*MORGIANA HURDLE*.....(2.40pm Sunday 14th Nov.)

Already been reported that HF does not run.

Solwhit should outclass these imo. HF not running, Sublimity wants getter ground to be at his best, VLV is not a grade 1 horse imo.

* better

Solwhit 2/1 against these bunch of jokers ?!

(Presuming Summit Meeting doesn't run?)

Sublimity is no joker if getting his ground

slightly concerned that connections report solwhit not to be as forward as last year...with the run bringing him on...a fit vlv could be a problem.

that's the question mark duffy. But then if he had a run he'd be about 4/5 imo.

budd, the ground is heavy.

Plus been beaten last twice by Solwhit and is now a 10 yo.

fair point sint

duffy Joined: 28 Mar 03
Replies: 1881 09 Nov 10 12:57 
slightly concerned that connections report solwhit not to be as forward as last year...with the run bringing him on

Believing what Charles Byrne says.
Wouldnt trust him if he siad it was Wednesday tommorrow id have to check the calendar.
Hes probably unsure himself when hes telling the truth.

THEN THERE WAS 4 !

Voler La Vedette (15/8) ,
Solwhit (2) ,
Donnas Palm (7/2) ,
Sublimity (6)

Solwhit spaff job. Hell you get evens dutching with vdv. Sublimity ain't winning and donnas isn't in their class.

lol Geoff.

Agree with you CV. 2/1 looks a gift in what I have down as a 2 horse race. It was a very poor heat VDV won first time up imo. I do think this might be her time of year mind...

Agree with CV, struggling to believe Solwhit it not fav despite lack of a run.

VLV unbeaten Oct, Nov, Dec.

What makes the pace here? I thought Solwhit would be shade of odds on but still can't bring myself to back at 2s as I think the race has the makings of a 2 furlong sprint.

grade 1 Joined: 22 Nov 02
VLV unbeaten Oct, Nov, Dec.

Also her record on ground softer than good is 7 runs, 7 wins. The fact she was able to win despite the good ground last time bodes well.

If heavy i agree Sublimity should'nt win,but he aint no joker.

Donnas may have his best chance of winning a G1 on Sunday. Missed the Lismullen in favour of this - Solwhit wins if ready but may not be at his best tho!

Solwhit must be fat as a pig, some bookie must have seen him, 2/1 seems too good to be true

Perhaps the CH is still on their mind,bad run,probably genuine excuse,but no guarantee he is in the sort of form he was at times last season.
Probably turn into a sprint like a lot of Irish hurdle races seemed to last season.

As for Sublimity,even at 10 he would still be capable of producing good performances if given the ground.He was close to the top Irish form last season most of the time running on unsuitable going.
And i was adamant at the time that he would have been placed in the CH had he not been so unlucky in getting injured,and the way the race panned out i think i would have been right.

solwhits subsequent run when only going down a neck to hurricane fly on good ground at punchestown shows us that he was over whatever was ailing him up to the festival i reckon.

Not sure about races in April myself.You may be right, but i would'nt use that race as a yardstick too much,especially when looking at the pretty average horses beaten not too far.Its difficult i find trying to weigh up form late in the season when horses are often over the top.

HF had been off since this race, a horse who always needs a run to get fit. So it's hard to know what that form from Punchestown is like. Still Solwhit love mud and Punchestown and 2/1 is a steal. Put a saver on VLV if you're worried.

Voler La Vedette a shocking price for all that she's 8 from 8 with cut in the ground. She has to improve a nice bit for this.
Solwhit is overpriced if he's straight but that's a major doubt; trainer has said he's not as forward as last year but his comments in the past have been less that trustworthy.
Which brings me to Donnas Palm the pick of the prices at 7/2. Given his form-figures before Christmas you're pretty much assured a peak effort and if so he's probably up to running to a figure of 160. That's good enough to win most renewals of this and it's worth taking the chance that Solwhit won't be at his best - and remember he is only a 165 horse anyway.
With all that said, I've backed Solwhit for the Champion Hurdle - the 20s on here is wrong.

Donnas Palm when running before Xmas:1121112111.
The defeats came to Hurricane Fly and Rite Of Passage.

Hurricane Fly's STATS after a 100+ break are 11131, so not so sure about him needing a run to get fit. You could argue he is best fresh,tbf.

Solwhit should really win this but i'd rather let him win without my cash on because I simply dont trsut the yard and hate them more. Donna's Palm could be the value shot as Prospero says.

* 100 day +

Also, could they be using this a prep for the G1 coming up at thend of the month ? Barry & Sanrda or summat

tbf those donnas palm wins weren't against much opposition were they... fav. in each and every one of them...and as pointed out...when up against 2 top quality horses...got beat

Some fking laughable stats to back up selections here. Solwhit should win if fit. Sublimity no chance.

Or is Sublimity 3/3 after having a sugar lump at 9am?

I find these very early season races difficult to fathom, as you've got fitness issues to deal with, and you just don't know how straight some of the horses are going to be. All things being equal, you'd fancy Solwhit maybe 8 times out of 10, but at this stage of the season, all things aren't equal. I might be missing out on a great price on Solwhit if he wins, but I'm not prepared to pay to find out at this stage.

which STATS Wosp ? I thought mine re HF actually supported the case for Solwhit.

Im with JOCI club here, Solwhit should win this 2 lengths but i'd rather let him do it and watch. No Bet. gl

Slagging someone for dividing a Noel Meade horses form into 2 different sections of the season is rather foolish imo.

Obviously its not an exact science but heres's a quick look at more laughable stats.

Meades stable S/R.

06/07
Oct-Dec 22%
Jan-Apr 10.5%

07/08
Oct-Dec 20%
Jan- Apr 10%

08-09
Oct-Dec 17%
Jan-Apr 9%

09-10
Oct-Dec 19%
Jan-Apr 8%

Donna's Palm after Xmas is 720722 with only one decent run 2nd to Solwhit in the Irish Champion Hurdle. I like Donnas and at least you can be certain of fitness. I think Donnas will be peaking on Sunday and Byrnes will hardly have Solwhit fully fit.

They are not laughable stats,they are Facts.His record before xmas is chalk and cheese to his record after,fair enough if you choose to ignore that,but out of order to have a go at those that dont.

No bet for me,fitness etc,tricky and best watched.I aint that desperate to find a 2/1 winner to be honest.

Reading this thread i have a feeling i am going to get some nice odds about Sublimity this season.I look forward to it.
May not win on Sunday,although not as clear as some seem to think imo,but i feel he will win a race or 2 and will be on when/if it happens.

me ar*se he will

what a turnout !!! 4 runners!

I agree bud, but he needs his conditions. Which is good ground, leopardstown and not facing solwhit or hurricane fly who are out of his league these days. He may be too old, we'll see how he is and trainers opinion after sunday.

If I pick up nice odds on him this season and get a place I'll be happy enough.

He does need his conditions to be at his best i agree,although a good performance last season against Solwhit on softer than he would like shows he can perform on softer going.
Dont agree he is way behind any of the Irish yet,lets see when he gets the chance to race against them on decent ground.Thats the time to judge him.Yes he is 10 but relatively lightly raced cos of his problems.I aint given up on him yet,a lot seem to and i look forward to taking them on here.One thing i know,i will have good odds!!

Probably should not say too much,but dont think it will make much difference!!
CV,wheres the evidence he is in a different league now to Solwhit mate??

Soft ground when beaten 2 lengths by Solwhit last season.Horrendus mistake, at the 4th last i believe,otherwise could well have won,certainly cantering all over Solwhit at the time.Good run in Fighting Fifth beating some useful animals inc Solwhit and Binocular.No doubt their are excuses for their runs,usually is,but thats what happened.
Soft/heavy when Solwhit beat him 6 lengths,fair enough on that going.
Like i say,look forward to doing battle with some of you.

All four entries declared!

Well bud you are right in that it's hard to say solwhit is out of his league on their form from last season. Bit here's my take.

Sublimity is now ten and that is old for a 2m hurdler who's aster was speed. Last season he got ahead of solwhit at newcastle where the pace in the race was a farce and the speedy horses took off at the end.

His run at christmas on yielding was his best for me and he was still held by solwhit. With Hurricane fly possessing absurd speed to muller the speedy go native, you'd expect him to have the measure of sublimity in a sprint. So I believe at his age of ten those two horses will surely have his measure.

What I'm after is an over priced sublimity on good going possible over 2m4f. Or a sublimity getting his conditions and not facing either of the two I mentioned. But really a place at big odds at leopardstown is what I think we'll get.

Yeh the age factor is against him i admit,but fewer miles on the clock than most 10 yr olds would have could compensate somewhat maybe.Plus he would not be the 1st hurdler that travels well in his races to be successful later on in his career.Sea Pigeon springs to mind and i would think their are a few others.I may be wishful thinking a bit,but i still have faith in the horse after seeing him running really well last season,and am convinced he would have run a big race in the CH,had he been fit.

Shoo in for fav?

hopefully

Well ground against Sublimity today,but cant resist the price,so a small wager on him today.No idea on the fitness of the other 3 and at their prices best left alone i think.

Solwhit is consistent, even if he isn't as forward as last year he has his ground and the measure of these.

Probably right mate,but not taking the price to find out.
Bit too short for me

Solwith is a cert

no cert imo,anyway,just about to find out

You were right,fair enough.Hope its the ground that done Sublimity,Otherwise i'm looking a tad silly!!

Solwhit hasn't been beaten by a horse other than Hurricane Fly in Ireland since 2008.

Spaff job landed :D

Nice one cv,pleased for you.Thought he was a tad short price today,but fair play to those that had confidence to wager.

Thanks mate, I got him antepost at 15/8. Then all the negative comments from trainer and owners came out over the weekend which wasn't good.

But then I realised how dodgy they are and were trying to get better odds for the horse since Hurricane Fly was not there it was a penalty kick. 

Sub had no chance with that ground imo.

'then I realised how dodgy they are'[:D]

Thank fook Solwith is the total opposite of 'dodgy'. As sound as they come

Yeh,hopefully he will get better ground at Newcastle,then we can see how good(or bad) Sublimity is this season.

Yeah you want the good ground for him. Hope he goes to Newcastle now.

Well done Solwhit backers. Different class to this lot. Donnas Palm looks one of those that will always be found out in top company.

Don't discount the old boy - he may be getting on but not that many miles on the clock and if he gets his ground he will be a different horse.

Didn't see much to be enthused about today to be honest, but then again, the market spoke volumes about his chances. I wouldn't mind betting that trainer and connections were a little disappointed with that performance.

Travelled well and jumped well,but could not quicken in the ground.Thats my take on Sublimity,and like been said,when he gets suited ground we can then judge.

Always baffles me when connections run a horse on ground they know it blatantly does not like. But then, im no horse trainer1!

Couldnt agree more Sint! Said exactly the same.

I thought there were a few positives from Sublimity though. He travelled and jumped well, just as Budd says. If they give him his optimum conditions I think he could still have a day in the sun. Not sure he's be up to a Fighting Fifth anymore, but still a good race.

when's he going to get his ground then....and be up against opposition he can beat......and he's 10 years old...."not got many miles on the clock"...he's still a 10 year old...times running out now.....he'll always travel well to a point....so if you back him, there will always be a point where you can get excited.....but in ireland, he'll always be up against solwhit on soft ground....and if he comes over here.....he may well get better ground but he'll be up against much stronger younger opposition....he's had his champion hurdle win and i'd be happy with that myself.