Youmzain 20/1 !

Missing a 0

Should be 12/1 tops !

With a record of 1 win in the last 20 races spanning 4 years how on earth can that horse be overpriced to win the race at 20/1 ?.

No doubt he'll be 50/1 on here in the win market on the day,and quite rightly so.

Don't think he regards winning races as any fun at all.

People can bet each way you know. Finished second twice to good horses in the Arc and finished ahead of Workforce LTO. I think 12s would be fair. I'd like to see you lay 50.

Last 4 horses to finish ahead of him at Longchamp...Sea the Stars, Zarkava, Dylan Thomas and Rail Link.

Horses to finish behind him :-

Cavalryman
conduit
dar ri me
fame & glory

Soldier of Fortune
vision d'etat
Duke Of Marmalade

Soldie of Fortune(again)
Zambizi Sun
Authorized





Yet he should be a lot more than 20s despite him being prepped for this and the e/w possibilities ?

12/1 on the day to place might be a consideration.

12/1 to win now, or essentially evens to place is throwing away money.

As he isn't 12/1 anywhere and you can get 20/1 that makes him a 5/2 shot to place, with the very unlikely upside of getting 13/1 if he wins.

Good luck if you back/have backed him, I couldn't.

I took 40s. It would be incredible if he won. Aside from that i have Behkabad and Plantuer doubled up with an American race. I'm not totally convinced by either of those two though.

I won't lie, I'd be sick if he won!
I've 5 backed in the race (all French, 2 I've written off), I'm considering adding Fame and Glory but 4/1 just isn't tempting enough.

Workforce and Cape Blanco are the only other 2 that I think can possibly win but I think I'd rather place lay them both if they show up.

You'd realistically want to hear noises being made before backing Workforce. I think F&G is 5s. The Arc is less than 3 weeks away so i'd like to hear people come out and talk a bit more.

I wouldn't worry Tavaris,he isn't going to win is he (hence the apparently over generous prices on offer).

I feel this horse has a easier task than last year.. he still retains a lot of ability and sees to come to form at this tie of the year... I think its becoe a trend to knock this horse but how any can boast the form he has in the arc... I hope he prove doubters wrong!

I have backed him @ 25s ... will continue to back him until the day...!

IrisDeBalme     15 Sep 10 20:12 
I feel this horse has a easier task than last year.. he still retains a lot of ability and sees to come to form at this tie of the year... I think its becoe a trend to knock this horse but how any can boast the form he has in the arc... I hope he prove doubters wrong!

I have backed him @ 25s ... will continue to back him until the day...!


I'd be pretty sure any of us 'doubters' aren't kicking themselves for not backing a horse who hasn't won for over two years and only once in four years.

No one is doubting his overall ability to produce a high level of form over many seasons.What i do doubt is his ability to actually win the race,seeing as his overall record suggests that he just doesn't win races.

So if you back him e.w you are basically almost throwing away the win part of the bet - which makes the apparently wonderful looking price of 20/1 not particularly great imo as you are basically getting 2/1 for him to place in his usual position (i.e 2nd or 3rd).

Can't say that looks like value to me.

The win part of the bet is wasted on every single horse bar the winner. Youmzain doesn't lack bottle. He hasn't been eyeballed and dropped out. He has given chase to two previous equine superstars. If he reproduces a run similar to last season he will give you doubter a right spooky moment.

I should also state i'd like to see Fallon on board !

Top div...

I do see your point ... but he has got the best record in the arc... yes he has not won it... but he was close to such Superstar horses like Sea the Stars and Zarkava, how many horses can boast that form...?

I think he is better value than O'Briens horses as he previously beat Soldier of Fortune and Duke Of Marm and Fame and Glory, I dont think O'Brien has anything lining up that could be better than what he has already beaten

He has beat Dar Re Mi... so think he will be ahead there...

Of the French horses... I think the top two Bekhabad and Planteur are very closely matched which suggests these two are 2 very good horses but may not be in the same class as Sea the Stars and Zarkava... so dont feel these are certs for the race as everyone makes out...

I dont think Workforce will turn up and I cant see anything else challenging him of the others...

On that basis I think he should be a lot shorter, and because he has not won the race before does not mean he cannot win it again...

My only concern is his age, but he has had less runs this season and is aimed at the big one... Im willing to back him as there is no wonder horse in the field.... I think he deserves one last chance.

(I hope Richard Hughes rides him... he has been timing his runs to perfection on horses this season... will be ideal for Youmzain)

YOUMZAIN

Iris - As mentioned,i don't doubt his ability and some of his placed form is fantastic on the figures but the point Graeme seems to miss is that the horse usually (19 times out of the last 20) finishes anywhere but first,regardless of the opposition.

He's been 2nd in the very strongest group 1 races over the past few years......and then managed to only place in far weaker events.

I honestly can't see how anyone can argue that he just doesn't seem to want to win races and will usually contrive to finish fast and late,looking unlucky (or hit the front and get mugged late on).

If he was just an ordinary h'capper and not a group 1 horse running in group 1 races,he'd most definitely be labelled as 'dodgy' and one to avoid (or a 'placepot' horse).

Anyway i haven't had a bet in the race so far so good luck to you,i'm sure he'll run well (and i'll happily apologise to you and the horse should he change his habits and actually win!).

He hasn't run 20 times at Longchamp !

"I'm surprised they are making such a big do out of Behkabad. It certainly wasn't impressive. I'd be surprised if he was to beat Youmzain, and I'd hope we'd be able to beat Duncan (winner of the Prix Foy)." - Jaber Abdullah

Graeme83     16 Sep 10 15:25 
The win part of the bet is wasted on every single horse bar the winner. Youmzain doesn't lack bottle. He hasn't been eyeballed and dropped out. He has given chase to two previous equine superstars. If he reproduces a run similar to last season he will give you doubter a right spooky moment.

The flat racing scene is in a sad state if Youmzain wins the Arc!