Horse Antepost
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I just had a look at the Hennessy and came yp with the following:
Denman ran very well in what was a brutal renewal of the race.
The winner was only just outside the course record, and that on dead ground,and some very solid yard sticks ran well up their best form giving the race an appearance of great solidity.
I am not sure I agree with two of the correspondents in today's Racing Post, who see the Hennessy as a sign that the old timers like Denman are going to have to give way to the new kids on the block this year.
in the Hennessy The Tother One, Carruthers and Nich Market all ran very well, and I make Carruthers running just below his best, with Nich Market, and The Tother One running pretty much top their best..
Daimond Harry won with his best ever rating of 167, and although Burton Port ran a pound below this, a mistake and a pound overweight makes him more than Diamond Harry the more likely Gold Cup contender.
However Denman is very likely indeed to reverse this form of level weights and makes much appeal for the Gold Cup.
Last 2 years have seen Denman not ridden to best advantage at Cheltenham imo, he needs to be allowed to set the crippling mid range fractions as the year he won it. If he does there is little sign he is or has deteriorated on ounce. Its his next race by the looks of it and he will be hard to stop.
Ratings for Hennessy (without looking atRacinbg post or any other site for clues)
Diamond Harry 167
Burton Port 166+
Denman 182
The Tother One 156
Niche Market 148
Carruthers 146
Ratings do not allow for the 5lbs claimed by riders of 4th and 5th.
Essentially this means that Burton Port will need to run well over a stone better than this Hennessy effort to get to Denman at Cheltenham and although he could well improves, its a lot to ask imo.
Diamond Harry has the look of a horse, (as indicated by his trainer)who likes flat tracks, and may be more interesting at Liverpool rather than Cheltenham this year.
Denman ran very well in what was a brutal renewal of the race.
The winner was only just outside the course record, and that on dead ground,and some very solid yard sticks ran well up their best form giving the race an appearance of great solidity.
I am not sure I agree with two of the correspondents in today's Racing Post, who see the Hennessy as a sign that the old timers like Denman are going to have to give way to the new kids on the block this year.
in the Hennessy The Tother One, Carruthers and Nich Market all ran very well, and I make Carruthers running just below his best, with Nich Market, and The Tother One running pretty much top their best..
Daimond Harry won with his best ever rating of 167, and although Burton Port ran a pound below this, a mistake and a pound overweight makes him more than Diamond Harry the more likely Gold Cup contender.
However Denman is very likely indeed to reverse this form of level weights and makes much appeal for the Gold Cup.
Last 2 years have seen Denman not ridden to best advantage at Cheltenham imo, he needs to be allowed to set the crippling mid range fractions as the year he won it. If he does there is little sign he is or has deteriorated on ounce. Its his next race by the looks of it and he will be hard to stop.
Ratings for Hennessy (without looking atRacinbg post or any other site for clues)
Diamond Harry 167
Burton Port 166+
Denman 182
The Tother One 156
Niche Market 148
Carruthers 146
Ratings do not allow for the 5lbs claimed by riders of 4th and 5th.
Essentially this means that Burton Port will need to run well over a stone better than this Hennessy effort to get to Denman at Cheltenham and although he could well improves, its a lot to ask imo.
Diamond Harry has the look of a horse, (as indicated by his trainer)who likes flat tracks, and may be more interesting at Liverpool rather than Cheltenham this year.
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Its not really a lot to ask that a 2nd season chaser improves by a stone that season after his first run.
What I would say is that Burton Port will need to improve his jumping if he is going to win a gold cup. Also Diamond Harry seemed to run about a bit the final 2f and may well have had a lot more left in the tank. |
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Excellent post
On my calculations i make this the fastest Denman has ever run a Hennessey.His first win was on soft but the 2009 was 13 secs slower that Diamond Harry's time yesterday and i make the ground very close to last years.I've not worked out excat fraction but i'd say at nearly 16 lenghts Denman was about 7-9 secs slower than DH making it his fastest ever Hennessey. I expected a v game run(which we got) but much as my "sensible head" is telling me sureley Denman is in some small decline i cannot for the life of me see this from yesterdays race. This was in effect a Grade 1 with Denman up against high class animals conceding a collosul weight. I wouldn't have him as a fav for the GC but he could just turn out to be one of the bets of the decade at his current prices for Chelters.Providing he's fit and well and gets his ground i rate him as a very live chance,hopefully with Sam T up top as well. I'd love to see DH run a GC as i believe he's good enough but at level weights with the likes of KS/IP/Den he could be found wanting on this track. |
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**IC
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If Denman did really run 182 yesterday, and it really does look like he did, the chances of Diamond Harry or Burton Port being that good are not great I don't think. Very few chasers since Arkle can match that sort of figure and the chances of two more turning up on the same day just seem too long.
At the start of the season I was fairly sure Denman was on the decline too. I am not so sure now, as he just ran right up to his best form. Going into the Gold Cup there are but two serious opponents yet - last year's winner and Kauto Star. it remains to be seen whether either of them turn up, and with Denman now going straight for the race, nece and fresh and ready for action, there is a bit less to go wrong for him. diamond Harry was going very easily yesteday but it was hard not to be impressed with the second who I prefer for Cheltenham. The mistake at the 4th last would have put many horses right out of it, and he was carrying 1 lb more than Harry (the weight equivalent to the distance he was beaten). He also seems more of a Cheltenham horse than Harry too - as I say the trainer of Harry thinks he may well be better ona flat track and there is some evidence for this too. |
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Just cannot see beyond Denman,Kauto and IC for the GC.Only one that could upset that i think is Weapons amnesty,but will he be there??
I do like Cooldine and think he could prove a challenger,but nothing else. On that basis i am happy with my 14 on Denman,and kept fresh now for the race can only help.IC is the likeliest winner i would think,but, having said that, with Sam Thomas back on board and a fresh horse on the day,i think we may see a similar ride to the one when he won,taking it up on the 2nd circuit.IC will have a different race on his hands if that is the case. |