Horse Antepost
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
I have this feeling in my d i c k that Victoire Pisa is going to surprise a few at Longchamp this weekend.
Taken the 80/1 that was available at the beginning of the week.
Anyone else had that feeling?
Taken the 80/1 that was available at the beginning of the week.
Anyone else had that feeling?
Show More
on a serious note ...i really like the horse, especially on this soft ground.
sintonian Joined: 21 Sep 04
Replies: 7864 30 Sep 10 17:09
someone's put Viagra in your team mate. Cool
Replies: 7864 30 Sep 10 17:09
someone's put Viagra in your team mate. Cool
I've considered the evidence and think you have something.
Few quid going on!
Few quid going on!
Some interesting news on the Japanese runners final preps!!
Uncertainty may surround the participation of some of the leading fancies for Sunday's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe but the Japanese quest to take home one of Europe's biggest racing prizes remains fully on course after Victoire Pisa and Nakayama Festa both completed their final workouts at Chantilly.
The Japanese rider Yutaka Take, one of the most popular sportsmen in his homeland, was on board for the gallop aboard Victoire Pisa, after which he expressed optimism about the three-year-old's chances. However it was Nakayama Festa, second to Duncan in the Prix Foy earlier this month, who performed the better of the pair in the recent trials.
"Yoshitaka Ninomiya [trainer of Nakayama Festa] sent over El Condor Pasa to finish second to Montjeu in this race 11 years ago and he says he has been waiting since for the right horse so that he can win it; it is his dream," said Shingo Soma from the Japan Racing Association.
"He says the horse has muscled up well since his prep race and he has been very pleased with his condition. He is at his peak now. Both horses have very good chances and should not be underestimated."
My money is on Nakayama Festa for the big race (EW)!!! The problem with Victoire Pisa is that all his wins have been at 10f and I don't think he stays 12f on the evidence of his last two runs at the trip!!
Good luck with the bets [;)]
Uncertainty may surround the participation of some of the leading fancies for Sunday's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe but the Japanese quest to take home one of Europe's biggest racing prizes remains fully on course after Victoire Pisa and Nakayama Festa both completed their final workouts at Chantilly.
The Japanese rider Yutaka Take, one of the most popular sportsmen in his homeland, was on board for the gallop aboard Victoire Pisa, after which he expressed optimism about the three-year-old's chances. However it was Nakayama Festa, second to Duncan in the Prix Foy earlier this month, who performed the better of the pair in the recent trials.
"Yoshitaka Ninomiya [trainer of Nakayama Festa] sent over El Condor Pasa to finish second to Montjeu in this race 11 years ago and he says he has been waiting since for the right horse so that he can win it; it is his dream," said Shingo Soma from the Japan Racing Association.
"He says the horse has muscled up well since his prep race and he has been very pleased with his condition. He is at his peak now. Both horses have very good chances and should not be underestimated."
My money is on Nakayama Festa for the big race (EW)!!! The problem with Victoire Pisa is that all his wins have been at 10f and I don't think he stays 12f on the evidence of his last two runs at the trip!!
Good luck with the bets [;)]
If you look at the finish of the prix foy,the jockey of n festa gives him a very understanding ride.
Victoire Pisa certainly was not stopping in the Japanese Derby, he won their 2000 gns over 1.2 very easily, and was entitled to need the race (first in 3 months) in the Prix Niel. Think you will see the real Victoire on sunday 
It was the perfect prep, there is a lot more to come!!! I think he will like the soft ground as well, he stayed on very well in the Japan Derby last year in soft ground (given way too much to do from the back). He seems to have matured a lot from 3 to 4, he was a bit of a bad boy and lost his way a bit last season!!!
Any horse that beats Buena Vista with a bit in hand is a quality horse in my eyes!
Any horse that beats Buena Vista with a bit in hand is a quality horse in my eyes!
Akak, maybe he is better at 10f than at 12f! I agree with you he does seem to stay 12f (should have worded it better) from what I've seen but he didn't seem to finish his race as well as he did in his 10f races!
We will soon find out!!! [:)]
We will soon find out!!! [:)]
MrDinos, Good luck with your bet. Looks like being a lovely sunny day in the Bois De Boulogne on sunday. Are you going to Longchamp by the way?
Nakayama Festa seems the more fancied but I think the 3yo Victoire Pisa offers a better chance of improving from the trial to the Arc. He traveled really nicely for a long way in the Niel. That was his first race since May and if he can come on for that run, he'll run better than his price suggests.
Winner of the Japanese 2,000 Guineas in May, Victoire Pisa followed up with a third in the Tokyo Yushun (Derby) a month later. The son of Neo Universe will be ridden by regular partner Yutaka Take this Sunday
"Victoire Pisa is a big horse, well balanced and very supple. He can be strong but is very clever," said Sumii.
"if it is soft ground it should not be a problem for him, although the tracks in Japan are usually fast, he won the Satsuki Sho when it was heavy. He is maybe even better when it is like that."
Winner of the Japanese 2,000 Guineas in May, Victoire Pisa followed up with a third in the Tokyo Yushun (Derby) a month later. The son of Neo Universe will be ridden by regular partner Yutaka Take this Sunday
"Victoire Pisa is a big horse, well balanced and very supple. He can be strong but is very clever," said Sumii.
"if it is soft ground it should not be a problem for him, although the tracks in Japan are usually fast, he won the Satsuki Sho when it was heavy. He is maybe even better when it is like that."
I'm not going to Longchamp unfortunately Akak!!! It will be a brilliant weekend of racing and I can't wait to see it on the box, have a great time to all who are going!
The Japanese runners will run very well Sunday and I'm sure they will not disgrace themselves!!! Looking forward to see where they are drawn!
The Japanese runners will run very well Sunday and I'm sure they will not disgrace themselves!!! Looking forward to see where they are drawn!
did you have the same feeling when deep impact went off at 1/10 and got cuffed.
Deep Impact didn't have the all important prep run before the Arc and was a no bet for me on the day for that reason!
Victoire Pisa drawn 5 and Nakayama Festa drawn 10, pretty happy with that! I'm sure Victoire Pisa backers will be pleased! [:)]
Fourth placed VICTOIRE PISA (39) needed the run according to his trainer. And his jockey seemed to ride him accordingly. He seemed perfectly happy to let his mount slip back to last place around the home turn - something you don't want to do at Longchamp because the finishes are invariably between those that are within a length or three turning in.
Victoire Pisa moved up threateningly just after the two furlong from home marker but then seemed to blow up and was not given a hard time in the closing stages.
It's hard to believe that Victoire Pisa won the Japanese 2000 Guineas when you look at him because he's a tall, scopey, deep chested, rangy sort that looks built for every inch of a mile and a half. In fact the Japanese 2000 Guineas is a ten furlong race and before this run Victoire Pisa had won four of the five times he'd run that distance or further - his sole loss being a good third in the Japanese Derby.
Victoire Pisa is clearly a proper Group 1 horse. And he looks sure to improve on this effort in the Arc. However I have to say his physique makes him more suited to the searching gallop that's the norm in Japanese racing rather than the sprint finishes which so often occur in France.
I see Victoire Pisa as a very interesting contender for the Japan Cup, but I suspect he'll get caught flat-footed at a vital stage in the Arc.
Victoire Pisa moved up threateningly just after the two furlong from home marker but then seemed to blow up and was not given a hard time in the closing stages.
It's hard to believe that Victoire Pisa won the Japanese 2000 Guineas when you look at him because he's a tall, scopey, deep chested, rangy sort that looks built for every inch of a mile and a half. In fact the Japanese 2000 Guineas is a ten furlong race and before this run Victoire Pisa had won four of the five times he'd run that distance or further - his sole loss being a good third in the Japanese Derby.
Victoire Pisa is clearly a proper Group 1 horse. And he looks sure to improve on this effort in the Arc. However I have to say his physique makes him more suited to the searching gallop that's the norm in Japanese racing rather than the sprint finishes which so often occur in France.
I see Victoire Pisa as a very interesting contender for the Japan Cup, but I suspect he'll get caught flat-footed at a vital stage in the Arc.
Thought he was 1m2f horse myself, trainer said he goes well fresh so don't see the blowing up excuse. Nakayama Festa will get the trip standing on his head though, will enjoy a true run race.
Great draw for Pisa....drawn 5.
Cant understand your comments of your last message
" Marching On together"
Watch this replay of his win in japan (which final stretch is shorter than Longchamp)...and then think of the Longchamp track and the final stretch...then retract the last part of your last post.
Ok...Okay !
No offence but you are talking out of your a r s e !
Cant understand your comments of your last message
" Marching On together"
Watch this replay of his win in japan (which final stretch is shorter than Longchamp)...and then think of the Longchamp track and the final stretch...then retract the last part of your last post.
Ok...Okay !
No offence but you are talking out of your a r s e !
It's Nick Mordin who wrote that mate, he does do that a lot [:x]
Agree VP has a very nice turn of foot, he obviously didn't watch the Niel properly. The way it flattened out though screamed non stayer to me, good luck though
Agree VP has a very nice turn of foot, he obviously didn't watch the Niel properly. The way it flattened out though screamed non stayer to me, good luck though
Have to say I like Victoire Pisa but not quite convinced he can win the Arc.
Watched three of his races, Japanese Guineas, Japanese Derby and Prix Niel.
And the conclusion was that he'll probably get outstayed by a couple in the Arc. I wouldn't necessarily call him a non-stayer but he just won't get the trip as well as others and I think the Japanese Derby proves this. Two horses whom he beat up in their Guineas, Eishin Flash and Rose Kingdom finished ahead of him in the Derby.
He ran a very eye-catching race for 2100m in the Niel and then as ben10 says, he flattened out, once again raising stamina concerns. The race for this one could be the HK Cup in December and not the Japan Cup as Nick Mordin points out.
Watched three of his races, Japanese Guineas, Japanese Derby and Prix Niel.
And the conclusion was that he'll probably get outstayed by a couple in the Arc. I wouldn't necessarily call him a non-stayer but he just won't get the trip as well as others and I think the Japanese Derby proves this. Two horses whom he beat up in their Guineas, Eishin Flash and Rose Kingdom finished ahead of him in the Derby.
He ran a very eye-catching race for 2100m in the Niel and then as ben10 says, he flattened out, once again raising stamina concerns. The race for this one could be the HK Cup in December and not the Japan Cup as Nick Mordin points out.
As for the other Japanese raider, Nakayama Festa.....well the first thing I like to see from these foreign raiders, and I suppose in particular Japanese raiders where local racing is very competitive, is Classic form and even more importantly Classic wins. And this one's reads eighth (Guineas), fourth (Derby) and fifteenth (Leger). So from that point of view, I see a big negative.
Now it could just be, that he's a late developer and only coming into his own as a 4yo. After all he did beat a few good horses in the Takaruzuka Kinen and then was a nice second in the Foy (hardly a strong renewal though). But can he really have improved that much from his Classic days. My feeling is that if a Japanese runner is ever going to win the Arc, then they will have to be a complete superstar winning all before them at home.
Now it could just be, that he's a late developer and only coming into his own as a 4yo. After all he did beat a few good horses in the Takaruzuka Kinen and then was a nice second in the Foy (hardly a strong renewal though). But can he really have improved that much from his Classic days. My feeling is that if a Japanese runner is ever going to win the Arc, then they will have to be a complete superstar winning all before them at home.
on the bare look of all of victoire's runs i can see why you came to the formbook conclusion.
However, im not a form book mug and i believe that the horse's long term goal was always to come over to Longchamp's right handed track.
If you just look at how the jockey placed the horse in the back stretch in the Niel then keeping hold of the horses head the 80% of the home stretch says to me that we havn't seen anywhere near of its true class.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWC65nINBPE&p=27E26BAF8042BEB0&playnext=1&index=33
However, im not a form book mug and i believe that the horse's long term goal was always to come over to Longchamp's right handed track.
If you just look at how the jockey placed the horse in the back stretch in the Niel then keeping hold of the horses head the 80% of the home stretch says to me that we havn't seen anywhere near of its true class.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWC65nINBPE&p=27E26BAF8042BEB0&playnext=1&index=33
RozelKid,
Whats your take on the Japanese Derby? Had he won that and then ran in the Niel just as he did, I'd probably be all over him.
I like backing the foreign raiders in these type of Group Ones as more often than not, they are overpriced and even at 54/1 on here now, Victoire Pisa is probably too big. But the fact that he could only finish third in the Derby suggests that there are two horses more suited to the Arc back in Japan.
True, he might have been trained for the Arc but thats only since the Derby. As I say, that run is what creates the negative for me.
Saying all that I'd like to see him win and I might put a few loyalty euros on Take/Sumii because I'd love to see them get the Arc winner some day.
Whats your take on the Japanese Derby? Had he won that and then ran in the Niel just as he did, I'd probably be all over him.
I like backing the foreign raiders in these type of Group Ones as more often than not, they are overpriced and even at 54/1 on here now, Victoire Pisa is probably too big. But the fact that he could only finish third in the Derby suggests that there are two horses more suited to the Arc back in Japan.
True, he might have been trained for the Arc but thats only since the Derby. As I say, that run is what creates the negative for me.
Saying all that I'd like to see him win and I might put a few loyalty euros on Take/Sumii because I'd love to see them get the Arc winner some day.
To be honest i think the jockey gave the horse a pig of a ride in the Japanese Derby. if you see he is all over the place within the last 2 furlongs.
The jockey was pushing and pushing within the last furlong as wasn't really getting a response...you can see that the horse had petrol in the tank but there was a blockage in the carburetor so to speak.
I'm not completely sure what the ground was that day , its description on racing post is Firm ...if that's the case i don't think it wants firm, i actually believe that it cant perform to its class on it.
Just looking at its knee action says it all for me.
Whats giving me that edge at the moment i think with regards to Victoire Pisa are the following:
Going: Jockey Yutaka Take has reported that the horse won't be seen to his best until he encounters very soft Ground.
Value: my 80/1 ...say no more.
Track: i believe that going Right handed suits the horse far better.
Draw: Drawn 5....One of the best draws
Jockey: Im glad that Yutaka Take had that ride in the arc a couple of years ago aboard the 1/10 shot Deep Impact...i'm sure he will be the wiser for it around Longchamp after that experience.
To be honest im surprised he is still alive from the triads, lol
Anyway ,fingers are crossed, i can only hope that he bursts to the front 1/2 a furlong out and repels all the challenges.
Good luck everyone
The jockey was pushing and pushing within the last furlong as wasn't really getting a response...you can see that the horse had petrol in the tank but there was a blockage in the carburetor so to speak.
I'm not completely sure what the ground was that day , its description on racing post is Firm ...if that's the case i don't think it wants firm, i actually believe that it cant perform to its class on it.
Just looking at its knee action says it all for me.
Whats giving me that edge at the moment i think with regards to Victoire Pisa are the following:
Going: Jockey Yutaka Take has reported that the horse won't be seen to his best until he encounters very soft Ground.
Value: my 80/1 ...say no more.
Track: i believe that going Right handed suits the horse far better.
Draw: Drawn 5....One of the best draws
Jockey: Im glad that Yutaka Take had that ride in the arc a couple of years ago aboard the 1/10 shot Deep Impact...i'm sure he will be the wiser for it around Longchamp after that experience.
To be honest im surprised he is still alive from the triads, lol
Anyway ,fingers are crossed, i can only hope that he bursts to the front 1/2 a furlong out and repels all the challenges.
Good luck everyone
The comments regards the ground are a big positive. As reported, the ground will probably be very soft so those that are able to quicken out of it will fight out the finish.
As for Yataka, I doubt he has learned. The guy is a class act and if he thinks its got a chance, then he'll be trying to sit and wait as long as he can, see Vodka in Nad Al Sheba last year for further evidence of this. Might not be a bad back-to-lay in such a scenario. I do think the horse will be there looming large with 2f to go but after that, his fate is in the hands of far greater powers.
Best of luck.
As for Yataka, I doubt he has learned. The guy is a class act and if he thinks its got a chance, then he'll be trying to sit and wait as long as he can, see Vodka in Nad Al Sheba last year for further evidence of this. Might not be a bad back-to-lay in such a scenario. I do think the horse will be there looming large with 2f to go but after that, his fate is in the hands of far greater powers.
Best of luck.
Back
Your
Odds
Your
Stake
Your
Profit
Nakayama Festa 48.92 £650.00 £31,150.00
Your
Odds
Your
Stake
Your
Profit
Nakayama Festa 48.92 £650.00 £31,150.00
Angela, very unlucky. What a lovely pay out that would have been.
Dare I ask why you put such a large bet on the horse--since it drifted from 25 to almost 50 just before the off?
Dare I ask why you put such a large bet on the horse--since it drifted from 25 to almost 50 just before the off?
great effort. We've got no real idea how good the Japanese horse are compared to ours bu they've had some good runs now in the Arc.
Had to attack when the horse hit 50s, the best bit of value I've seen for some time. If Moore was on board it would have been the perfect payday. Pretty depressed about it now still
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539