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Celtic Son
11 Nov 10 12:08
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Date Joined: 20 Jan 05
| Topic/replies: 1,897 | Blogger: Celtic Son's blog
I am struggling to find a reason why Mad Max can't win the Paddy Power Chase. Of course, the weight is an issue, but he goes so well fto, has had his breathing tweaked again, trip isn't a problem as he won over it and was staying on again in the Arkle after making a mistake, ground shouldn't be an issue, second season novice seems a positive and has a handy habit of winning. I've a feeling the classier horses this year may be better than the lower weights. I've taken the 9s ew with Paddy Power now he's defo in.

However, one at the bottom I though had a chance at 50s is Door Boy, but only if the prep run at Carlisle was a prep run - has to be really. Some of his form off a low weight wouldn't see him a 50-1 shot, especially with the stable in much better form this season.
Pause Switch to Standard View Paddy Power Chase, Mad Max and Door Boy
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Report Celtic Son November 11, 2010 12:09 PM GMT
I meant the Paddy Power Gold Cup obviously.
Report JOCI Club November 11, 2010 1:53 PM GMT
I'm a fan of Mad Max, with the only very slight negative being that the race has been dominated by 6 and 7 year olds in recent years.
Report abbott November 11, 2010 3:11 PM GMT
dont think either would win on soft though they do have form on it.

I love Mad Max and he is high on my horse to follow list this season but I just cant have him Saturday. Personally I think 2m will be his distance this year
Report Celtic Son November 11, 2010 3:49 PM GMT
I think the 6 and 7yo stat doesn't apply to him, as it's more about being a second season novice, him being a late starter makes the age issue lessen.

No way is he a 2 miler, he's nowhere near quick enough to fight it out with the best. If you watch the Arkle, he does nothing quickly but stays on pleasingly after making a mistake, and then stayed every yard of 2m4f at Aintree. Trip should not be an issue, maybe the weight late on, but not the distance.
Report bigben November 11, 2010 4:49 PM GMT
Do any of you Mad Max backers have any doubts about him being able to show his best around Cheltenham?

I know he was going well in The Arkle until making a mistake two out, but i just cant forget the way he just stopped when travelling well in The Ballymore.
Report abbott November 11, 2010 5:13 PM GMT
he was doing everything quick enough before he made his mistake. If he hadnt he would have hardly been staying on would he. Just because he stays 2m4f doesnt mean he will prove best at it.
We will see later in the season.
Report Celtic Son November 11, 2010 5:50 PM GMT
Do you think Mad Max could beat Big Zeb, Sizing Europe, Master Minded, Twist Magic or Tataniano at their best?

Just because he was keeping on doesn't mean he is quick enough. He defintely stays, as apart from a modest effort in the Ballymore, his form at 2m3f-2m4f is 111. His winning siblings all won over further than 2m, and Carole's Legacy won at 3m. His sire Kayf Tara should impart the same amount of stamina as Sir Harry Lewis.

In fact, I'd suggest there is little evidence to suggest he's a 2miler. Two wins in extended bumpers suggest he's not a 2miler, all his runs over hurdles were 2m3f+, and he won a 2m novice chase before a poor effort. His best runs over fences were a staying on again 4th in the Arkle, and winning a 2m4f race at Aintree, where the runner-up didn't stay, but is still classy. He crushed The Nightingale who is definitely a 2m4f horse.

There is not one 2m race I'd expect to see Mad Max in this season, unless somehow they found a bad graduation/conditions chase.  This is from Henderson -

Our plan is to run in the Paddy Power because two and a half miles suits him, as he showed at Aintree when beating Somersby. As we have always said, he isn’t really mad but can be a bit of a fool at times, purely due to his enormous size. He had a fantastic season, also running well in the Arkle until clouting the second-last fence, which of course will not be in the same place this season. He is a horse who likes to bowl along and attack his fences and is likely to prove best at trips short of three miles. In the longer term, the Ryanair could be on the agenda. He’s had wind problems in the past, but, fingers crossed, that seems under control.
Report abbott November 11, 2010 6:20 PM GMT
Your missing the point he wasnt 'keeping on' before the mishap.
He was actually traveling as good as anything in the race. He was only beaten 5 and 1/4L if not making the mistake I would suggest that he may have even won the race.

Ive read the quotes from Henderson but this is a personal opinion and the horse only interests me over 2m
Report abbott November 11, 2010 6:21 PM GMT
And for what its worth yes I do think he could beat all above at 2m round Cheltenham with the possible exception of Tataniano
Report Celtic Son November 11, 2010 7:35 PM GMT
abbott Joined: 04 Nov 02
Replies: 508 11 Nov 10 18:21   


And for what its worth yes I do think he could beat all above at 2m round Cheltenham with the possible exception of Tataniano
 

You're punting out a horse beaten in an Arkle to beat two Queen Mother winners, one a multiple one, and an Arkle winner around Cheltenham. Shrewd.

Okay, you please tell me exactly where your encouragement that he's a 2miler comes from.

Love the bit where you have completely ignored Henderson, who admittedly is only his trainer and takes advice from jockeys who have ridden him. He says he'd like to try Mad Max over 3m this season in one publication, but perhaps he's wrong.

Here's a few other horses that finished third or fourth in the Akle, you choose your favourite top-class 2miler from this lot - Osana, Mad Max, Planet Of Sound, Made In Taipan,Noland, Thyne Again, Jack The Giant,Faasel, Foreman, Wild Passion, River City and Watson Lake.
Report andyd08 November 11, 2010 8:46 PM GMT
mad max is not well hcapped

imperial commander came here and ran off 139 before going on to ryanair glory (and he obv loved the place)

mad max comes here and has to run off 157

he is obviously a very good horse but given its his first run of the year it would be asking a lot to run to the kind of rating he would need to in order to win this even if he is a 160+ chaser in the making
Report ENGLANDBARNES1 November 11, 2010 10:13 PM GMT
Mad max imo has doubts regarding if his best form will show up up the hill. It also has an average record in big fields.

Door boy on the otherhand blew up when well in contention and was eased down at carlisle and will come on for the run.
The ground will also be much better than the heavy it went through last race.
It has struggled though in two races with big fields at chelt, although was 2nd another time at chelt on soft when facing 7 others.

I've got mad max as a 18/1 shot on my tissue, and door boy at 20/1, so 50/1 appears to be decent value imo.
Report Celtic Son November 12, 2010 8:26 AM GMT
I definitely take on board the weight issue, the big field isn't for me as you don't run in an Arkle and not be able to finish fourth if you can't handle racing at a strong pace. He likes to lead or be prominent, so shouldn't be an issue. I think that although history suggests otherwise, the top three in the weights set a stiff task given their class and may be capable of holding off the less exposed sorts, although Mad Max hardly exposed himself over fences.

Door Boy is much too big, that is agreed also.
Report abbott November 12, 2010 11:29 AM GMT
Sorry I didnt realise I wasnt entitled to my own opinion.

Everybody on here thinks your an idiot and know I understand why.
Report Celtic Son November 12, 2010 2:51 PM GMT
Fair enough, you know better than Nicky Henderson, and despite all the facts I give you, the intelligent response you give is 'It's my opinion'.

Can you just answer the one question I posed oh shrewd one, where is the form to suggest he's a 2miler. Thanks. It appears Henderson went for the Ballymore with him as a novice hurdler, not the Supreme, but as you say, you'd have no problem thinking Mad Max would beat Sizing Europe, Big Zeb or Master Minded over 2m at Cheltenham.

All I ask of you is to put forward a logical arguement why he's a 2miler, one based on fact obviously.

By the way, I've been told everybody here thinks you're an idiot, and now I understand why.
Report abbott November 12, 2010 7:50 PM GMT
Im not really interested in haveing an argument with you logical or otherwise. gl with your bet.
Report Celtic Son November 12, 2010 8:44 PM GMT
Firstly, because you don't have one and secondly, that is a truly juvenile attempt at spelling having. That is embarrassing.
Report metro john November 12, 2010 9:39 PM GMT
I believe his spelling to be first class ,good luck to  Max Rockatansky and Door boy and yes they are the value!
Report Celtic Son November 13, 2010 2:46 PM GMT
Beaten by the weight but ran a cracker. Level weights of Ryanair might make him interesting in that contest.
Report Howdi November 13, 2010 5:23 PM GMT
thought this was an awful write up as usual.
Report Celtic Son November 13, 2010 9:36 PM GMT
You learnt to spell yet thickoid?
Report neill d November 15, 2010 9:37 AM GMT
Easy retort would have been that he ran in the Arkle rather than going just to Aintree which suggests that Henderson at least wanted to give him his chance over 2 miles. The fact that stayers often run in the Arkle doesn't definitely mean that Henderson didn't think he was  a 2 miler. For what its worth he is probably better at 2 and a half but he ought to have gone better than that to have a chance in the Ryanair, never looked like winning the race at any stage. His Aintree win isn't working out great either.
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