Horse Antepost
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i know you were all over quality road for the breeders cup last year, and you know american horse racing a lot better than myself, was just wondering about your views on this years race... cheers :-)
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Well the short answer TMW is that yes, I will probably back Quality Road in this year's race. But I probably wouldn't be as content about backing him right now as I was this time last year for two reasons:
1. He was 16/1 a year ago, best price this time around is 8/1 and he's generally a 6/1 chance. Around the 8.5 mark on here.
2. It looks a stronger race this year.
Those of us who took on Zenyatta at Santa Anita said she'd never raced beyond 9f and that she was taking on the boys for the first time. But she put us in our place big time with a devasting win albeit question marks have always remained over the strength of the form.
Now the big question mark will be the dirt but dare we take her on again? I think for a filly going for 20 and 0, anything above 4/1 is very fair.
Then there's the Preakness winner, Lookin At Lucky, anlucky loser at this meeting last year. Its a big ask to go and win this in his first race against older horses but he's done all thats being required since finishing sixth in the Derby and represents looks head and shoulders above an otherwise weak enough Classic generation challenge.
I think Quality Road should turn the form around with Blame, who probably benefitted from a big error in judgement by Johnny V in the Withney and was subsequently well beaten by Haynesfield one start later. The latter named could provide a bigger threat to Quality Road although we did finish two places in front in the Whitney. But Haynesfield has since improved and Assmusen will know what it takes.
The Japanese also have one well to the fore of the betting in Espoir City and he's probably a better horse than Casino Drive who finished last two years ago. He'd have a good chance too for one who's being so dominant on this surface in their native land but if he is let take his chance, will be running off a big break.
Then there's the likes of Rail Trip, Super Saver and Richard's Kid, none of which I could make a strong case for but they look a good deal better than those who filled this section of the betting this time last year.
And last but by no means least, Rip Van Winkle, who is probably the favourite to spearhead the Ballydoyle batallion for the second year running. Aidan's got a couple to choose from in Fame And Glory, St. Nicholas' Abbey and Cape Blanco but its hard to believe that he hasn't add this on Rip Van Winkle's radar all season long. Not that I think RVW will be a major threat in the overall scheme of things but a Ballydoyle first-choice runner at anything bigger than 16/1 has to represent value.
In short, I'd expect Quality Road to go very close particularly as this race is on the dirt where he's proven unlike last year. Another negative is that he's still yet to win at the trip, something I'd like to have seen him do this season and it does look a stronger race especially with the near flawless Zenyatta sitting at the head of the betting.
1. He was 16/1 a year ago, best price this time around is 8/1 and he's generally a 6/1 chance. Around the 8.5 mark on here.
2. It looks a stronger race this year.
Those of us who took on Zenyatta at Santa Anita said she'd never raced beyond 9f and that she was taking on the boys for the first time. But she put us in our place big time with a devasting win albeit question marks have always remained over the strength of the form.
Now the big question mark will be the dirt but dare we take her on again? I think for a filly going for 20 and 0, anything above 4/1 is very fair.
Then there's the Preakness winner, Lookin At Lucky, anlucky loser at this meeting last year. Its a big ask to go and win this in his first race against older horses but he's done all thats being required since finishing sixth in the Derby and represents looks head and shoulders above an otherwise weak enough Classic generation challenge.
I think Quality Road should turn the form around with Blame, who probably benefitted from a big error in judgement by Johnny V in the Withney and was subsequently well beaten by Haynesfield one start later. The latter named could provide a bigger threat to Quality Road although we did finish two places in front in the Whitney. But Haynesfield has since improved and Assmusen will know what it takes.
The Japanese also have one well to the fore of the betting in Espoir City and he's probably a better horse than Casino Drive who finished last two years ago. He'd have a good chance too for one who's being so dominant on this surface in their native land but if he is let take his chance, will be running off a big break.
Then there's the likes of Rail Trip, Super Saver and Richard's Kid, none of which I could make a strong case for but they look a good deal better than those who filled this section of the betting this time last year.
And last but by no means least, Rip Van Winkle, who is probably the favourite to spearhead the Ballydoyle batallion for the second year running. Aidan's got a couple to choose from in Fame And Glory, St. Nicholas' Abbey and Cape Blanco but its hard to believe that he hasn't add this on Rip Van Winkle's radar all season long. Not that I think RVW will be a major threat in the overall scheme of things but a Ballydoyle first-choice runner at anything bigger than 16/1 has to represent value.
In short, I'd expect Quality Road to go very close particularly as this race is on the dirt where he's proven unlike last year. Another negative is that he's still yet to win at the trip, something I'd like to have seen him do this season and it does look a stronger race especially with the near flawless Zenyatta sitting at the head of the betting.
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