BECHER CHASE Trends

10 years trends for Becher Chase at Aintree on Sunday:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-1-4
7yo: 1-1-14
8yo: 2-9-32
9yo: 4-6-48
10yo: 3-2-26
11yo: 0-4-15
12yo+: 0-0-11
9 of the last 10 winners have been aged 8 to 10 though that age bracket has accounted for 70.67% of the total runners.
No horse aged over 10 (0-4-26) has won the race in the past 10 years while the only horse aged below 8 to win this since 2000 was Silver Birch who subsequently won the Grand National.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 6-11-71
Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 4-11-79
Higher weights have held an edge in recent years with 3 of the last 4 winners carrying 11-5+.
Top Weight: 16FF541FP1 (3-1-10)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 143 to 157: 4-3-16
Horses rated 127 to 142: 2-15-82
Horses rated 112 to 126: 4-5-52
The last 4 winners have been officially rated 138 to 148.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on their last completed start
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M4F+
7 of 10 winners had won over 3M+
8 of 10 winners had run in the last 45 days
7 of 10 winners had run in at least 13 chases (3 exceptions trained by Paul Nicholls)
7 of 10 winners had previously run in 10 to 22 handicap chases (3 exceptions were trained by Paul Nicholls)
7 of 10 winners (last 6) had won no more than 2 handicap chases
7 of 10 winners were 4th or 5th season chasers (all 3 exceptions were trained by Paul Nicholls)
8 of 10 winners had won a chase at class 2 or higher
5 of 10 winners had run over the National fences (3 of 5 exceptions were trained by Nicholls, 1 had won the Cork National and other had completed the last 2 Irish Nationals)

Other Races
Previous season's winner: U232 (0-3-4)
Scottish National winner (Merigo): 5 (0-0-1)
Badger Ales Trophy winner (Meanus Dandy): 5 (0-0-1)
Desert Orchid Silver Cup winner (Gullible Gordon): 0 (0-0-1)
3 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown in Dec, finishing 042
3 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in previous year's Troytown, finishing 764
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Leopardstown H'cap Chase, finishing 44
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Irish Grand National, finishing P8
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Pat Taaffee H'cap Chase, finishing 02
2 of 10 winners ran in that year's Grand National, finishing BF
2 of 10 winners ran in the Blue Sq Gold Cup, finishing 4P

Racing Style
8 of 10 winners (last 6) raced prominently with leaders throughout

Trainers
Paul Nicholls (3-3-14) did not have a runner last year but in the previos 5 years he had trained the winner three times and had the runner-up in the other two years.
Dessie Hughes (2-1-3) has trained the first and third in 2008 and the winner in 2009.
Sue Smith (1-2-9) trained Ardent Scout to gain a win and 2 places in the race.
Irish based trainers (3-2-23) have a good recent record in the race having won it 3 times in the last 5 years.

Price
No strong trends on prices, with the last 3 winners going off shorter than 8/1 but 3 others winners since 2000 going off 25/1 or bigger.
Favourites (2-4-11) have won 2 renewals in the past 10 years and show a level stakes loss of 1.75.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 8 to 10
- Officially rated 138 or higher
- Finished in the first 5 on last completed start
- Has run in the last 45 days
- Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F+ (ideally over 3M+)
- Run at least 13 times over fences
- Run in 10 to 22 handicap chases (but won no more than 2)
- 4th or 5th season chaser (or trained by Paul Nicholls)
- Previous form over the National fences is a positive
- Likes to race up with the pace
- Trained by Paul Nicholls or Dessie Hughes