hennesey = holiday money

DH looks good to me too arkle. if u think a change of jockey on him is going to lengthen his price then hold off. certain runner though

Denman has already won again.Free money.

Filey will be fine.

Diamond Harry is a machine under these conditions.

Taranis looks interesting .

Aside from beasts like Denman, the overall profile of Hennessy winners does tend to be for second season horses (just out of novice chase company) who are handicapped on their form as novices and who are essentially underrated by the handicapper and who have improved meanwhile. I know that the legendary Phil bull was very keen to back novices stepping into handicaps for the first time and its easy to see why this makes sense.

Diamond Harry is an interesting contender, but there are a few others that seem to like winning too - Weird Al, Pandorama and Burton port fit this bill quite well and they are also well handicapped. That is they would be well handicapped if the brute Denman was not also in the field. Although the weights go up with the withdrawal of Kauto Star, Denman still keeps all the above 3 4 lbs out of the handicap. This does not seem much weight but it is the equivalent of giving Denman 7 lengths start.

The race is therefore a very very tricky one to call, and one that I am not very keen to get involved in.

I am not someone who is a big believer in statistics. However the "trend" for second season chasers has a rational explanation and Diamond Harry looks just the type. However when the trend is bucked, its when a horse is so good, the opposition is kept from getting into the weights and the advantage of youthful improvement is nullified.

I can't have Madison I'm afraid as its 6 runs at least since he really performed. I can see Denman being quite hard to beat though. Its by no means certain that the improvers will find it easy to get past him and stop him winning, even though they get 26 lbs.

A final point though. It does make you wonder, looking at Denman who won last year off 174 and may now win again maybe off 182, what sort of horse Arkle must have been to win not conceding 26 lbs but 35 lbs, and not just win but actually have a mere exercise canter, and some time before the race be installed at 1/5 on favourite. All those years later and all the great chasers like Denman and we still have not seen another Arkle.

To win again this year off his new mark, Denman may have to run maybe between 6 and 12 lengths better than he did last year lengths better than last year. This is a pretty tall order. not impossible, but after last year's race the Racing Post sumed his performance up as "an all time great" or something like that. Does give you the idea of the sort of task he has this year. He is probably not quite in his prime either (otherwise I think he would not have lost to Imperial Commander in the Gold Cup). On balance I would be a layer of Denman and fear as I say one of the improvers may just get him this year.

to be honest though I am not inclined to be a player myself just aside for having  a few quid on the Segal selections. If they can't win I really hope Denman stuffs them all again - it would be so amazing if he did win off his current mark - it would be possibly the best handicap performance since Desert Orchid and mnaybe better even than anything he ever did (although Dezzie's Irish National win was pretty astonishing).

1989 Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot. Stil smarting about it and the fact that its no longer a handicap.

I think last year Denman was value for further (idled in front) and the horse he gave a lot of weight and a beating to went on to land 2 Grade Ones. I agree he might have peaked but if there is one more great performance left you will see it Saturday week - everything looks right. And I'll be there so here's hoping!

Dessie won off 185 in the RP chase by around 8l The next years Grand National winner was 25l further back receiving around 30 odd pounds, that gives you the scale of the task Denman faces before hes given the "Handicapper king " Tag

I think he is the 'handicapper king' of the last 2 decades whichever way you slice it. Carvills Hill in the Welsh would be one of the few comparable performances with Dessie/Denman but that was on extreme ground against boats mainly.

I've been to Newbury once. Won a raffle at the London Racing Club evening, and one of the prizes was free tickets etc for two to any day at Newbury (except Hennessy day), so I went along on Tote Gold Trophy Day.

Go quite often. £40 for top enclosure a bit strong but its a superb facility and racing is always top notch.

Makes a nice change from Chelts which is a bit frantic in terms of getting a drink etc.

I really hope Denman wins it would be great for the sport & looking forward to going for the 3 days next week - I love the winter festival & I think the racing is great quality without quite so much hustle as cheltenham !

love Denman to bits, followed him over a cliff.

But if this were a hurdle race, he could not possibly give 26lbs to this horse.

If this were a brush hurdle race, he could not possibly give 26lbs to this horse.

The only question remaining is if this horse has brushed up his tardy jumping from his novice days to inflict a crushing defeat on the champion.

This horse? Diamond Harry.

As Diamond Harry's biggest punter over hurdles and NHF, I cant have him over jumps.
If any of u saw the Paddy Power and Little Josh sluicing up, then Weird Al has got to be the fav next Saturday. Running at a distance short of best at Carlisle he dead heated with LJ. That is simply the best form going into the race. Unfortunately the price has gone, but 5/1 is still overpriced imo.

have a good time in Florida Arkle!!!!

wd
GL.

vwd