2yo v's 3yo+

There's a race a week tomorrow at Newmarket over 6f where 2yos face 3yos. Always an interesting encounter.

Thanks Howellsy.

The 5f race at 7.00 in Dundalk is the race I'm really interested in. One good 2yo(Knock Stars) taking on her elders.

I see the 2yos have won 7 out of the last 8 runnings of that newmarket race. Not sure of % 2yo runners.

Would think it's harder for juveniles to compete with every extra furlong they travel, assumung reasonable class parity. I did some trends for the newmarket race 2 years ago and won on it, but last year the trends weren't so successful, although as you say the major trend of 2yos having a good record is striking.

That Newmarket race in last 10 yrs has had 88 runners, 36 2yo's and 52 elders, results split into age and sex are:-

  Male 2yo = 6/25 +  £8.25
Female 2yo = 1/11 -  £6.00
  Male 3yo+= 2/25 - £16.25
Female 3yo+= 1/27 - £22.50

Jaysus what was Pat Martin looking at, the Bosra Sham would have been the perfect race plus with a nice period since her run in Naas. Race selection is a big part of training imo.

Nmkt race (Burwell conditions for 2yo & 3yo)

82-93 run over 7f
2yo - 10 wins
3yo - 2 wins

94-09 run over 6f
2yo - 10 wins
3yo - 6 wins

3yo winners were normally mdn winners in current season who had progressed in grade but never won above D grade. All had run in B races and effectively had been dropped in grade to win this race. They had an element of consistency with placed runs and had managed 2nd at least once.

2yo winners
All had won or 2nd over 6f.
Only two had run at pattern level (both placed)

Grendel. Like your approach.

Another male 2yo (though the PL will decrease slightly)

now 7/28 (+£6.69)

My thoughts prior to race

GKN CONDITIONS STAKES
This race is another nightmare as far as stats. At the 5 day decs I was anticipating that Pabusar would be the pick but it doesn’t run.

The same rule applies to this race regarding runs over 6f.
All the 3yo winners (six) had finished first or second at the distance.
The ratio with 2yo winners (ten) is 8 from 10 with the two absentees being FTO and 2nd on only run. That was as far back as 1994 and 1995.

The 3yo winners had pretty consistent form current season.
Red Roar has the consistency but hasn’t won at 6f nor ran above class five races.

Andrew Balding has a great record at Nmkt with 3yo’s but Island Rhapsody has only had three runs (four has been minimum up to now) and had been off track since April prior to recent run over 7f. The interesting bit is that its only ran once over 6f and won. It still has to prove itself on the flat though as the win was on AW.

Morache Music seems to be an out and out 6f horse, with two wins to its credit. Since upped in grade it has achieved little at Northern tracks. Back nearer home and down in grade might see a win but again a skinny price