Horse Antepost
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22 Nov 10
16:20
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Date Joined:
20 Sep 06
I know a lot of people on here are in love with kauto, but i've always been in the denman camp...
Of course for the hennessy he's supposedly back to top form though he has to give chunks of weight away like he did last year.
I do think with denman that he was never the same horse since his heart operation. the denman that won the gold cup in 2008 was a more impressive pyschical specimen and essentially unstoppable.
However the real question is, can he give chunks of weight away to the likes of weird al, diamond harry and pandorama? after all what a friend gave him a huge fright last year. and I don't think for one moment that last year's 2nd season chasers are a patch on this year's vintage.
But if anyone can denman can. i'm still haunted however, by the horrible mistake's he made under mccoy at newbury last year, and I wonder if his jumping might fold under pressure in the home straight when weird al and other's put it up to him. of course having sam thomas back is a definite plus but I wonder if it's sentiment guiding me towards backing the great beast.
what do others think?
Of course for the hennessy he's supposedly back to top form though he has to give chunks of weight away like he did last year.
I do think with denman that he was never the same horse since his heart operation. the denman that won the gold cup in 2008 was a more impressive pyschical specimen and essentially unstoppable.
However the real question is, can he give chunks of weight away to the likes of weird al, diamond harry and pandorama? after all what a friend gave him a huge fright last year. and I don't think for one moment that last year's 2nd season chasers are a patch on this year's vintage.
But if anyone can denman can. i'm still haunted however, by the horrible mistake's he made under mccoy at newbury last year, and I wonder if his jumping might fold under pressure in the home straight when weird al and other's put it up to him. of course having sam thomas back is a definite plus but I wonder if it's sentiment guiding me towards backing the great beast.
what do others think?
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Replies: 14
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TBH I have always been in the Denman camp and he has won me so much that I will back him blindly anyway. I have backed him E/W at 5's but my main bet will be on Pandorama. If they go head to head at the last there will only be one horse I will be cheering on though THE TANK.
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Honks up. DENMANIA runs wild once more
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this has to be one of the best hennessy fields ever. i am a huge denman fan but he has a huge task giving almost 2 stone to some cracking young chasers. i am thrilled that sam thomas is back in the saddle as i didn't think tony mc'coy was the right man for the horse. he never jumped with the same fluency until the last few fences in the gold cup and he looked to be fighting with his jockey from the home bend.
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Much as i love Denman to expect the mighty beast to give over 2 stone to some cracking young chasers must be a step too far.
Plusses are he's "looking great"(and he's been burly too) seems he's trained v v well which is rare for Denman and Nichols is quite bullish(last yr he thought he'd finish "4th or 5th") and we all saw the reaction when Denman came home. Sam Thomas is a real plus to. Negatives Id say this is the best hennessy Denman has been in and without doubt relatively his worse terms. Can he do it? most definitely Will he do it?Probabaly not I think he's gonna need to have galloped the field legless before 3 out as if theres youngbloods breathing down his neck im not sure his jumpinh will hold. |
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denman didnt have a heart operation btw.
will be very tough for him to do it this year but 9/2 is a massive price imo. |
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For me this isn't a race to form a strong opinion on! Anyone who calls them self a racing fan will want Denman to win; he shouldn't be able to, but he shouldn't of been able to last year and did! The 2nd season chasers all have questions still to answer, best watched this, just enjoy it!
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Very unlikely winner but could well place if running to within a few pounds of it's best. On RPR's it has twice hit 184, firstly when winning the Gold Cup and again in this race last year (a rating which I think in hindsight was too high). It's run well below that rating the three times it has run since then. The camp is bullish that the horse is in good order and although you'd be very hard pushed to say that it's improving, it's just about plausible that it could bang another 184 in.
This being the case, the new boys who will be off 10.0 will have to put in a 159 to beat the tank. These boys ARE improving. So far they have hit the following ratings: Diamond Harry 160, Burton Port 160, Weird Al 159, Pandorama 157, all in their novice campaigns. Chuck into the mix the fact that 6 of the 8 horses between Denman and the new boys have posted better figures at the weights than Denman in recent times and you have an idea of the enormity of the task Denman faces ! It's previous well being at the course has to be questioned too after it's last Newbury run. It can also be a bit dodgy at the start of it's races - often a sign of remembering previous physical discomfort. I accept the point that in a gruelling race such as this, many will fail to run to their best marks and that is why despite the above I believe it will place if at it's absolute best, but as a win only proposition it is surely a bridge too far. Pipebet : Win 12-1 2nd - 4th 11/8 5th+ 8/11 |
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I love Denman and if he wins I'll be delighted. Had a few quid on but I think I'll be doing an e/w on one of a few (Hey Big Spender/China Rock - can't make my mind up. Initially thought Hey Big Spender but China Rock's run at Down Royal behind Kauto keeps nagging at me).
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Yep always been in the TANKS camp too and am backing him blindly
 think Pandorama is a huge danger though and will be ebtting him too but lets hope DENMANIA can run wild for 1 more season.COME ON THE TANK!!!! |
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i think if you put up 12-1 on denners it wouldn't last long
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Win only MP ! It's theoretical only of course, but that's the chance of it winning IMO.
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that's like laying man u or chelsea at 12-1 for the prem
denners always there when the trophies are handed out [smiley:crazy] |
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also you must agree that it doesn't make sense to say a horse is 12-1 to win, yet nearly evs to place?
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12-1 to win and 11-8 to place is derived from the following probs that are my opinion of it's finishing position chances:
1st 7% 2nd 11% 3rd 14% 4th 17% This gives a tiny margin in my favour using my above theoretical prices, but basically that's how it's 12s to win only and 11/8 2nd-4th. Incidentally, the above gives a betfair place dividend for 4 places of 1.89, which is it's current value, it's just that my probability profile is much less flat than most would assume. But as I have described, that's the just sort of shape it should be for this renewal IMO. |