Horse Antepost
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After seeing yesterday's race again at Down Royal.I think it puts to bed the debate on Sizing Europe getting the trip.Could be great each way chance in the King george.
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I think he gets the trip too. But cant see how he'd reverse form with Kauto barring an accident. I'd rather bet in the w/o KS market tbh.
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Will do very well to get within 10 lengths of the mighty Kauto at Kempton.
SE should go for the ryanair. |
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He did seem to say alright but I still don't understand why they are not sticking to 2 miles. Only Big Zeb to beat in the QM.
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There is staying and there's staying with horses like China Rock
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Ryanair is the race for him. Gold Cup might be too much given Kauto, Imperial Commander, Denman and Pandorama are all out and out stayers.
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doesn't get the trip well enough to beat the big guns though....they are wasting him this year when they could a leading light in the champion chase department.
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I think they're doing the right thing personally. They tried to take on the big boys in the 2m division at the end of last year and he was beaten. With an era coming to an end in the staying division he could be a strong fancy for the 2012 Gold Cup. Follow Imperial Commanders route, King George then Ryanair.
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I'm very surprised anyone thinks that performance says he stays. It didnt to me. They didnt go very quick either.
I'd give the horse no chnace in the GC. |
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Was soft ground on an undulating track. No reason to think that on a flat track on better ground in the King George he won't stay.
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Just my opinion CV. We're all entitled to our own!
Even on a flat track in the KG, if someone like Nacarat gets going and stretches them, that would be more of a test than yesterday imo. I also think KS could have been beaten by a decent stayer yesterday. |
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You were saying you are surprised that anyone thinks that performance he stays. I was explaining why given it was his first attempt at 3m it would lead me to believe he can stay the trip.
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I know why you said it.
But I am still surprised. SE was race fit, Kauto wasnt. And whilst I accept China Rock has improved, he's no top class 3 miler imo, and neither horse got away from him. I dont think Kauto was at his best personally, and would have been vulnerable to SE if he had stayed well enough. He didnt. |
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Kauto is never ever at his best fto. His best performances always come at Kempton and Cheltenham. But Sizing Europe will improve the more he runs over staying trips. That to me was a promising run. It'll be a bigger test in the King George given the suicide pace Nacarat sets.
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Obviously Kauto is never at his best fto. Which, for me, adds even more weight to the SE not staying argument.
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needs a strong pace - always has.
needs to learn to settle over 3m. after 2 runs, there's every chance he might. KG has to be worth a go. If it doesn't pan out, give him a break (usually needs one after 3 runs) then back in time for QMCC. Sorted. |
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SE jumping wasn't that fluent and he was giving a length at every fence to Kauto's foot perfect jumping. So given improvement in that department and improvement in stamina for his run on Saturday. I can't really see how the performance could be anything other than encouraging. What else could he have done in the race to convince you? Not a hope he'll ever beat Kauto Star in a chase ever. So getting close to him should be encouraging. Look at IC last year.
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Look at IC last year?
The IC that battled all the way to the line, made KS pull out all the stops, and actually looked like he had won to me. On his seasonal debut. SE didnt do any of that. I'm not knocking the horse, I am a big fan of his. I'm also not knocking connections for trying. There is every chance that I am wrong. But you're almost asking me why I have that opinion. I just do. |
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I just mean horses that get close to Kauto fto turn out to be decent animals.
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I dont doubt he's a decent animal. A very decent animal.
I just dont believe he will be at his best at 3m. |
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Why are you so irritable, I know you're expressing your opinion, as am I. It what makes a discussion. Anyway we'll see how he does at Kempton. IMO he won't get close to Kauto and IC there, not because he doesn't stay but because he's not in their league.
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irritable
 Blimey. I was really enjoying the debate actually. |
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Because he's not in their league... over 3m
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Yeah, Kauto is a bit of a plodder these days, stays all day, but doesn't have the speed no more. No more tactical speed like back in 07/08 the 09/10 Kauto is all about riding up with the pace and never stopping, his jumping and cruising speed are his assets now. So no, he wouldn't beat Sizing Europe over 2m these days you wouldn't think. But back in his 2m days he's **** all over Sizing at Sandown.
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Agreed. His jumping has always been flashy, but its an absolute joy to watch when like yesterday isnt it. He was brilliant.... Just effortless getting over them.
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He's a seasoned horse now, he's spent years jumping fences and since he got that noseband he's been as good as perfection, only having the Cheltenham mistake. When you see horses like Sizing losing ground at fences, you can't give Kauto an extra length a every other fence if you want to stand any chance of beating him.
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SE is a 2 miler stepping up in trip.Whether thats the right thing to do only time will tell,but i am pretty sure his best chance of winning decent races this season,is if he either stays at 2m or Ryannair type distance.
Early days but i just dont think he will be good enough over further.He is imo much more comfortable finishing his races with his stamina less exposed,and to me looks to be struggling towards the end over further.Does not look a stayer to me.But like i say it is early days.He aint a young horse though so they need to find his distance sooner rather than later.Imo they already had!! |
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You accept he'll improve over the distance ofter putting inn a decent effort trying it for the first time at an undulating track on soft gainst Kauto Star. There is the Lexus which is far more winable if they want to go for that, then the Irish Hennessy. Then you'd think the Ryanair is the perfect race for him then. He was beaten by Golden Silver when he ran over 2m at Punchestown. Golden Silver gets hammered every time he faces Big Zeb. They are doing the right thing stepping him up in trip.
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KS an out and out stayer ? Perhaps they should go for the Grand National then.
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He was entered in the B365 chase at Sandown this year. That's over 3m5f. He also out stayed IC in the betfair chase on heavy, he powers up the hill in his second gold cup and shows the depths of his stamina to not be tired by nacarats king george pace.
In fact the 2008 gold cup is the only time he's ever been out stayed in a grade 1 and given the number of jumping mistakes he made that day he wasn't doing his lungs any favors. So 14 grade 1 chases at 3m or above has yielded only the defeat to Denman as any possible evidence of him not staying. It is preposterous that this false opinion persists about the horse. Especially given how a horses stamina increases with age. Can someone honestly tell me what he has to do before purple accept he is a starting chaser? |
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*people not purple
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Golden Silver gets hammered every time he faces Big Zeb
I'm sure he was a strongly staying on 2nd over the weekend, beaten about a length  And there was no doubt in my mind which horse would come on most for the run.I think GS has improved out of sight and could be a real force this season. |
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Golden Silver has had 7 runs in open company and won four of them, losing the other three to Big Zeb. I am certain, without even a tiny bit of doubt that Zeb is a superior horse. Zeb had it easy yesterday on Golden Silvers favored ground. Also it's clear that Golden Silver does not like Cheltenham, meaning it is as good as throwing away money backing him for the champ chase.
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Agree re Big Zeb,think he is easily the best 2 miler around now and could not see SE beating him.But he can have problems jumping so SE could take advantage of that maybe,never be afraid of one horse and all that.I think however Ryannair is probably SE best chance of a festival success.
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Zeb has got over those jumping problems, he didn't fall at all last season, he actually jumped really well. I saw all his races and he carried my money on all 4 starts last term. Serious engine and is certainly better than master minded, they faced either three times, where he fell, was about to win before a blunder and then hammered him.
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Fair enough,i am a big fan of BZ,and he could turn out to be the best we have seen for some time.Could easily see him racking up at least another 2 qm's if he stays sound.
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CVB. I am not suggest Big Zeb isnt the superior of the two.
But I think GS has improved dramatically. And I was merely disagreeing with your assertion that he has 'hammered' him every time. He didnt this weekend. And I dont think he will if they meet again soon. At least not on his preferred conditions of soft ground (and not at Cheltenham) That said, its fairly obvious GS will be better over a bit further and BZ is a real 2m specialist. |
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I agree, GS is a very good horse. He'll carry my cash on every run in ireland where he does not face Big Zeb or Captain Cee Bee. I like how there is still 4/1 about Zeb retaining his crown. He won't run again until christmas allowing a slight drift as the inferior English 2milers win some races before then. Especially if Master minded wins the tingle creek.
But as we know in chases one bad jump can cost you a race no matter how good you are, Denman, Kauto and IC all cost themselves in such a manner last season. |