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Horse Antepost
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Racecaller trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 1-3-16
4yo: 2-8-36
5yo: 3-3-15
6yo+: 4-5-19
Horses aged 3 or 4 have combined record: 3-11-52
Horses aged 5+ have combined record: 7-8-34
Clearly this is a race to focus on older horses, seeing that those aged 5 or above have won 7 of the last 10 runnings from just under 40% of the total runners.
The only 3yo to win the race since 1990 was the great Vinnie Roe, who went on to win it 3 more times.
Gender
Fillies/mares (1-1-9) have gained 1 win and 1 place from 9 runners, which is about right considering they represented approximately 10.5% of the total runners.
Breeding
8 of 10 winners sired by a horse with a stamina index of 10.6F to 11.3F (1 of 2 exceptions was out of a mare who had won a group 3 over 1M 5F)
The last 3 winners were by Sadler’s Wells or a son of Sadler’s Wells
The last 2 winners were out of a Darshaan mare
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions were 2nd on last start)
8 of 10 winners had previously won at the Curragh (2 exceptions were having their first run here)
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 6F or further
8 of 10 winners had won a group race (both exceptions were dual-listed winners who'd finished in first 3 in a group race)
6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 in a group 1 (2 of 4 exceptions were having first run in a group 1, other 2 had finished 4th & 6th in a group 1)
Other Races
Ballyroan Stakes winner (Profound Beauty): 5111344 (3-1-7)
Vintage Crop Stakes winner (Roses For The Lady): 111 (3-0-3)
Saval Beg winner (Profound Beauty): 8131 (2-1-4)
Ballycullen Stakes winner (Rajik): 71251 (2-1-5)
Curragh Cup winner (Tactic): 66114 (2-0-5)
Ascot Gold Cup winner (Rite Of Passage): 218 (1-1-3)
Challenge Stakes winner (Profound Beauty): 1764 (1-0-4)
Lonsdale Cup winner (Opinion Poll): 443 (0-1-3)
Princess Of Wales' Stakes winner (Sans Frontieres): 555 (0-0-3)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Ballyroan Stakes last time, finishing 1121
2 of 10 winners ran in the Ballycullen Stakes last time, finishing 11
4 of 10 winners ran in the Saval Beg, finishing 1212
3 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Gold Cup, finishing 721
3 of 10 winners ran in the Curragh Cup, finishing 112
3 of 10 winners ran in the Vintage Crop Stakes, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners ran in the Challenge Stakes, finishing 15
3 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's Prix Royal Oak, finishing 614
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Lonsdale Cup, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Melbourne Cup, finishing 47
Trainers
Irish-trained runners: 8-9-53
British-trained runners: 2-10-33
All 4 of Dermot Weld’s (4-1-8) wins came from Vinnie Roe winning this race 4 times in a row between 2001 and 2004.
Aidan O’Brien (2-5-16) and John Oxx (2-1-8) have each won 2 of the last 4 renewals of this race.
Saeed Bin Suroor (0-3-3) has seen all 3 of his runners in the race in the past 10 years make the frame.
Price
9 of 10 winners came from first 3 in the betting
The highest priced winner in the last 10 years has been 10/1, not a race to be looking for a big outsider.
Favourites (4-5-12) have won 4 of the last 10 but have shown a level stakes loss of 3.28.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 5 or older
• Sired by a horse with a stamina index of 10.6F to 11.3F
• Won last time out (no worse than 2nd)
• Course winner
• Won over 1M 6F or further
• Won a group race
• Finished in first 2 in the Ballyroan or Ballycullen Stakes last time
• Winner of the Saval Beg, Vintage Crop and/or Curragh Cup
• Trained by O’Brien, Oxx, Weld or Bin Suroor
• From the first 3 in the betting
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 1-3-16
4yo: 2-8-36
5yo: 3-3-15
6yo+: 4-5-19
Horses aged 3 or 4 have combined record: 3-11-52
Horses aged 5+ have combined record: 7-8-34
Clearly this is a race to focus on older horses, seeing that those aged 5 or above have won 7 of the last 10 runnings from just under 40% of the total runners.
The only 3yo to win the race since 1990 was the great Vinnie Roe, who went on to win it 3 more times.
Gender
Fillies/mares (1-1-9) have gained 1 win and 1 place from 9 runners, which is about right considering they represented approximately 10.5% of the total runners.
Breeding
8 of 10 winners sired by a horse with a stamina index of 10.6F to 11.3F (1 of 2 exceptions was out of a mare who had won a group 3 over 1M 5F)
The last 3 winners were by Sadler’s Wells or a son of Sadler’s Wells
The last 2 winners were out of a Darshaan mare
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions were 2nd on last start)
8 of 10 winners had previously won at the Curragh (2 exceptions were having their first run here)
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 6F or further
8 of 10 winners had won a group race (both exceptions were dual-listed winners who'd finished in first 3 in a group race)
6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 in a group 1 (2 of 4 exceptions were having first run in a group 1, other 2 had finished 4th & 6th in a group 1)
Other Races
Ballyroan Stakes winner (Profound Beauty): 5111344 (3-1-7)
Vintage Crop Stakes winner (Roses For The Lady): 111 (3-0-3)
Saval Beg winner (Profound Beauty): 8131 (2-1-4)
Ballycullen Stakes winner (Rajik): 71251 (2-1-5)
Curragh Cup winner (Tactic): 66114 (2-0-5)
Ascot Gold Cup winner (Rite Of Passage): 218 (1-1-3)
Challenge Stakes winner (Profound Beauty): 1764 (1-0-4)
Lonsdale Cup winner (Opinion Poll): 443 (0-1-3)
Princess Of Wales' Stakes winner (Sans Frontieres): 555 (0-0-3)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Ballyroan Stakes last time, finishing 1121
2 of 10 winners ran in the Ballycullen Stakes last time, finishing 11
4 of 10 winners ran in the Saval Beg, finishing 1212
3 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Gold Cup, finishing 721
3 of 10 winners ran in the Curragh Cup, finishing 112
3 of 10 winners ran in the Vintage Crop Stakes, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners ran in the Challenge Stakes, finishing 15
3 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's Prix Royal Oak, finishing 614
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Lonsdale Cup, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Melbourne Cup, finishing 47
Trainers
Irish-trained runners: 8-9-53
British-trained runners: 2-10-33
All 4 of Dermot Weld’s (4-1-8) wins came from Vinnie Roe winning this race 4 times in a row between 2001 and 2004.
Aidan O’Brien (2-5-16) and John Oxx (2-1-8) have each won 2 of the last 4 renewals of this race.
Saeed Bin Suroor (0-3-3) has seen all 3 of his runners in the race in the past 10 years make the frame.
Price
9 of 10 winners came from first 3 in the betting
The highest priced winner in the last 10 years has been 10/1, not a race to be looking for a big outsider.
Favourites (4-5-12) have won 4 of the last 10 but have shown a level stakes loss of 3.28.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 5 or older
• Sired by a horse with a stamina index of 10.6F to 11.3F
• Won last time out (no worse than 2nd)
• Course winner
• Won over 1M 6F or further
• Won a group race
• Finished in first 2 in the Ballyroan or Ballycullen Stakes last time
• Winner of the Saval Beg, Vintage Crop and/or Curragh Cup
• Trained by O’Brien, Oxx, Weld or Bin Suroor
• From the first 3 in the betting
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Replies: 17
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Rajik won the same race over CD that Alandi won before winning this last year. If Swan gets McDonogh to ride then I think he'd be a good ew bet
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McDonagh has been booked for the ride. It was announced on RTE radio at lunchtime.
Profound Beauty looks a snip to me now that the going has eased. CD form. Weld a master trainer of stayers and uses this as a WINNING prep for his Melbourne Cup campaigners. |
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Profound Beauty surely wants it on the quick side?
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Trends irrelevant, Sans Frontieres is already far too good for these with the promise of more to come
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With respect I cant think of a better race to ignore trends on. I especially love the "from the first 3 in the betting" nonsense.
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What an absolute load of balderdash.
- Profound Beauty is better with cut. - Noseda's horse looks a lively contender, but trends are not irrelevant. - Go and have a look and see how many races 9 years in 10 one of the front 3 favs won. You may be surprised. |
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Explain profound beauty's performance in this last year on soft & her trainers comments today then
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PB must be a doubtful runner if this monsoon continues. It's throwing it down, must be yielding at best and more likely yielding to soft on the round tomorrow.
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PB Yielding or better lifetime 42132115(Melb Cup)1111211 (9/15
PB Y/S or worse 5334 (0/4) |
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Teddy I didn't hear the comments today, but i wouldn't say balderdash!
1) Last year the ground was nearly unraceable. Mick Kinane on Alandi the winner was knackered. 2) After his runner up performance in the ATR race it was stated that he came to win the race against Tactic but wouldn't let himself down on the fast ground up the straight. 3) Good to Yielding would be perfect for her. 1 6 on soft ground could be too far for her. |
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think carvills summed it up well any more rain and her chance gets smaller, at 9/4 its not a risk id take.she also will more than likely need to run a lifetime best RPR on non ideal ground
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Was there any excuse given for Kite Wood's last run?
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Sorry, I see he lost his action.
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Don't know how, but I confused her with Famous Name.
Must have had one too many ciders.  |
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Racecaller some excellent analysis there my friend and all on here should thank you for posting it up.
Your stats there make it clear how tough it will be for an inexperienced 3YO but he's done superbly well in his short career to date and he'll come here with every chance. I wouldn't need to go on and on on here about his breeding - but by Sadlers Wells out of the dual Oaks winner Ramruma he really is a beautifully bred colt and a fine looking fellow he is too if you can get a chance to look at him in the parade ring today. He's a star of the future for sure but Flying Cross has got more than enough ability to take this today  |
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Profound Beauty looks one that doesn't want extremes of ground to me. She's unbeaten when yielding has been in the description.
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Howdy Prosp- looking forward to the Kerry National!
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