The 11/8 Kauto Star ante-post does look good value at this stage, and the 11/10 NRNB possibly even better value if factoring in the chances of the horse having a setback in the lead up to the race.
I would be surprised if he is much higher than 4/5 on the day, and 8/11 perhaps more likely.
Imperial Commander was handling the course quite well in the 2008 renewal, I thought. He was going very well, in fact, until he suddenly petered out. Reportedly, he wasn't right physically on the day, which would be consistent with the way he quickly went out as they started to race for home.
It may be that Kempton isn't the right track for him, but I'd be interested to have another look at how he handles the course when fit and well. On paper, this is the best opponent Kauto Star will have faced in the King George, and arguably the only staying chaser around today who conceivably has the speed to match the four times winner of the race.
Kauto Star has just been going too fast for the other horses as they turn in over the last four renewals of the race. Those who were able to keep tabs on him for a while down the home straight, couldn't sustain their run at the pace they needed to go to have a chance of being alongside him with a decent lung full of air going to the last fence. The horses close behind are utterly breathless and clambering over the last fences, while he is still sauntering along, seemingly, and flying the final two fences in the most recent renewals.
If he is at the top of his game, Imperial Commander might just be clear winded and speedy enough to live with the strong pace of the race and be alongside Kauto with enough left in the tank down the finishing straight to make some kind of a race of it. And if you can put Kauto under any sort of pressure at that stage, it evens up the odds a bit.
Good horses like Our Vic and Exotic Dancer couldn't live with Kauto Star's pace in the KG; on that basis, I wouldn't give much for the chances of those in the likely field this time with ratings lower than Imperial Commander. Barring blunders, I would have it between KS and IC, with the current prices of both still offering a certain amount of value (though with the caveat that IC is still barely off the injury list).
The 11/8 Kauto Star ante-post does look good value at this stage, and the 11/10 NRNB possibly even better value if factoring in the chances of the horse having a setback in the lead up to the race. I would be surprised if he is much higher than 4/5 o