NH season - advice needed please -

Hi Manduro,

Good questions, and you've seemingly won a battle without even knowing it in focusing on certain races.  A jack of all trades is a master of none, so focusing on the likes of class 2 or above is a great start.

I feel that you wouldn't need to specialise too soon, I'd look at making notes of the better novice chasers and hurdlers through the early part of the season, and put this into practice come christmas and festival season at Cheltenham/Aintree/Punchestown, use the better races and handicaps as your base for betting through late Oct - Dec.

They are a number of nag sites where they notify you of any entries, however you've no doubt seen a thread on this section with regards to notes.  If you default your card view to notes on RacingPost, then a brief look through all the entries for each at 5 day stage will flag up any horses you have previously made a note against, 10/15 min job daily if that.

Statistics as in system?  Can't say I'm a systems man, yet there's many ways to skin a cat.

Have faith in your judgement, and learn from your own mistakes. You'll not call every race right, nor will you win month on month, yet through discipline you will make it pay.  It helps to be your own worse critic when it comes to looking back at what you did wrong when reviewing a race you've played in, but at the end of the day, it's all about CONFIDENCE.

If youve got a bit of money to throw at it then Raceform Interactive is a handy tool to help keep on top of stats and 5 day listings....i use for the jumps season and can honestly say that it saves me a fortune (saves not makes)

Manduro
Some basics apply to jumpers of all abilities.

Try to avoid backing horses that are unproven on the prevailing ground. Assuming a horse will act of good going when it has run well on soft and visa versa is generally to be avoided. On the other hand laying such horses at short odds is generally a reasonable idea as you have an edge.

One specialism worth thinking about if you have the time is analysing certain trainers and their pattern of winners. Some trainers seem to keep a decent number of their horses in form throughout the season - I suppose the obvious ones are Henderson and Nicholls. Others seem to get their horses into fantastic form for quite short periods between pretty quiet spells. Twiston D is a definite and in Ireland I suspect Mullins might be another.

You are interested in statistics. The most useful use of statistics I have ever seen is an analysis of the way particular trainers perform often season after season. Which times of year do they tend to come good and when they are quiet. Obviously Prescott has had the same pattern on the flat since the 1970's but there are some over the jumps too - see if you can find them - it is profitable.

Statistics to avoid at all costs (usually your own) are the ones that use a 10 year trend and go on about "this being a good/bad race for favourites". Such statistics are complete b0llox and a poor substitute for reading form which I guess you are quite good at.

2 mile handicap chases used to be a decent medium for specialisation, as the same horses tend to meet around the gaff tracks again and again, and you become accostomed to how each runs and what they like etc. There is an edge doing that and just about enough such races to keep the interest without being flooded with horses.

Novice hurdlers is the traditional means of making money as they certainly used to have a very high percentage of favourites winning and many races are full of pretty useless donks with little or no chance. I found that studying a reliable source of speed figures was invaluable in this, but the old Split Second (Ken Hussey) has long since retired and I don't know who the best source of speed figures is any more.

One other way of looking at jump racing is trying really hard to find the hype horses especiall novices or less exposed types, that are heralded as the new Arkle, after an impressive win against moderate opposition. They tend to get hugely underpriced and are excellent for laying or opposing, even each way at 5/1
With a horse that actually has rather better form. Some of Paul Nicholls horses can be overhyped in the media (not by the trainer).

Regards the ante post market, experience seems to suggest to me that laying sudden springers in the novice races at Cheltenham - ones on the back of one flashy run are made ashort price for the Arkle or the novice hurdles - are excellent lay material especially ones that are installed at 7/1 or less before the end of December. You do find that by the day of the race, they have either lost, and blotted their copy book, and or (usually and) at least unbeatable looking Irish contenders have forced their way to the head of the market.

Good luck whatever you choose to do. May all your lays be fallers etc. Hope some of this is of some use.

Good evening gents,

dgkelly84 & cryoftruth - Some really helpful ideas for me to digest there.

I am most grateful.

I'll give it some more thought tomorrow but you've got me thinking about a shape to the season now.I'm definitely more comfortable reading handicap form or the recognizable generation (it's all in the book !) but i would also like to build a database of the younger horses. Probably take a watching brief for the first raft of novice races ? I trust my eye in a race but i couldn't pick one in the paddock.


VFR - I'll be taking a closer look at RI over the weekend. It might be just what i need.

* by younger horses i mean novices.

dgkelly84 is confident and very shrewd imo

good post. good replies - cheers

On further reflection , the two posts above really are excellent value. Thanks again for taking the time.

dg kelly84 - ' I'd look at making notes of the better novice chasers and hurdlers through the early part of the season, and put this into practice come christmas and festival season at Cheltenham/Aintree/Punchestown, use the better races and handicaps as your base for betting through late Oct - Dec.'

I like this idea as it will not only provide some shape , but also give me time to learn about this seasons novices before getting too involved.

With regards to making notes on these horses. Would really like to find some sort of edge rather than just duplicate analysis taken from the RP for example. Not much point in writing the obvious.
But where to focus ?

Jumping ability,fluency,efficiency etc. and improvement in taking the obstacles ?

Also maybe an idea to observe these horses actions? Of course some will more suited to better ground later in the season.

I'm sure a lot will do this already though. Any thoughts there please ?


Also wondering whether to cover the irish novices or not. I don't want bite off more than i can chew however.



cryoftruth - 'You are interested in statistics. The most useful use of statistics I have ever seen is an analysis of the way particular trainers perform often season after season. Which times of year do they tend to come good and when they are quiet.'

This is obviously popular angle for statistics but it makes complete sense and i'll be using it alongside some others - jockey-trainer , trainer-course etc. I'd like to get into some more 'exotic' stats eventually but this seems a good foundation to build from.