. Breedsbreeze is being primed for the Peterborough and so it appears likely Nicholls will have Poquelin in alongside Robinson Collonges. If the ground is anything like expected, I can't be having Poquelin off top weight. He will no doubt have a very decent claimer on board, but with his preference for good ground and some nice unexposed types below him in the handicap, he may struggle to win this.
Of the Irish, Psycho looks the one to fear after beating Osana impressively over 2m3 recently and as his only entry, this appears Tony Martin's intended target for the horse. 10/1 would seem good e/w value as would the 20/1 on offer for Scotsirish. I thought his third behind Tranquil Sea recently was encouraging as Willie Mullins' string were under a cloud at the time and apart from a couple of jumping errors I thought he ran a fairly decent race in the Ryanair. Like Psycho, this is his only engagement and one to watch.
Therefore my selections are:
3pts Little Josh 6/1
1pt e/w Psycho 10/1
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Replies: 20
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Nice write up Commander.
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great write up u seem as confused as i am about great endeavour
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Good write up-pity it will be abandoned!
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Great write up, ive come to exactly the same conclusion
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Personally I wouldn't rule out Robinson Collonges purely because of his inexperience - for every Granit Jack there's a Great Endeavour or Imperial Commander (won the Festival Plate & Paddy Power respectively on their 4th chase/first handicap starts) to show it's certainly not impossible for a novice to win such a race.
Trainer thinks he's badly handicapped and on bare form I'd agree, but he's looked to me like a horse who will be a serious competitor in the big novice chases at the festivals, so I wouldnt say 148 represents an insurmountable mark - I'd expect him to be rated higher by the end of the season (actually I'd hope by the end of this race - as I've backed him...) At bigger odds I'd also throw a mention for Matuhi, who isn't proven in this class but has looked a much improved animal since going to Pipe and ran into a very well handicapped animal last time. No idea if he goes for this or easier targets, but I was surprised he was as big as 20s. |
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I was wlways in the Little Josh camp but starting to fancy Great Endeavour whose Paddy Power run was too bad to be true.
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So was Sunnyhillboys!!
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GE & Sunnyhillboy's form does look vert strongly tied together on both the Pp and Festival Plate runs, makes both very hard to judge imo, did both run identically poor runs in the pp?
Given jonjo's record of horses second time out, I take Sunnyhill over GE in this race, but not that keen on either tbh. Mad Max looks like the one for me, has a big swing in the weights with Little Josh, has PC back up, would surely have placed in the Arkle bar clouting the 2nd or 3rd last. Although I think he's not 100% suited by Cheltenham, he clearly does handle it, so almost by default MM is my selection @ 10/1. |
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Festival Plate was a gash race imo. Be surprising if GE or SHB are really good enough to win this.
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Agree Down Mad Max is reasonable value at 10s,Daves Dream never won over distance poor Fav imo.
Think maybe Barry may have made wrong choice,find out Sat good luck mate. |
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Sunnyhill for me if AP picks him.
Needed the PP think will come on a ton. Kinda plugs nicely with SPOTY just around the corner. Think some big bets may be landed. !!! |
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TONY McCOY looks set to ride Finger Onthe Pulse in Saturday's Vote AP Gold Cup at Cheltenham after Dancing Tornado was not declared for the race.
A total of 16 have been left in the 2m5f race, 14 of which have been jocked up. The only two yet to have riders next to their name are the Tony Martin-trained Psycho and Finger Onthe Pulse, a general 20-1 chance, who is trained by Tom Taaffe for owner JP McManus. Richie McLernon has been booked to ride the other McManus-owned runner in the race, Sunnyhillboy. As well as Dancing Tornado, Pickamus was also taken out at the final declaration stage. |
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Think I'm gonna give GE another chance in the hope that the ground is a bit better. Was well fancied last time and this is not as strong a race imo.
Not convinced by Dave's Dream at the price Little Josh up massively in the weights Cannot have Robinson given his experience I don't think Mad Max handles the track Psycho is better with Ruby on board Sunnyhill held by GE |
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Noel Fehily didnt pass the doctor, won't be riding this weekend.
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Wonder why AP not gone for the ride on Sunnyhill surely he had the choice.
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Who will ride pigeon island? and does anyone give him a shout? havent really studied the race yet
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O, 10-2 is the reason.
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little josh up 9lbs and this ground wont be in his favour (more testing today)
dont rate his chances very highly. mad max is badly handicapped on the balance of his form. psycho doesnt do alot which doesnt bode well in tough race like this. sunnyhill boy is a solid horse but jumping in this ground is a worry. no comment worthwhile from me on daves d and robinson but i wouldnt back them. leaves great endeavor, who stays pretty well, and can easily defy a mark of 142, jumps and runs and this dead ground will take the speed off the others like little josh and mad max etc. deserves to be favourite but last run gives us a great price, ta very much. |
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I'm going to give Sunhilly Boy another go, although hoping to get bigger than 10/1 before I bet.
It's interesting to note, that on each of the last two seasons, he has ran an average race on his seasonal debut, and then he has come out and won next time. Which leads me to think he always needs his first run. I'm probably clutching at straws here, but I don't really fancy anything else, although Matuhi is interesting. Nice write up btw TC. |
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i've backed him for the same reason Gi Mac, and the fact his form figures on officially Good ground are 1112. We'll have to see how the ground is later though it might not be that quick.
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