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Looks like being a decent race.
My early picks at the 5 day stage are Irish Raptor if the ground is goodish and maybe In Compliance who once promised to be a top notch horse.
Any views?
My early picks at the 5 day stage are Irish Raptor if the ground is goodish and maybe In Compliance who once promised to be a top notch horse.
Any views?
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looks a goood race, i just hope it doesnt cut up like last year
Looks like it could be the best Beecher Chase in recent history [:D]
my stablemate, maljimar. went well until fell at bechers brook second time around in the national. will be a good race anyhow id say
Reve I tend to agree quietly fancy Maljimar to pick up a big handicap this year and this could be the race.
think im goin t take the 10s about him. i wish betfair would put up the market... ive asked em already but theyre dopey
Im thinking Abbeybraney, payed alot of money for him and they are dieing for a national winner connections. Just not sure if its a defo runner or not.
Notre Pere at 16s and Imoncloudnine at 14's my 2 that would side with split stake both win singles
167 this time last year, now 151, he's well handicapped if you want to write off last season. Does anybody know what went wrong with him though? Don't think the ground will be soft enough on Sunday anyway, save him for when winter really starts.
In Compliance for me, keeping up the stable's great record in the race
i think its only 3m 2f? id say he will definately stay that and he is going to run unless something unforseen happens to him in the meantime. i think hes a fair price at 11 on here given how well he jumped in the national.. with one exception
apologises i got the distance wrong, a race thats sits in my mind is William Hill Chase where he got nailed on the line by Witchman Lineman and when i watched that race i just didnt think he got home over the distance. I suppose 11s is fair price.
Peter Bowen knows hoe to get them ready over the big ones, and am think ew BALLYVESEY with its light weight.
Will Maljimar stay 3m 5f?
He was still tanking on at Bechers second time.
Fascinated to see how Notre Pere gets on.
I so wanted them to run him at Aintree 2 years back , he was such a good jumper of fences & if the ground was testing he looked the right sort.
The wheels fell off big time last year from his fall onwards. Some promise last time , but I still wasn't convinced.
He was still tanking on at Bechers second time.
Fascinated to see how Notre Pere gets on.
I so wanted them to run him at Aintree 2 years back , he was such a good jumper of fences & if the ground was testing he looked the right sort.
The wheels fell off big time last year from his fall onwards. Some promise last time , but I still wasn't convinced.
theres have been 'hundreds' still tanking at Bechers and fallen (Bewleys Berry is an example)
maljimar saw out the cross country at chelters perfectly well when he was run to push up his handicap mark
Remember Jan 08 Chelt Festival Trails day Reve. Maljimar pulled the arms out of his handler in the Paddock for 10 minutes and was very free to post pushing out his price. However he still dotted up by 11 lengths. He then ran a creditable race when just touched off at the festival by WL on fairly soft ground despite making mistakes at the 12th 15th and 2nd last. There is no doubt imo he will stay the trip at Liverpool. Also as an older and more relaxed horse think his high cruising speed with his naturally increased stamina has him top of my list for this race.
there is another becer chase thread with loads of stats... il go get em. just so u can see the trends
10 years trends for Becher Chase at Aintree on Sunday:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-1-4
7yo: 1-1-14
8yo: 2-9-32
9yo: 4-6-48
10yo: 3-2-26
11yo: 0-4-15
12yo+: 0-0-11
9 of the last 10 winners have been aged 8 to 10 though that age bracket has accounted for 70.67% of the total runners.
No horse aged over 10 (0-4-26) has won the race in the past 10 years while the only horse aged below 8 to win this since 2000 was Silver Birch who subsequently won the Grand National.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 6-11-71
Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 4-11-79
Higher weights have held an edge in recent years with 3 of the last 4 winners carrying 11-5+.
Top Weight: 16FF541FP1 (3-1-10)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 143 to 157: 4-3-16
Horses rated 127 to 142: 2-15-82
Horses rated 112 to 126: 4-5-52
The last 4 winners have been officially rated 138 to 148.
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on their last completed start
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M4F+
7 of 10 winners had won over 3M+
8 of 10 winners had run in the last 45 days
7 of 10 winners had run in at least 13 chases (3 exceptions trained by Paul Nicholls)
7 of 10 winners had previously run in 10 to 22 handicap chases (3 exceptions were trained by Paul Nicholls)
7 of 10 winners (last 6) had won no more than 2 handicap chases
7 of 10 winners were 4th or 5th season chasers (all 3 exceptions were trained by Paul Nicholls)
8 of 10 winners had won a chase at class 2 or higher
5 of 10 winners had run over the National fences (3 of 5 exceptions were trained by Nicholls, 1 had won the Cork National and other had completed the last 2 Irish Nationals)
Other Races
Previous season's winner: U232 (0-3-4)
Scottish National winner (Merigo): 5 (0-0-1)
Badger Ales Trophy winner (Meanus Dandy): 5 (0-0-1)
Desert Orchid Silver Cup winner (Gullible Gordon): 0 (0-0-1)
3 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown in Dec, finishing 042
3 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in previous year's Troytown, finishing 764
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Leopardstown H'cap Chase, finishing 44
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Irish Grand National, finishing P8
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Pat Taaffee H'cap Chase, finishing 02
2 of 10 winners ran in that year's Grand National, finishing BF
2 of 10 winners ran in the Blue Sq Gold Cup, finishing 4P
Racing Style
8 of 10 winners (last 6) raced prominently with leaders throughout
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (3-3-14) did not have a runner last year but in the previos 5 years he had trained the winner three times and had the runner-up in the other two years.
Dessie Hughes (2-1-3) has trained the first and third in 2008 and the winner in 2009.
Sue Smith (1-2-9) trained Ardent Scout to gain a win and 2 places in the race.
Irish based trainers (3-2-23) have a good recent record in the race having won it 3 times in the last 5 years.
Price
No strong trends on prices, with the last 3 winners going off shorter than 8/1 but 3 others winners since 2000 going off 25/1 or bigger.
Favourites (2-4-11) have won 2 renewals in the past 10 years and show a level stakes loss of 1.75.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 8 to 10
- Officially rated 138 or higher
- Finished in the first 5 on last completed start
- Has run in the last 45 days
- Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F+ (ideally over 3M+)
- Run at least 13 times over fences
- Run in 10 to 22 handicap chases (but won no more than 2)
- 4th or 5th season chaser (or trained by Paul Nicholls)
- Previous form over the National fences is a positive
- Likes to race up with the pace
- Trained by Paul Nicholls or Dessie Hughes
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-1-4
7yo: 1-1-14
8yo: 2-9-32
9yo: 4-6-48
10yo: 3-2-26
11yo: 0-4-15
12yo+: 0-0-11
9 of the last 10 winners have been aged 8 to 10 though that age bracket has accounted for 70.67% of the total runners.
No horse aged over 10 (0-4-26) has won the race in the past 10 years while the only horse aged below 8 to win this since 2000 was Silver Birch who subsequently won the Grand National.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 6-11-71
Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 4-11-79
Higher weights have held an edge in recent years with 3 of the last 4 winners carrying 11-5+.
Top Weight: 16FF541FP1 (3-1-10)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 143 to 157: 4-3-16
Horses rated 127 to 142: 2-15-82
Horses rated 112 to 126: 4-5-52
The last 4 winners have been officially rated 138 to 148.
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on their last completed start
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M4F+
7 of 10 winners had won over 3M+
8 of 10 winners had run in the last 45 days
7 of 10 winners had run in at least 13 chases (3 exceptions trained by Paul Nicholls)
7 of 10 winners had previously run in 10 to 22 handicap chases (3 exceptions were trained by Paul Nicholls)
7 of 10 winners (last 6) had won no more than 2 handicap chases
7 of 10 winners were 4th or 5th season chasers (all 3 exceptions were trained by Paul Nicholls)
8 of 10 winners had won a chase at class 2 or higher
5 of 10 winners had run over the National fences (3 of 5 exceptions were trained by Nicholls, 1 had won the Cork National and other had completed the last 2 Irish Nationals)
Other Races
Previous season's winner: U232 (0-3-4)
Scottish National winner (Merigo): 5 (0-0-1)
Badger Ales Trophy winner (Meanus Dandy): 5 (0-0-1)
Desert Orchid Silver Cup winner (Gullible Gordon): 0 (0-0-1)
3 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown in Dec, finishing 042
3 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in previous year's Troytown, finishing 764
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Leopardstown H'cap Chase, finishing 44
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Irish Grand National, finishing P8
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Pat Taaffee H'cap Chase, finishing 02
2 of 10 winners ran in that year's Grand National, finishing BF
2 of 10 winners ran in the Blue Sq Gold Cup, finishing 4P
Racing Style
8 of 10 winners (last 6) raced prominently with leaders throughout
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (3-3-14) did not have a runner last year but in the previos 5 years he had trained the winner three times and had the runner-up in the other two years.
Dessie Hughes (2-1-3) has trained the first and third in 2008 and the winner in 2009.
Sue Smith (1-2-9) trained Ardent Scout to gain a win and 2 places in the race.
Irish based trainers (3-2-23) have a good recent record in the race having won it 3 times in the last 5 years.
Price
No strong trends on prices, with the last 3 winners going off shorter than 8/1 but 3 others winners since 2000 going off 25/1 or bigger.
Favourites (2-4-11) have won 2 renewals in the past 10 years and show a level stakes loss of 1.75.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 8 to 10
- Officially rated 138 or higher
- Finished in the first 5 on last completed start
- Has run in the last 45 days
- Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F+ (ideally over 3M+)
- Run at least 13 times over fences
- Run in 10 to 22 handicap chases (but won no more than 2)
- 4th or 5th season chaser (or trained by Paul Nicholls)
- Previous form over the National fences is a positive
- Likes to race up with the pace
- Trained by Paul Nicholls or Dessie Hughes
Be nice if you credited Racecaller for thieving his stats.
did i not just say that i got them from another beecher chase thead? im sure that will suffice for most
Only a couple of stats against him really however those ones dont concern me as runs well when fresh.
i wouldntbe bothered about some also. the ground shouldnt be a worry either as he goes on anything from good to soft and better
wait now... its soft mainly. mght be a little issue
Weather pretty good up here the weekend. Dont think it will be a massive problem. It will also be unraced turf.
Just done a preview of the race. It's on my blog (http://extremeconviction.blogspot.com/) or on the 'blog' part of this antepost forum. In short my selections are Whatuthink, Royal Rosa and Notre Pere if it's soft enough.
GL EC.
GL EC.
^^
Interesting blog.
Of the horses/bets featured - what has been your ROI ?
Interesting blog.
Of the horses/bets featured - what has been your ROI ?
Great read again EC. Unlucky last week, Little Josh was one of your top stats picks but you talked yourself out of him because the trainer preferred Pigeon Island. 
Were you ever close to backing him? And is that a case for just ignoring what trainers say from now on and just going by the trends?
Were you ever close to backing him? And is that a case for just ignoring what trainers say from now on and just going by the trends?
I've only started it up recently Facts.
The main part of it will be the preview of the big race handicaps. I'm going to be doing a total of 5pts for each race. The only race so far had been the Paddy Power, which bought no success. Near the end of the last season i started preparing my own stats on the handicaps and it bought me big prices winner such as Pigeon Island (25/1) Chaninbar (20/1), Always Waining (66/1), and Bluesea Cracker (40/1). I have started a blog this year to help me keep a clear record of my thoughts and results as the season has gone on. Also I'm in my final year of university and am thinking about going into this Industry and it will give me something alternative to talk about at interviews to prove my interest in the sector.
Also i've put up a few Saturday bets so far, but only for about 3 weekends, which have shown a small loss. I don't generally put short priced horses up, so hopefully one of the longer priced ones will come in sooner rather than later!
The main part of it will be the preview of the big race handicaps. I'm going to be doing a total of 5pts for each race. The only race so far had been the Paddy Power, which bought no success. Near the end of the last season i started preparing my own stats on the handicaps and it bought me big prices winner such as Pigeon Island (25/1) Chaninbar (20/1), Always Waining (66/1), and Bluesea Cracker (40/1). I have started a blog this year to help me keep a clear record of my thoughts and results as the season has gone on. Also I'm in my final year of university and am thinking about going into this Industry and it will give me something alternative to talk about at interviews to prove my interest in the sector.
Also i've put up a few Saturday bets so far, but only for about 3 weekends, which have shown a small loss. I don't generally put short priced horses up, so hopefully one of the longer priced ones will come in sooner rather than later!
Good luck. I'll watch with interest.There is a profit to be made in focussing in on certain criteria for horses running in Handicaps in Class 1,2 and 3 races at Grade 1 tracks.
It's now the basis for all my betting since 2008.
It's now the basis for all my betting since 2008.
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