Horse Antepost
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With the NH season now getting into full swing I was wondering if anyone wants to share some golden rules they follows in order to hopefully make their punting pay??
Not saying we strictly adhere to the rules but we may come across some nuggets that lead to profitable betting. And remind ourselves of some fundamentals we really should not ignore!
For starters here are a few more obvious ones:
1) In novice chases think very carefully before backing the horse with the "sexy" hurdle form when it hasn't proved it's worth over fences. Look to the horse in the race with sound form over fences in the class of race.
I'd say likewise for flat horses going hurdling for the first time.
2) Be careful of betting on horses fto after a lengthy absence, except where is some sort of proof, e.g winner fto previous season or stable in flying form.
3) Don't bet on Ferdy Murphy's fto, they tend to need the run.
Not saying we strictly adhere to the rules but we may come across some nuggets that lead to profitable betting. And remind ourselves of some fundamentals we really should not ignore!
For starters here are a few more obvious ones:
1) In novice chases think very carefully before backing the horse with the "sexy" hurdle form when it hasn't proved it's worth over fences. Look to the horse in the race with sound form over fences in the class of race.
I'd say likewise for flat horses going hurdling for the first time.
2) Be careful of betting on horses fto after a lengthy absence, except where is some sort of proof, e.g winner fto previous season or stable in flying form.
3) Don't bet on Ferdy Murphy's fto, they tend to need the run.
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DONT GO ALL IN WHEN COMING OUT OF THE ARKLE BAR FECK FACED
1) don't tell anyone anything because the bookies read all the forums and any successful patterns or formulas will be blocked.
1. Don't watch or bet in any races where National Hunt is involved. Smashing.
Dont back Hendersons when VC are standout price
Dont back in Ireland when PP are standout price
Dont back in Ireland when PP are standout price
Pick your favourite 5-6 horses and stick to them for at least three runs, Ignore any/all tips. Pick your favourite horse for Chelt now; and put a few quid each week on it starting now. This way if you are lucky you have something to look forward too even if your current form is bad.
1) Don't bet on any race that has tricky obstacles between the start and the finish. Horses sometimes come a cropper and the best horse only wins occasionally.
2) Don't bet on NHF races.
2) Don't bet on NHF races.
1. dont bet on a race when the ground is a ? due to CoC's throwing water on it randomly
2. dont bet on a horse in a race where the stall position allocated means pegasus would struggle to place
sry , wrong thread
2. dont bet on a horse in a race where the stall position allocated means pegasus would struggle to place
sry , wrong thread
Philip Hide retired today so that's one rule out of the window :)
Howdi,
Cheltenham betting tales surely deserves it's own thread! And another thread for before/after tales stories too.
I'm surprised by the amount of flat only fans out there - flat or jumps - all comes the same to me. Agree with Plat flat is becoming harder work due to outside influences such as overwatering.
To keep this thread on track (hopefully) keep an eye on P Gallagher claiming 7lbs, good value for his claim.
Cheltenham betting tales surely deserves it's own thread! And another thread for before/after tales stories too.
I'm surprised by the amount of flat only fans out there - flat or jumps - all comes the same to me. Agree with Plat flat is becoming harder work due to outside influences such as overwatering.
To keep this thread on track (hopefully) keep an eye on P Gallagher claiming 7lbs, good value for his claim.
lol Rod.
Here's a rule .. never rule out a David Pipe runner in one of the valuable handicap races .. no matter how stinking stable form is.
Here's a rule .. never rule out a David Pipe runner in one of the valuable handicap races .. no matter how stinking stable form is.
Keep a note pinned on the wall for March
Do not be surprised if form during the year in small fields and a slower early pace doesn't stack up at Cheltenham
Remember that horses that start under 3-1 at the festival will return you less money than the same price and under at other meetings, favs are overbet there.
Do not be surprised if form during the year in small fields and a slower early pace doesn't stack up at Cheltenham
Remember that horses that start under 3-1 at the festival will return you less money than the same price and under at other meetings, favs are overbet there.
Zilzal,
Good point. The form at the likes of Ascot in soft/heavy ground in the winter is often turned around when conditions quicken in the spring for the Festival.
Give extra credit to horses who have ran well at Cheltenham previously (especially at the Festival).
Good point. The form at the likes of Ascot in soft/heavy ground in the winter is often turned around when conditions quicken in the spring for the Festival.
Give extra credit to horses who have ran well at Cheltenham previously (especially at the Festival).
Back Twiston-Davies at early season Cheltenham meetings. Seems to have his horses plenty forward.
be selective, avoid stable out of form, those rules apply to the flat game too tho
In every other aspect of your life, you will have some emotionally stunted, repressive little life-shrinker telling you how things are going to be for you.
Therefore, when betting, ignore every 'rule' foisted on you by an exernal body and go for each bet - be it long-term-ante post coup to life changing Goliath - with every fibre in your being.
Therefore, when betting, ignore every 'rule' foisted on you by an exernal body and go for each bet - be it long-term-ante post coup to life changing Goliath - with every fibre in your being.
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