Horse Antepost
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23 Nov 10
16:28
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Date Joined:
09 Mar 04
20/1?
someone's having a laugh.
win or lose 20/1 is a bet. Canadian International winner and still very lightly raced....only his 4th start of a delayed campaign. These far east horses look well exposed to me...Buena Vista on the comeback, Oken Bruce Lee only 1 run since last year's 2nd and has had an injury, no telling how much the Arc took out of Nakayama Festa, 3yr olds look mediocre.
St. Leger form looks rock solid Far East wise with Snow Fairy absolutely destorying them out in Kyoto on her next start. Surely a bit risky to overlook our runners over there after that demolition job over a high class field.
someone's having a laugh.
win or lose 20/1 is a bet. Canadian International winner and still very lightly raced....only his 4th start of a delayed campaign. These far east horses look well exposed to me...Buena Vista on the comeback, Oken Bruce Lee only 1 run since last year's 2nd and has had an injury, no telling how much the Arc took out of Nakayama Festa, 3yr olds look mediocre.
St. Leger form looks rock solid Far East wise with Snow Fairy absolutely destorying them out in Kyoto on her next start. Surely a bit risky to overlook our runners over there after that demolition job over a high class field.
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Replies: 18
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Couldn't agree more ELG, there's a Japan Cup thread somewhere and a few dismiss him out of hand but I think he's got a big chance. Coming into the race nicely fresh and I believe his run style will be suited to this race. Had a small play at 20s but wanted to wait for the draw before committing fully.
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Who has betting on this lads?
Ta. |
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c orals
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Joshua Tree was arguably lucky to win a very average Canadian International and will ( along with the other foreign invaders ) very likely be outclassed by a very strong local contingent. In his favour is the fact that he is fresh ,obviously travels well , was in receipt of a miserable wfa allowance in Toronto and still won and his last race was his best race ever and he is clearly improving.
ELG - Buena Vista has come back recently in spectacular fashion and ran to a career high 121 ( the same mark as Midday and Sarafina according to the latest edition of the World Thoroughbred Rankings - www.ifhaonline.org) which makes her a better filly than Vodka who won this last year . Nakayama Festa is on the same rating as the legendary Deep Impact and there are three local three year olds who are rated higher at the mo than Joshua Tree ( check out the Japan Racing website- japanracing.jp for the local ratings ) In short , JT is not massively overpriced at 20 to 1 imo |
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Ask the Japanese who was better Vodka or Buena Vista and they won't quote ratings relative to a bunch of European fillies, quite sure Vodka was the better filly on her day. Nakayama Festa is reported to not have been himself at home since the Arc and the Arc is almost certain to have taken plenty out of him imv.
In Canada I felt Joshua Tree looked like he had the race won from about a furlong out and then the others fought back at him as he hit the front. Being a Montjeu he perhaps has a few quirks, but he does have tactical speed (essential in a big field), a good turn of foot and travels well. He's better than his bare rating suggests and as ELG says 20/1 is too big for one coming into the race at the top of his game and clearly well on the upgrade; worth noting that his dam didn't achieve black type until she was 4. |
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Not denying he faces formidable opponents but I think I can pass them at the prices available..plus apart from the front two in the market the rest are all beatable and to be quite honest ordinary.
I backed Oken Bruce Lee last year but find it difficult to do so again knowing he had a major injury scare after his last run (the first since last years Japan Cup). buena vista the one to beat...but a bit short...She'll be fighting out the finish but if i back her at the price its going to be win or bust....no way I'm backing nakayama festa after he was laid out for the arc...his connections shouldve saved him for the Arima Kinan on Christmas Day. I know Deep Impact achieved this...beaten in the Arc and then bounced back in the JC but he was different class and besides he was doped up to the eyeballs in the Arc...got DQ'd in the end. What intrigued me about JT was that Aidan selected this race as his next outing...HANG ON theres the far far easier Hong Kong Vase in a couple weeks time. He would hack up in that but he chooses to chuck him in a one of the toughest 12f contests of the season. hmmmm. OBrien is clearly picking his targets with this fella. |
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Ben 10 , if you check my sources quoted above you will see that Vodka was never rated higher than 120 during her illustrious career whereas Buena Vista is currently rated 121 . They are the facts so unless you know more than the Japanese Handicappers about their horses ......
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ELG , Joshua Tree has just been announced as a selection by the HKJC for the Vase so it is not as if he has chosen this heat ahead of HK - the intention is clearly to run in both with ( by APOB standards at this time of the year ) a particularly fresh horse. I wouldnt dismiss the Japanese 3yos so readily , wouldnt surprise me if one of them went close here - to say Pelota was an eyecatcher on his last start is putting it mildly !
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SM, as I said I feel that Vodka on her day was the better filly, she seemed to have something about her, but maybe that's just me and I'm not going to go too overboard arguing about a pound difference. Interesting shout with the 3 year olds, good luck if you take one of them.
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No market here ..
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Wat time os this on? TV??
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I still haven't found the price I was looking for.
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The race is 6.20 UK time, does anybody know if it can be watched on TV at all?
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20/1 is too small mate
If you followed International Racing then you would understand that its form is in no way good enough. If Joshua Tree Joshua Tree wins the Japan Cup then i will give up betting altogether ....it doesnt even have a chance of getting placed in the big race on Sunday. My pick for the race is the french raider Marinous and a few checkles on Dandino being the euros who go there. I actually think its going to be between these 2 horses with Nakaya Festa coming in third. |
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Why can Dandino win but JT can't?
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Aye. Thought that was odd.
Couldn't have Dandino in a month of sundays, tbh. Has been at it all season long. |
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Bizarre
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I've seen worst horses win the JC. Race littered with upsets and boilovers.
I'm also looking at Mores Wells too at a fancy price. |