Horse Antepost
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12 Nov 10
10:47
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Date Joined:
06 Mar 10
Has anyone ever done any anal ysis on Tom Segal's level stakes position over a significant period of time?
Ignoring Ante Post (a tough game to show rea profit on consistently) I'd wager his Flat Performance is better than his jumps performance by an order of magnitude.
In fact over jumps I think he has lost his confidence and is trying to hit the ball out of the park most weeks. On the Flat he appears to be well in front in big Handicaps (although of course you can never get the prices he puts up bute even allowing for that he must be in front).
Performance will be dented by the fact that on a busy Saturday he puts 5 or 6 up - not the way a pro would behave.
Be inetested in people's thoughts.
Ignoring Ante Post (a tough game to show rea profit on consistently) I'd wager his Flat Performance is better than his jumps performance by an order of magnitude.
In fact over jumps I think he has lost his confidence and is trying to hit the ball out of the park most weeks. On the Flat he appears to be well in front in big Handicaps (although of course you can never get the prices he puts up bute even allowing for that he must be in front).
Performance will be dented by the fact that on a busy Saturday he puts 5 or 6 up - not the way a pro would behave.
Be inetested in people's thoughts.
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I reckon he is better on the flat than over jumps too and may be able to give an analysis. However if you write to him at the Racing Post I reckon he would give you a full list of all selections for say the last 2 years as I am certain records are kept.
In respect to getting the prices, generally you have no problem getting on either on line or by phone, but you do need to be quick and it is a pain in the proverbial to do all selections as you just have to be on the phone or on line at the time the prices come up. Also some bookies avoid the big priced ones by not putting them on line at the correct time, however with application and determination you can generally always get on with the big 3, Stanj B365 , Paadys and the Nanny - a fair selection. VC, BlueSQ are generally not available for Toms selections. he does make a huge profit on the flat I reckon, The Stewards and races like that each year are a study in Toms diligence and hard work - he is no mystic, but just does his homework very very thoroughly. I reckon he does so well because he doesn't follow silly trmneds or other such short cuts, but he evaluates form and watches a helluva lot of videos. |
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http://tipsterform.com/tom-segal-pricewise/
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Thank you Ben - very helpful.
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1)hes better over jumps than flat
2)they dont post points profit up ,as its so big that loads of free loaders,greedy bar stools would pile in,hoping to get rich quick ,sir tom ,is for the regulars,hes the king pin,the banker of all our bets. |
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Been following tom segal for 8yrs am over £21,000 in profit(i have kept records for that period)i dont differentiate between flat/jumps but what i would say is you cant go on his point system especially when he has 2 in the one race and that is when you actually need to read his column and find out which is his main fancy etc.
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LOL, can you read through his articles and give us an updated total removing any 2nd string winners he may have had,probably more 2nd string than winners
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The figure on the site BEN has quoted don't lie and show hes a good tipster.
But thats all he is, a tipster. I think its disappointing he doesn't have the spine to become a pro backer as he obviously has the skill. How would he respond if his sole income was from Betting? |
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Well Mel Collier set up his own line and dont think he did very well. I actually think its easier for them knowing in advance the races he will be tipping on rather than trying to find one each day.The whole pricewise concept has been great for racing ie value.
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He also has the benefit of being able to tip horses at prices that most other people cant as he tips the day before.
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I think you will find that whoever is in the Wisepr1ce position will have the massive benefit of information coming into the office whether it be on targets or well-being/current form covering a wide spread of horses in a race.
This can only help you separate the wheat from the chaffe and may be the reason Collier isnt as good now he doesnt have the benefit of all of this information. In that respect Wisepr1ce is worth following as the volume of info he must get will be second to none. |
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Doesn't seem to work for the people who step in to his place and the person who done the breeders cup must have had the biggest load of crap information sent to him. So can we just give him the credit he deserves.
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i have backed every single pwise horse for the last 10 years or so. kept records for every price he advises, every price i get, profit, loss, winners, losers, runs of wins and losses. profit of approx 75k (most of which i have blown on other bets, my own and other tipsters)
prices ARE available but whereas in the past u could get hundreds on with a bit of effort, now u would be looking at 100 max probably. i dont keep a record of jumps and flat so cant answer that point. his record is prooven year on year. the most crucial point is to get the price and back every single selection even if he does 2 in a race. |
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ROI and level stake profits please. None of this £75k over 10 years nonsense( irrelevant ,unless you know the stakes involved).
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2008 - 37 wins, 61 placed, 324 losers. +61.53 points to level stake.
2009 - 36 wins, 76 placed, 198 losers. +156.60 points to level stakes 2010 to date - 34 wins, 60 placed, 206 losers. +150.36 points to level stakes to date. |
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he shouldbe knighted
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Tinkler, how do you know he isnt a pro, surely you dont think he only bets in pricewise races
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On this very forum you have at least half a dozen posters with equivalent or better records who post their tips for free.
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Mornin carvills [smiley:crazy]
Tough but interesting day ahead ....... |
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Very trappy Liam, dangerous day. Keepin the powder dry for tomorrow...
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siralex
that makes :- 2008 - 422 sels with 37 wins( for a 61 pt profit,means an av.sp of 12/1 on winners) 2009 36/310(+156) = 12/1 2010 34/300(+ 150) = 12/1 seems a bit odd to me ?!! |
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i would guess if u asked anyone what the average price of his selections were then the answer would be approx 10-16/1.
just happens to work out at 12/1 roughly each year. thats consistency for u i suppose! i dont have a breakdown of each year but the totals since i have followed him are 350 winners, 671 placed and 2031 losers from 3052 bets. bear in mid he always gets a couple of 40/1, 50/1 winners each year which boosts the stats no-end. also does a few 2 pointers as well each year. |
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OK
The above stats = 350 winners from 3052 bets. Assuming the av.of 12/1 winners = 3350 pts return to level stakes This equates to a profit of 302 points i.e 10% on turnover. This makes more sense than previous stats implying +50% profit against TN. |
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Siralex how would you do if just backing 10-1 plus selections I tried this year and he has had massive winners and it means less bets
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i havent worked that out, could do but would take an age.
very hard to say, i would imagine u would be better off but he doenst have many bets apart from the weekend so happy to do them all. i now do pwise extra as well in which he can pick the races he bets in. his record with these is even more impressive but the prices are ridiculously hard to get. i just know that if i had stuck to just his bets and not done mine i wouldnt have a mortgage!!! |
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Same here siralex. Do you remember the year he got 9 winning Saturdays. I had been following him from early part of the year and doing well yet my bets were not, he had a lean spell through Ascot which was York that year anyway I was struggling so thought I would give him a miss one Saturday, it was the day he picked Sergaent Cecil 20-1 Northum Plate then followed all them winners i did not have one of them.
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yep, that was a summer to remember.
although i also remember going thru a run of approx 40 consecutive losers. that was hard having to carry on lumping on each tip!! never beat royal ascot about 7 years ago though. 3 bets 3 winners. all in the space of an hour and a half. 16/1 into 5/1. 6/1 into 9/2. 33/1 into 10/1 that got up on the line. made 5 figure profit that day. best punting day of my life. |
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40 consec. losers? That must have been character building stuff !How many points was your bank, to sustain that losing run ?
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obviously u should keep the same stake on each tip he puts up but even though i know this and have been backing for 10 years it is easier said than done. i find it impossible to put 100 on a 25/1 shot and the same on a 6/1 shot.
i normally back them to win 1000 on each selection. my initial starting bank was £10 per horse, at the height of my wins it was anything up to £1000 although this only happened once as it was a 2/1 shot which lost! the folliwng week i had 450 on a 6 or 9/1 shot which won. patavellian i think it was. as for a bank, i will always be using pricewise profits as when he has 10 or more losers i reduce stakes considerably until he turns it round. |
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Tipped Diamond Harry antepost and on the day
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