Welsh National - Fabalu

any news on a prep run?

Nothing recently Teddy, stable tour intimated he might have run in the Becher, but nowt apart from that.

i like him but would like a run first

I know what you mean, just to see if he's come back into training OK. But I did come across this quote from the trainer which convinced me to bet him.

17.11.10

McCain has Fabalu Aintree options
Donald McCain has engaged an interesting duo in both the £100,000 Listed totesport.com Becher Chase (1.45pm) and the £60,000 totesuper7 Grand Sefton Handicap Chase at Aintree

McCain is looking at both options for last season’s progressive novice Fabalu, as well as Mill Side, who joined his string from Sue Smith during the summer, and the Cheshire trainer, unsurprisingly, has the John Smith’s Grand National in the back of his mind.

McCain revealed today: “Fabalu and Mill Side have both been given an entry in the totesport.com Becher Chase and the totesuper7 Grand Sefton but at the moment I’m undecided about which race they’ll run in.

“Both of them are doing grand and are ready to go. Fabalu is a grand horse and I’ve always liked him. Mill Side is lightly raced and I haven’t had him very long, so I’m not sure whether he would be one for Aintree next spring but we’re looking to go that way with Fabalu.”

Signed in..

my fancies are any currency and imoncloudnine

Dance Island for me. I think he's rated 137 but ran Burton Port close with Nicholls' horse who ran second to Massini's Maguire at Ascot in third at Aintree and won easily at Warwick in very soft ground. Also beat Dream Alliance over hurdles at Chepstow (getting loads of weight admittedly) and had a pipe opener over hurdles before running a good second at Haydock to King Fontaine last Saturday. Trainer's comments in the Post that morning suggested he'd still need the run and I think the race has been his target for a while.

Yeah, I can see where your coming from with Dance Island. Some decent form as a novice. Question I think, is how much he has in hand. Fair price I'd say.

Any currency was well mentioned throughout last season after winning two races, but did nothing afterwards. I think his rating is as good as he is, not a great price.

I think his runs at Warwick and Aintree would both suggest he should be mid 140s and he's only run 4 times over fences so should be capable of better.

GI, it's asking a lot to win the Welsh National on your seasonal debut.

The one that interests me most is Bluesea Cracker. She travelled and jumped like a dream at Cheltenham up to the 2nd last when she clearly blew up.

I'm sure she will strip fitter at Chepstow and a rating of 141 should ensure she gets a decent weight

why wouldnt they run fab in a hcap hurdle as a prep. he's only 124 so pop around somewhere in a 0-130 would be ideal.  like it team

Dance Island's Aintree form now franked. 33-1 a great price.

Took 33's Fabalu, hoping for a good run!

Galant Nuit been aimed at this since the summer. Stays, jumps and goes well on soft ground. Should get in off about 10st 6lb

javedu - sshhhh!

Weights published. Burton Port set to concede 26lb to Dance Island for a shade over 3 lengths in the grade 2 novice at Aintree (spotted early by booster). Will be surprised if the former is exposed to such a slog and I'm sure his jumping is not suited by a big field. Before each fence Barry gives it the one, two, three, jump routine.

Red and white, have a look at the ratings of the 3 horses who finished behind Dance Island at Aintree and tell me how well weighted you think he is then.

I quite like Fabalu's unexposed stablemate, very eyecatching run last time over hurdles imo.

Not sure whether this race is a target but interesting nonetheless

I think the other one to be interested in is Venetia williams' Summery Justice whose Bangor victory from Buffalo Bob was franked at Newbury and should love the extra 5 furlongs on soft ground. Well weighted off 135 I think.

booster i dont know what happened to the welsh national price wise post on the main forum does antone have a link to view the weights , 9 times out of 10 they go up 6 or 7 before the race.

Bigmart, I'm no good with computers but if you click on the Post website, go to cards, big race cards, and Welsh National, it will show there. My 2 fancies are 135 and 137 so should get reasonable racing weights.

You sure Blue Sea Cracker blew up lto ? Im  not tbh she was there to win imo because Andrew McNamara was aboard he has ridden her to victy twice before. She also had a recent outing over hurdles before Cheltenhams. Will like conditions of the National,though.

Dance Island tipped by Pricewise. Thanks for the tip booster. Judging by his profile he's been laid out for the race and the track/distance will suit better than Aintree. He'll have a nice racing weight too as they're sure to go up and bring him in to the handicap proper.

I can understand him tipping up Synchronised as he did dance away with a Chepstow Nov Chase before winning the Midlands National (though quite what he beat is open to conjecture) and a mark of 150 will not make it a walk in the park but to go for Dance Island whos best from is arguably on better ground in the hope that they get unseasonally good ground at Chepstow in the middle of winter is a bit strange. Its obviously based on Burton Ports form but if you watch the race they were in a heap behind, the time was rubbish, no horse has won from it and my view is the Burton Port that won that day was not the one who ran in the RSA chase a few weeks earlier or who indeed ran so well last week in the Hennessey. In other words he won in spite of being nowhere near his best. Also Maktus form with King Fontaine gives him a far better chance than Dance Island. Gallant Nuit is the obvious fly in the ointment and was entered up all over this weekend but wont be going anywhere soon (bar Redcar beach, which worked okay for Kalahari King I suppose). I just wonder if he will be tempted to go for a very valuable 3m chase at the December meeting if the ground is suitable.

Fabalu taken out of the market? That aint a good sign 

Was any reason given for missing the Becher? He seemed very keen to run him. Hope you havent lost too much

Opened VC account just to take 33's. Thankfully they would only let me have £30 on, was going to bet more. I think GI had lot more than that on by the sound of things, hope I'm wrong though.

It's easy to say now, but I was kind of curious as to why he missed The Becher, didn't seem to be any explanation. Fingers crossed it's just a niggle, and nothing more ominous.

Betilyerded, I'd have to say that Dance Island's Aintree form is a stone at least better than the very poor race for last year's Midlands National and, when you look at the 3 horses who finished directly behind him, Take The Breeze was 2nd behind Massini's Maguire at Ascot, Lenabane was rated 144 and Knockara Beau has reasonable form with all last year's staying novices and is rated 149. Rated 137, it's undisputable that he's well handicapped. Throw in his defeat of Dream Alliance over 3 miles on soft ground at Chepstow over hurdles and a chase debut victory over one of the most demanding jumping courses at Warwick over 3 miles 2 furlongs and you can see that Dance Island at 33-1 was massively overpriced.

In a race full of exposed horses I'd be happy to be on each way at 33-1 with a saver on Summery Justice at 25-1.

I never set too much store by Aintree form anyway but Dance Island's run behind Burton Port hints strongly at ability. Reading his article I thought Tom Segal was more taken by his thrashing of follow up Welsh National winner Dream Alliance at Chepstow on soft(don't know why you think he needs 'unseasonal' ground betilyered, Turtle Island horses love the soft).
Warwick is a track that needs jumping and for a horse to go there and win on its first ever chase over 3m2f says a lot about his jumping and staying ability. I don't take the form behind Burton Port literally and neither did the handicapper obviously (I mentioned the weight differential earlier as a reason for Burton Port's connections ducking what I think would be a slog for him). Nor do I think the handicapper has Dance Island's measure over fences.

As regards Dance Island's defeat of Dream Alliance over hurdles, its needs to be remembered that it was Dream Alliance's first run for 19 months and that he blew up badly down the straight. The 10 length margin probably looks better on paper.  I have never seem DA so tired after a race (apart from Aintree, but it turned out he had a virus then).

I think that Dance Island's current mark is about right, but he is one I would keep an eye on as he certainly has the potential to improve and should be on anyone's short list for the Welsh National.

FCH, does that mean that the horses who finished beind him at Aintree are all badly handicapped? Can't see how Take The Breeze is as he ran second at Ascot behind Massini's Maguire. I can buy the argument that he has to prove he stays on heavy ground but not that he's handicapped about right.

tried a few quid on Giles Cross the other day 40/1.

Agreed I am on Giles Cross at 40's

Does anyone have a copy of the Post from the day of the Welsh National Pricewise? I'm interested in Venetia's comments (if any) regarding the chances of Summery Justice.

No I dont. But she is likely to run Mobaasher aswell .. I backed him in the foxhunters where he was going well until he got badly hamepred at the 11th fence, then plugged on for 5th. If he is on a going day, he could be a danger

I have the RP from Thurs but no comments from Venetia. Not studied the race as much as some of you guys but Becauseicouldnotsee is interesting based on his Festival run with three shoes and Chicago Grey is an intriguing entry also.

Sint, I do believe Bluesea blew up last time. Trainers comments in the Racing Post on Thursday tend to back up that theory.
Jockey was very easy on her from two out.
Trainer had been training her for the Hennessy but ditched that idea when Denman was confirmed as a runner which would have had her running too far out of the handicap. So maybe her last race came a couple of weeks too soon based on original plan.
Was disturbed to see that trainer wasn't committing to Welsh National.

Rease, agree with you about Becauseicouldnotsee. Big player but is also one of the favourites for the PP Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas, so I am reluctant to back until nearer the day.

Beryl, Bluesea is not in the P.P. @ Leopardstown. Whilst the trainer did not totally commit to the Welsh Nat.,it is the only race Bluesea is in over the Christmas period.

Hi James,

I was referring to Becauseicouldnotsee.

I've already backed Bluesea at 14s for the WN. I'm worried now I won't get a run for my money after reading the trainers comments. Hopefully the warmer weather promised for the end of this week will hang around for a couple of weeks and convince him to run her.
I think she has an outstanding chance - An Irish National winner running off 140 with conditions very likely to suit.
I would fear Becauseicouldnotsee if he turned up as he to is well treated and improving.

Booster. I think youre getting a little carried away with Dance Islands form. His defeat of Dream Alliance over hurdles -he was getting best part of 2 stone after a long lay off. (The 3rd that day hasnt won since). He won a tinpot 4 runner novice chase beating a 10 yo who hadnt won a race for 3 years and a Nicholls horse beaten out of sight in the Badger Ales. Dance Island was stuffed next time by Blazing bailey who in turn got humped next time. I ask you to watch again the Aintree race and the heap that they jumped the last in. The race was slow by 30 seconds on GOOD ground which to my mind suggests it is very suspicious form and I stand by my comments regarding Burton Port that I made earlier. I agree that the Midlands National form as such isnt up to much but the horse showed lots of guts to win which you obviously need to win at Chepstow. I was taken by the way he bombed clear in a novice chase at Chepstow despite being hampered twice on the run in. It reminded me so much of when Mini Sensation won the Welsh National - the difference being in the region of 25lb!
Red and White - I was referring to Tom Segals comments regarding Dance Island needing better ground and then tipping him for a race that is usually run on bad ground. He does suggest that its factored in the price which is fair but the chances of "better" ground in late December seem a touch remote to me.

Betilyerded. point taken about the Aintree race but it's a fact that he's rated at least 7lbs lower than any of the other horses in the top 5 and all he did was stay on up the straight looking like he needed further. The horses he beat easily on debut at Warwick were no slower than L'Aventure, a close up second of only 3 finishers over 4 miles at Uttoxeter.

At Chepstow, Dream Alliance won the Welsh National next time so I'm not certain he was that unfit. I backed him in the hurdle race as a good judge I know reckoned he was thrown in at the weights on chase form. The Real Deal was also pretty decent at the time but has admittedly gone nowhere since.

On balance, I'd say 33-1 more attractive than 12-1 the 150 rated Synchronised.

Was puzzled by Dance Island's omission from the antepost betting list in yesterday's post. Doesn't seem to be a problem. I'm not a fan of the paper - bring back the Life!

Fair enough booster. We'll agree to disagree as they say, racings all about opinions after all. Good luck with your bet anyway - lets hope the race is actually on after all this horrible weather. I havent gone in on Synchronised as I missed the price and i am worried about his rating though he is on an upward curve. Ive had a bit e/w on Maktu at 25's as I recall Pat Murphy stating last season that this would be its target and he did win it with Supreme Glory. There was plenty to like about his reappearance and hope theres more to come - just not sure he has the class to win. Like bigbucksanders I am warming to the chance of Notre Pere who has definitely been given a chance the t'handicapper and put in a very promising run last time. If memory serves he absolutely hosed up a couple of  years back so 16's isnt a bad price. I was also looking at Officier De Reserve who ran well in the same renewal and hinted at ability with V Williams last season. However he ran abysmally last time out and cant be backed on the back of that performance.

Funny you should mention Maktu as I liked his first run and had a look at the form when the weights came out and thought he'd have a chance but price has shortened a bit now. He must go well anyway. The one of Venetia's I like is Summery Justice as I was very impressed at Bangor when he beat Buffalo Bob. Looked like he'd love a step up in trip. Notre Pere did look like he was running well when hampered at Aintree but hadn't shown much for a while.

I'm like you, can't wait for racing to start, looks like Cheltenham this weekend will be a great card, then we need Kempton and Chepstow to be on for a Merry Christmas. Oh and Ascot for the Ladbroke.

Maktu should have good racing weight,as weights will rise, loves soft and Chepstow.
As poster above stated not sure if classy enough, but may not have to be in what could be sub-standard renewal?

Plenty of Maktu fans on here.  I got what I could at 25's with Billys and took some more 20's.  The positives for this horse are unbelievebale and the one thing nobody has mentioned is his sire is the same as Dream Alliance, another postive.  Here's todays update and all is going well so far.  14's is still a very good price.

Pat Murphy's two-year plan will finally be acted out later this month when Maktu challenges for a slice of glory in the Coral Welsh National.

Murphy, whose greatest success as a trainer was in the demanding Chepstow handicap with Supreme Glory back in 2001, has been convinced Maktu has the right attributes since his hurdling days and bookmakers seem to agree - the chestnut is no bigger than 14-1 in the ante-post market.

Maktu has won at the course twice already and acquitted himself well in a busy but fairly low-key first season over fences before finishing a close second to King Fontaine in a handicap at Haydock.

The cold spell scuppered another possible outing, but Murphy, based in East Garston near Hungerford, is undeterred.

He said: "We haven't been badly hit by the weather and it would have been nice to have given him another run at Chepstow last Saturday but he's a really clean-winded horse and he'll have no problems with fitness."

Murphy's forward-planning comes from his early inspirations.

He continued: "Two years ago he ran in a three-mile handicap hurdle on Welsh National day and I said to the owners that we'd be back for the National itself two years later.

"So basically his career has been counting back from December 27, 2010.

"From my time with Pat Taaffe and Dermot Weld, I learned that you have to plan ahead.

"Dermot is particularly good at earmarking targets a long way ahead - he didn't go and win the Belmont Stakes on a whim, it was a year in the planning."

Comparing Maktu with Supreme Glory, Murphy assessed: "They are both good stayers who jump well, so you would say there are similarities, although this one would be a bit speedier.

"Mind you, Supreme Glory would find another 10 miles an hour whenever you put a row of fences in front of him!"

Lucinda Russell reports Silver By Nature to be on course for another crack at the race having been beaten just three-quarters of a length into second by Dream Alliance last December.

The grey was well beaten in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury last month for Russell expects him to improve for that first run of the campaign.

"He was quite tired after Newbury. It took quite a bit out of him and it was probably the travelling as well," said the Kinross trainer.

"We felt he might need his first race and it certainly was the case.

"He's come out of it fine. We've given him an easy week and he's now back in full training again."

Silver By Nature is a 12-1 shot with the sponsors for the Welsh National over a stamina-sapping

I think Synchronised is a shocking price currently tbh. He is lightly raced and will like conditions, but when he won the Uttoxeter National ApMcCoy had to get off afterwards as the horse half-collapsed and was all out shattered. Something you might expect given the test of the race, but he is 7lb higher here and we've only seen him once since when he was beat 36 lengths last time over hurdles. That race was obviously a prep, but it's not certain that the Uttoxeter has not left it's mark imo.

What were the reasons PW put up for backing ?

synchronised makes far too many mystakes not for me !

any currency for me, will plod plod plod when most have cried enough, can see him in the frame

Sintonian - you can hear TS reasons for putting up Synchronised for the race on RPTV but basically he won nicely at the course last season and he stayed and stayed when he won the Midlands national. Thinks hes the right type.
TINnotaTON - Im begining to think Any Currency is tripless. You would think a staying on 3rd over 3miles at Chelters in Dec behind the likes of The Package and The Totherone would set him up for the 4 miler at the festival but even with the extra mile and an arguably easier race he still gave an identical effort and stayed on too late. His target was the staying handicap at the called off Sandown meeting last week so they obviously feel he needs a vertical finish to have a chance. He will pop up one day but where?

your probably right mate, would just back him for the reason i gave above.

Would be sceptical about the Midlands National form - only three finished and it was run in a swimming pool. Giles Cross pulled up when he reappeared and L'Aventure not sighted since. Type of race to bottom a horse.

Sorry, L'Aventure retired but you get the point.

i like the look of maktu but one i fancy at a massive price is flight commander,he was a top notch hurdler rated 154,he will run off a mark of 130 if he takes part,his novice campaign has been slow but he could have been layed out for a race like this,i notice he is entered for a hot novice race at cheltenham saturday,maybe it is his prep,also he won in the sludge at chepstow as a novice hurdler

I take it you mean Flight Leader. I agree he does have decent hurdle form but has yet to show a glimmer of that over fences, beaten a country mile behind Synchronised and Maktu last season. Cant see it myself unless it hoses up at the weekend. Oh and the last 10 yo to win this was Riverside Boy (having been 2nd the previous season).
TINaTON - see your horse is running tomorrow. E/W steal??!!

he's tripless BET, 5 mile 1 1/2 furlongs yes, tomorrows trip no,
seriously may have a place wager but he's 6lb higher tomorrow due to being out the handicap

Fabalu not running?

Sadly no 

He was taken out of the betting before the last declaration stage. Not actually heard what the reason was.

He was pulled out of the Becher too, something cant be right :(

I've not been able to find out what's up with him, a bit worrying, he's surely close to a return to action if he's getting these entries!

From www.DavidParryracing.com;
"Having pulled up sharply at Cheltenham on saturday, Galant Nuit has been checked over by our vets. Whilst nothing serious, he does have soreness in a heel & as that means missing a few weeks work, he is out of the Welsh National. We will see what happens but most likely scenario is that he heads to Newcastle for the Eider chase, to Cheltenham for the Kim Muir (3rd last year) or to Uttoxeter for the Midlands National."

What actual weight will the top weight carry (is it 12-0?) and what horse is this likely to be?

thx in advance...

silver birch 11-12

I think he means Silver By Nature. Weights due to go up by 10lbs.

Any Currency taken out today according to trainer's website

This race is becoming a right pain in the arse.

Backed 4 on Thursday - Galant Nuit, Any Currency, Maktu and Dance Island and now down to 2

Bluesea Cracker was running a nice race at CHelt before getting outpaced, trainer seems committed to coming over now and should have a nice weight...