Horse Antepost
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
19 Nov 10
20:01
Joined:
Date Joined:
09 Mar 04
While I banged up I decided to spend time study material I dont often read or explored with much detail.
For instance I took the time to sit down and study the Dosage system. Crazy stuff but worth reading and I can now do my own calculations on the subject and decide myself. dont laugh but with so much time on my hands I actualled memorised all of the chefs de races :O
Also I did an indepth list of all the tracks I profit from and lose at....we're talking a global list.
I then looked at the main system I use. Its been working but there are faults and to be honest I took the odd bad hit with it so I hit upon the novel idea of changing the system so it selected horses that were the complete opposite to the ones I was selecting. then wrote the rules for the system, did my selections and checked the next day results. I was staggered to see the improvements. simple solution.
Finally I decided to restart an ol' pet project that I never got around to completing...my own computerised handicap model for predicting winners.
well I got pretty far with this...as fas as I could go without any computer...mostly complex calculations and lots of fairly complicated equations.
I've decided to limit the program for just 1 track for now...Ascot and for the distances between 9furlongs 12furlongs...as i seem to do best at these distance more so than other.
I then discovered a paper on the Kelly Criterion for a betting strategy and that sounded good so I started applying the formulas to my bets and that worked on paper.
Spent most of today trying to computerise all of this and its a pain but worth it I think.
Anywon ever attempted something like this? quite fun once you get into it and I'm hoping quite rewarding financially too.
all in all it was good to just take a break (albeit enforced) for a few months and think about things.
realised doing the short game is okay for now...but if i want to make it I need a long term plan.
For instance I took the time to sit down and study the Dosage system. Crazy stuff but worth reading and I can now do my own calculations on the subject and decide myself. dont laugh but with so much time on my hands I actualled memorised all of the chefs de races :O
Also I did an indepth list of all the tracks I profit from and lose at....we're talking a global list.
I then looked at the main system I use. Its been working but there are faults and to be honest I took the odd bad hit with it so I hit upon the novel idea of changing the system so it selected horses that were the complete opposite to the ones I was selecting. then wrote the rules for the system, did my selections and checked the next day results. I was staggered to see the improvements. simple solution.
Finally I decided to restart an ol' pet project that I never got around to completing...my own computerised handicap model for predicting winners.
well I got pretty far with this...as fas as I could go without any computer...mostly complex calculations and lots of fairly complicated equations.
I've decided to limit the program for just 1 track for now...Ascot and for the distances between 9furlongs 12furlongs...as i seem to do best at these distance more so than other.
I then discovered a paper on the Kelly Criterion for a betting strategy and that sounded good so I started applying the formulas to my bets and that worked on paper.
Spent most of today trying to computerise all of this and its a pain but worth it I think.
Anywon ever attempted something like this? quite fun once you get into it and I'm hoping quite rewarding financially too.
all in all it was good to just take a break (albeit enforced) for a few months and think about things.
realised doing the short game is okay for now...but if i want to make it I need a long term plan.
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 5
|
By:
The Kelly Criterion is trying to predict what is the correct percentage of your bank to bet, in order to maximise profit longterm. If you imagine a graph of profits against proportion of bank bet, then it looks like a mountain, but it is a bit precipitous on the other side, so I'd recommend betting, say for example, only half the suggested stake. If your system is working you'll still make a profit, but take longer about it, but you're protecting yourself a bit if the system is profitable, but not as profitable as you were expecting.
|
|
By:
there used to be good stuff on neigh.co.uk about dosage.
|
|
By:
Very commendable ELG
I have re-invented the wheel at least a dozen times in the past thirty years, although computers and the internet allow you to "get there" so much quicker these days. I have read theories on Kelly, the Dosage, sectional timing, read books by all the famous American "horse players" and even a paper on the history and integrity of thoroughbred dam lines revealed in equine mtDNA variation (actually I found that in a pile of old racing stuff and read it again the other day - a bit like trying to understand the questions on Universally Challenged). I should also add, just to prove that I am normal, that for a very short period of my life I was a Mordinite; thankfully I am now fully cured, but still wonder at his theories of winner finding. Of everything I have read, the most satisfying (or disturbing) was a comment made by Andrew Beyer (an American racing guru). He said that a respected and successful punting colleague of his used to mark up his selections following hours of rigid and detailed analysis.... and then back the one which he thought couldn't win. Now I have had many eureka moments (that haven't lasted long) but this gem of advice has stood me in good stead in my darkest hours. Good luck with your studies - there is nothing quite like it. |
|
By:
Thanks lads....
I got the idea for this from a very rich (now retired) friend of mine. about 10 years ago he broke his leg quite severly and was in hospital for over 6 months. He spent the time reading all about wines and grapes. in the end he became such an expert on it thats he's made millions from trading on it :o on a personal note it was nice to take a step back and really examine the way I do things. |
|
By:
It cannot be done
 |