Long Run price for Paddy power

if he runs he will be a lot shorter but with his trainers record of pulling fancied runners out of the race in teh past id want to wait till nrnb.

Doesn't like Cheltenham and doubt he's a good enough jumper. Very few winners of this race are rated 158. You need a horse of that ability with a mark low/middle 140s with a liking for the track. Great Endeavour for me, took the 6s with Ladbrokes last night.

Don't think you can say at this stage he doesn't like cheltenham after only one run, was probably over the top by then anyway,having been on the go for around 18 months in France, prior to running in the Feltham.

booster     28 Oct 10 13:40 
Doesn't like Cheltenham and doubt he's a good enough jumper.


Christ,horse finishes 3rd in an RSA on his only run at the course yet goes down as not liking the place !.

A cigarette paper away from 2nd as well!

if he runs wont be 5-1 thats for sure

Will be overbet this season and expensive to follow when pitched in against the best at staying trips. This is a v good opportunity for him but as someone who would have won a wedge the RSA in a double with Special Duty I would be very worried about his jumping at Cheltenham with the taps turned on at shorter trips.

Now this horse has had a sighter of the cheltenham fences/course he will be in a much better position to put in a decent round of jumping and take this prize. 5/1 is a very good price imo as none of his likely opponents are in the same class, and none of them would have come as close to winning the rsa with a clear round of jumping, let alone the mistake-strewn one this horse put in that day. I know the knockers will say his jumping wont be goo enough or that they will be going too fast over a shorter trip, but he was cantering at the distance in the rsa and they werent exactly crawling round that day.

Are you not overlooking stunt pilot jockey S Waley Cohen ??

Today we found out -

Not fit, not schooled, bad jock - Oppose

What did Nicky Henderson say about Long Run in Todays RP please?

he said because it hasn't rained they haven't done any schooling on the schooling grounds at seven barrows, he said he was fresh and needed the schooling. PP is 17th November. Is this too late ? Can he give weight, jumping skills, a lesser jockey and a beating to Great Endeavour ?

will he beat mad max around chelt.....i dont think so.

sorry who beat Mad Max GE or LR ?

lmao ... this horse of all horses hasnt been schooled ... fk me

yeah you read it as well ?

Nickie did say he has strenghened ENORMOUSLY

Looks like he need the
RUN

No I am believing a total stranger on the internet.

"Long Run has grown and strengthened enormously over the summer. He is doing fast work and on target for the paddy power gold cup a fortnight today. Yogi Breisner will be here Monday to supervise a session with Sam Waley-Cohen for Long Run over a few Poles in the indoor school before the gelding is asked to jump a fence again as he can be quite keen"

Does this smack of a prep timed to the minute ? I was gob smacked to be honest, Great Endeavour's probably had his eye in for about 4 weeks already they don't stop at Pond House ...

Harchi race is on 13th November mate so even less time!

yeah thanks was thinking 17th for some reason. At this rate Waley Cohen will be better at fences than Long Run !

Im sure the horse will be ready to run come the day, my doubt would be whether Waley Cohen is upto the job.

It would obviously be better if Geraghty was on board Long Run, but i wouldnt blame Waley Cohen completely for horses mistakes last year. Also hes not as bad a jock as some here are making out. If u think back a few years hes ridden about 3 winners over the National  course at Aintree, which i wouldnt think you could without a decent level of horsemanship skills

I admit I've made some bad comments re Waley Cohen, and I'm sorry if they've offended anyone they were only overstating in a comical way my belief that with a grand on any horse, win single only in this race you want no stone unturned.

BJG
APMcCoy
RW
PB
TJM
SWC

I'd take any of the above against the last named up that hill and when it comes to fences around chelters.

End of jockey point sorry to drag it out. This said if he proves me wrong, and he could well do, then fairplay Mr Waley Cohen

Think you're forgetting the jockey will be claiming an allowance in this h'cap,rather than riding at level weights in a grade 1 race.Big difference tbh.

Still 16lb & a beating to Great Endeavour ? He will have to be the real deal

A good horse?  Yes. 
Good enough to win the PP off top weight (Poqueling dependent)?  Possibly. 
Likely? No.
If he jumps the last upsides MAd Max and BJG, or Great Endeavour - or any other from a possible dozen would i fancy him? Absolutely not.
And because of his tendency to "hurdle" fences - no he wont be 10 lths clear by then!

Am i the only one who thinks this horse is really harshly handicaped?

Hammered by Weapons Amnesty in the RSA. Fair enough.
But to get rated 158 on beatings of absolute rubbish at Warwick and average horses at Kempton is incredible.
His French could be anything and he is an absolute terrible price for the PP. Woeful

This debate reminds me of when Denman won his first Hennessy. A lot of people was saying a second season novice couldn't win with all that weight - the rest is history.

I accept the jockey debate but at least sam waley-Cohen can dedicate his time to this horse.

Denmans ratings in his novice are way and above long runs and he demolished his RSA field imho.

Who do you fancy then DJQ for the race?

I think Great Endeavour will go off Fav imho. The value may lie in those behind him at Cheltenham. Sunnyhillboy maybe
From the NJH stable, i would rather back Mad Max than Long Run

I think GEndeavour could be thrown in off his mark though.

I take a different view. He hit several fences in the RSA but was cantering over them coming down the hill
and to my eye was outstayed. His run at Warwick shows he has plenty of speed, beating several 140 odd rated horses very easily in the end and that was over 2 miles. He also had the 148 rated Tchico Polos well cooked at two and a half at Kempton on his introduction. The distance should be absolutely ideal and as a 5 year old who may well have strengthened I think this horse must have a major chance if he puts in a clear round.

I think he may always show his best form on flat tracks and prefer a smaller field than he'll get here.

he must be badly handicapped isn't he...but i suppose that the jocks claim is bringing it down closer to where it should be...but why is he rated 6lbs higher than burton port for example??

and with the prospect of other well handicapped horses in the race....along with dodgy jock...dodgy jumper....can't have him at all.

Top weights don't usually win the Paddy Power.

Top weights don't usually win the hennessey either......Denman did twice!
Long Run IS the real deal & will look very well handicapped at the end of this season.
I believe this season to be a 'changing of the guard'......Long Run will dot up in this....win the King George & go off fav for the gold cup imo

More likely to win the King George than the Paddy Power.

harchibald Joined: 30 Sep 01
Replies: 269 30 Oct 10 20:02   


he said because it hasn't rained they haven't done any schooling on the schooling grounds at seven barrows, he said he was fresh and needed the schooling. PP is 17th November. Is this too late ? Can he give weight, jumping skills, a lesser jockey and a beating to Great Endeavour ?


Can you trust a word Nicky Henderson says... AhemBINOCULAR?

Questions questions

horses who were announced not likely to make cheltenham last year

paddydepasterer
binocular
solwhit

trust know one.

booster

More likely to beat the 190 odd rated Kauto than a field of handicappers off what in effect is a mark of 153? I'll have a pint of what you are drinking. As long as it isn't meths.

on4 chance no chance. hate this horse overhyped soft aas garbage

Given some of your hyperbolic comments you seem to be the kind of empty vessel who would be better expressing their opinions on the horse racing forum or at the kindergarten before your mum picks you up.

will dot up imo. everyone is forgetting that at cheltenham it was the end of a long season and he was and still is a really young horse.

dananderson     Joined: 14 Oct 10
Replies: 805 04 Nov 10 20:05 
on4 chance no chance. hate this horse overhyped soft aas garbage

WALOFS. Even if you only look at his RSA run alone this is clearly b0llox

Eternaloptimist, I think he's got little chance of winning the Paddy Power as he's giving a lot of weight to a real good one with Cheltenham form whereas he didn't jump well in a smaller field off a slower pace. In the King Geotge, at a track where he's won easily in impressive fashion, he'll have a better, if slim, chance, of beating Kauto Star. As far as ratings go, if he's much better than 158, as you claim and Kauto is unlikely to run to 190, as I think, then I'd give him a better chance on a course he is more suited to. Personally I think he's over rated but he may fulfill his potential if they change jockey. Dodgy jumpers don't won a lot of top class races. And I don't drink.

Fair enough. I don't agree with your analysis but at least you have argued your point cogently. By the way as Cohen is able to claim his 5 in the Paddy Power and not in grade 1's he is for this comparison effectively off 153. I know people are making a great deal of GE winning at the festival but on the face of it he beat a field of handicappers by a little over a length. Beyond that he may have had much more in the locker or not a lot, that is all down to conjecture. On the book he doesn't look the snip which some people suggest. Certainly if we are going on what people think a horse may be capable of then you presumably think the horse is capable of running to high 170's to have a sniff in the King George. I would agree with you. Even if he isn't quite as suited by the conditions of the Padder Power that is still a heck of a lot for any other horse to find on the book on that day.

My reservation about the horse is that whilst he has thus far always got to the other side he doesn't always make the most natural shape over an obstacle and he could blunder his chance away. At the price I am happy to take that chance because given his class I still think he could make a couple of minor errors and win.

That's what the sport's all about and I guess I'm wrong more often than right like most punters but he's just bound to be overbet as he's everybody's horse to follow, Henderson's stable is featured in the Post next Monday and he's got the unexposed look. He'll certainly be a good horse if he wins off this mark but I'd prefer a top jockey instead of his claimer and I believe Great Endeavour is not far (if any) behind him. If you look at the easy time he had to get him to Cheltenham in March well handicapped, it's believable that ther's more to come. Anyway, we'll know in 8 days' time.

DanAnderson - on4 chance no chance. hate this horse overhyped soft aas garbage

Thought it was you, 'dananders' - though i believe saying you 'hate' a horse sinks even you to a new low.

well not hate but ive got a feeling the horse is soft . and he definitely wont be able jump against tough seasoned handicappers  in a race like this . also he will be better on flat tracks .

also the jhockey is useless. still amuses me every time i watch it his panic in the rsa were he takes the goggles down with a silly look on his face and starts shoveling on the coal. horse should go over hurdles and get beat by big bucks every oputing imo

Burton Port looks more of a Gold Cup horse to me. Poquelin could run in the Paddy Power with Ryan Mahon taking 5 lbs. off.
Those are two horeses to follow. Give me tough nuts over flashy types any day of the week.

flat tracker - no chance

waley cohens big problem is when he sees the horse isn't going to meet the fence on the right stride, he panics, that's why for a couple times at least per race you'll see him buckaroo out of the saddle....that's the one big difference between him and a top jock...they sit tight on these occasions.

What this horse doesnt want is to be asked to jump quickly over a trip like this. Connections have blundered he should be in the Hennessy it would be the perfect race for him. He needs time to recover from mistakes and this race wont give him that.

absolutely no chance of staying the henessy trip

hardly stopped as if shot in the RSA dan, another year older. Wont run in the race, but hard to say it has "absolutely no chance" of staying .

Believe it or not hitting 3 or 4 fences can have an effect on how well a horse finishes its race over a staying trip.