Horse Antepost
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This looks a really interesting race and could be the mile race of the season in terms of working out who is truely the best filly at the distance aside from the great Goldikova. Here are the likely runners with their current Racing Post Ratings:-
Music Show 135
Lillie Langtry 132
Gile Na Greine 129
Rainfall 129 (looks more likely to run at Haydock on Sat)
Strawberrydaiquiri 128
Spacious 127
Jacqueline Quest 127
Bethrah 126
Long Lashes 122
Pyrrha 122
Devoted To You 120
Hen Night 116
Alsalwa 102
Here are my thoughts on a few of the runners:-
Music Show- I am a bit biased in as far as she is my favourite horse in training right now but after a luckless draw in a shocking 1000 Guineas she ran with credit and a fair amount of bad luck in both the Irish 1000 Guineas and the Coranation stakes before showing her true ability when winning the Falmouth and beating the best field of 3yo mile fillies this season inculding Special Duty and Lillie Langtry as well as the 4 year olds Spacious and Strawberrydaiquiri. She has since ran a creditable second to Goldikova in France and has been ultra consistant the whole season. There are some nagging doubts for me in as far as she hasn't won when she has travelled yet, I know the France run was good but she still didnt show her best form in Ireland last time and ran a shocker at Ayr as a 2 year old without there appearing to be reason. Also the Jockey that has got the best from her Richard Hughes is sure to be engaged at Haydock on Saturday and so another change of Jockey looks likely. Ryan Moore hasn't got the best from her IMO and the trainer/owner looks unlikely to turn to Fallon again after he chose to ride Seta in the English 1000. Also this will be her 7th race of the season and sooner or later the number of hard races she has had will catch up with her. If she runs to her best form she should be right up there and she could be reasonable value because the money is likely to be for a couple of the Irish trained 3 year olds.
Lillie Langtry- Ran a blinder to be so close in the Irish 1000 in her first race of the season and improved on that to win the coronation next time when beating Music Show. However she was 5th in the Falmouth where Music Show beat her easily. It's possible she was over the top after 2 races close together but it seems unlikely that all the others around her like Gile Na Greine/Special Duty ran/Rainfall all ran below par to explain her position. She had a decent break and O'Brien will no doubt have her back to her best. If I'm honest I think Music Show deserves to be rated a little higher than her and if they both run to their best Music Show would beat Lillie Langtry.
Bethrah- She has only raced 4 times and couldn't have done better as a 3yo being unbeaten in 3 starts. She last ran and won in the Irish 1000 beating a very strong field fair and square, however she did get a good run of the race and it is possible the result may have flattered her a little. That said she is the horse most open to improvement in the race and has clearly been laid out for this race. She could well improve to end up being the top rated 3yo filly of the season.
Jaquelines Quest- I think she was flattered by the draw bias at Newmarket and although she ran a solid race in the coronation and is a good horse I dont think she is good enough to be winning a race like this. I doubt she will place in this race.
Gile Na Greine- Another that has had a hard season and this will be her 7th race of the season. Also another that was flattered by the draw bias at Newmarket. She has not shown enough in her last 2 runs to be considered as a winner for this. If she runs to her best form she could place though improvement to win the race seems unlikely.
Strawberrydaiquiri- She looks to be the better of the older horses. She beat Spacious in a very close race at Ascot before getting checked and being given no chance of placing in the Falmouth. She wouldn't have won but would have been closer. She has also since run a decent race behind Midday at Goodwood over 10f. There is very little between her and Spacious but they are probably running for place money.
In summary I would want to know for sure who was on Music Show but if by some miracle Hughes is up or Channon goes back to Fallon they would both be positives for me. She may well be value because there is a chance the likes of Bethrah and Lillie Langtry will be heavily backed. I think Lillie Langtry will be favourie when the prices are up and Bethrah may be storng in the betting through the day. If you can get 5/1 ish (could be quite possible) or better ew on Music Show you are getting a free bet IMO or backing her in the place market on here should give you a return. I may be inclined to have a small win bet on Bethrah early in the morning and lump on Music Show in the place market just before the off if I'm right in the way I expect the betting to go.
WHat are your thoughts?
PS keep an eye on Fork Handles in the 4.45 at Haydock on Saturday. She has been crying out for further and could be great ew value in this race at a fairly big price.
What are your thoughts?
Music Show 135
Lillie Langtry 132
Gile Na Greine 129
Rainfall 129 (looks more likely to run at Haydock on Sat)
Strawberrydaiquiri 128
Spacious 127
Jacqueline Quest 127
Bethrah 126
Long Lashes 122
Pyrrha 122
Devoted To You 120
Hen Night 116
Alsalwa 102
Here are my thoughts on a few of the runners:-
Music Show- I am a bit biased in as far as she is my favourite horse in training right now but after a luckless draw in a shocking 1000 Guineas she ran with credit and a fair amount of bad luck in both the Irish 1000 Guineas and the Coranation stakes before showing her true ability when winning the Falmouth and beating the best field of 3yo mile fillies this season inculding Special Duty and Lillie Langtry as well as the 4 year olds Spacious and Strawberrydaiquiri. She has since ran a creditable second to Goldikova in France and has been ultra consistant the whole season. There are some nagging doubts for me in as far as she hasn't won when she has travelled yet, I know the France run was good but she still didnt show her best form in Ireland last time and ran a shocker at Ayr as a 2 year old without there appearing to be reason. Also the Jockey that has got the best from her Richard Hughes is sure to be engaged at Haydock on Saturday and so another change of Jockey looks likely. Ryan Moore hasn't got the best from her IMO and the trainer/owner looks unlikely to turn to Fallon again after he chose to ride Seta in the English 1000. Also this will be her 7th race of the season and sooner or later the number of hard races she has had will catch up with her. If she runs to her best form she should be right up there and she could be reasonable value because the money is likely to be for a couple of the Irish trained 3 year olds.
Lillie Langtry- Ran a blinder to be so close in the Irish 1000 in her first race of the season and improved on that to win the coronation next time when beating Music Show. However she was 5th in the Falmouth where Music Show beat her easily. It's possible she was over the top after 2 races close together but it seems unlikely that all the others around her like Gile Na Greine/Special Duty ran/Rainfall all ran below par to explain her position. She had a decent break and O'Brien will no doubt have her back to her best. If I'm honest I think Music Show deserves to be rated a little higher than her and if they both run to their best Music Show would beat Lillie Langtry.
Bethrah- She has only raced 4 times and couldn't have done better as a 3yo being unbeaten in 3 starts. She last ran and won in the Irish 1000 beating a very strong field fair and square, however she did get a good run of the race and it is possible the result may have flattered her a little. That said she is the horse most open to improvement in the race and has clearly been laid out for this race. She could well improve to end up being the top rated 3yo filly of the season.
Jaquelines Quest- I think she was flattered by the draw bias at Newmarket and although she ran a solid race in the coronation and is a good horse I dont think she is good enough to be winning a race like this. I doubt she will place in this race.
Gile Na Greine- Another that has had a hard season and this will be her 7th race of the season. Also another that was flattered by the draw bias at Newmarket. She has not shown enough in her last 2 runs to be considered as a winner for this. If she runs to her best form she could place though improvement to win the race seems unlikely.
Strawberrydaiquiri- She looks to be the better of the older horses. She beat Spacious in a very close race at Ascot before getting checked and being given no chance of placing in the Falmouth. She wouldn't have won but would have been closer. She has also since run a decent race behind Midday at Goodwood over 10f. There is very little between her and Spacious but they are probably running for place money.
In summary I would want to know for sure who was on Music Show but if by some miracle Hughes is up or Channon goes back to Fallon they would both be positives for me. She may well be value because there is a chance the likes of Bethrah and Lillie Langtry will be heavily backed. I think Lillie Langtry will be favourie when the prices are up and Bethrah may be storng in the betting through the day. If you can get 5/1 ish (could be quite possible) or better ew on Music Show you are getting a free bet IMO or backing her in the place market on here should give you a return. I may be inclined to have a small win bet on Bethrah early in the morning and lump on Music Show in the place market just before the off if I'm right in the way I expect the betting to go.
WHat are your thoughts?
PS keep an eye on Fork Handles in the 4.45 at Haydock on Saturday. She has been crying out for further and could be great ew value in this race at a fairly big price.
What are your thoughts?
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Replies: 40
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Lol bit of a stutter at the end!
What are your thoughts? |
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Bethrah at 6/1 e/w is the most interesting for me.
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Excellent analysis cruise.
Lilly Langtry for me  |
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Music Show, early thoughts.
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The decs are in now and pretty much everything that made the race look so good are still there. Here are the runners and their current odds (I haven't fully shopped around but have just looked at the RP comparison section):-
Music Show 2/1 Lillie Langtry 3/1 Bethrah 5/1 Spacious 6/1 Jacqueline Quest 10/1 Gile Na Greine 20/1 Hen Night 20/1 The 7 runners is a real shame for the place market to be honest and Strawberrydaiquiri not being in the race had affected the odds somewhat (she'd have been around the same as Spacious). I still think Lillie Langtry will start favourite and Bethrah will get backed so I wouldn't be backing Music Show right now. I'm sure 7/2 ish or more will be available at some point. The smaller field does mean that there is less chance of bad luck for Music Show which she has found planty of this season. |
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Cruise, I would have my doubts about Bethrah. After her guineas victory Weld said the Coronation would be most likely her next race subject to approval from Hamdan.
They found an excuse not to turn up there. It would have been an ideal race being her last chance to take on her own age group. I reckon she had a slight hold up rather than being trained specifically for this race. Bear that in mind if putting the money down. I can't give an opinion on the others as I have yet to take a look at the race. |
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Cheers soapp. To be honest now the place market has gone if I have bet in the race it will be win only and on Music Show I'd have thought (she's won me well over £3k this year).
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Ah you are a lot better than me getting that type of readies. €30 would be a max bet for me and it would have to be a short price as it is only a hobby for me.
Music Show was drawn on the wrong side when she ran at the Curragh. She certainly has the best form going into the race. 2/1 is a very fair price. Hopefully Fallon can be persuaded to take the ride. I seen him at Goodwood last saturday. He was a joy to watch on the Drunken Sailor and the earlier winner. He knows Leopardstown like the back of his hand and is available to ride it.  |
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Weld's filly e/w for me.
Fran Berry on Music show? No thanks. |
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you said it down was not happy when i read that, walked the course and the ground is on the firm side of good imo, must be watering every day juts to keep it at that
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It is not easy to over estimate Henry Cecil's capacity to get a filly to improve and whilst I agree she was favoured by the draw bias at HQ, and she seemed to have some limitations exposed since, it is foolish to rule her out of this race. She is not that far behind the best of these and she is a Henry Cecil trained filly, and he does seem to have got the hang of it.
10/1 is a fair price. |
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I agree you cant write off Cecil's runners but 10/1 to be honest seems skinny to me, she has no better form than Gile Na Greine IMO and therefore her price looks the value to me. I think the front 4 in the betting would all have to run below par for JQ to win. She has an awful lot ot find if they run to form. That said Cecil is a magician.
I must be honest I'd have rather they sent Alan Munro over to ride Music Show, at least he will have say on her a lot. This what Channon had to say today- "Seven runners and a high class field - there's no hiding places but they'll be as wary of us as we dare be of them I can assure you! Fran Berry is a top jockey but I don't think it matters too much who's on top of her because she's so easy to get on with. She's hopefully the best I've trained and we'll find out in time. As far as I'm concerned, as long as they go a decent pace I expect to be there or thereabouts at the finish." |
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*sat
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Spacious for me. She did me a right favour in the Windsor Forest last year and has been in good form this.
Saw them all off at Newmarket only to get nabbed late on by Music Show who benifitted from sitting off the pace. And Newmarket has never really suited her. Spacious is 4lb better off with MS, Lilli Langtry and GNG and Fallon rides. Drawn 7 I hope that is on the rails and she can get into her big stride and will not be passed. The 6/1 with 3 6 5 is huge. |
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I think Music Show's run in the Falmouth is really solid, I know they went strong early. As you say the 4lbs will be a big help but Music Show won really cosily and there is no doubt she could have won further on the day if needs be, I can't see the weight being the deciding factor for Spacious. A small field like this isn't going to suit her, I think she will have to make the running as none of the others will do it and that could well be her downfall. I've gotta be honest I think this race may be more suited to a sprinting type because I can see it being a muddling race. Music Show has shown pace over shorter but I'd be worried for her if there isn't a strong gallop though. The Likes of Rainfall and Lady Of The Desert who are probably best at around 7f would have been really suited to this race IMO (I know some people might not like it but I'd put Special Duty in that catergory too). I can't see Spacious winning from the front if that's what she has to do, if she goes a strong gallop Music Show will beat her and if she slows the race down one of the horses that aren't quite milers will nab her in a sprint (this could bring Jaquelines Quest into the equation IMO).
I guess it might be worth seeing how the first 2f pan out before deciding what to do in the race. However I can't do that as I'm on holiday from Saturday, bad timing I know the racing is cracking on Saturday! |
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WE will have to disagree there Cruise. Music Show was brilliatly ridden by RH at Newmarket where the race was run to suit. Straight mile, sat last etc. Here on the turning mile will be a lot different. Spacious ran a blinder in last years Falmouth Gr1 beaten 1l by Goldikova with the winner of this race last year in 4th. She has a massive chance on form and, although drawn 7 is not great I think she could get across and lead throughout.
The fly in the ointment for me is GNG who is drawn 1 and sometimes makes the running but if KF leads he will win. Spacious is a big long striding filly not suited to Newmarket or Goodwood and if KF gets her into a rythm and saves a bit, something he couldn't do at Newarket they will not pass. I backed Music Show in this years Falmouth purely because I thought RM gave her too much to do at Ascot against Lilli and she would turn the tables. And with Spacious not liking Newmarket Music Show was a good bet but Leopardstown is a different cup of tea altogether. A turning tack like Ascot. Add to that Spacious and Music Show's proximity to Goldikova and it's race on. If you do bet MS Cruise make sure you have a saver on Spacious. I don't think you will regret it. |
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Great post brigust! U make a sound case. Thats the trouble with this race you can make a really strong case for at the very least the first 4 in the betting and JQ and GNG aren't bad horses at all. I still think the money will come for Bethrah and Lillie so you may get better odds on the day.
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You may be right Cruise, I took the 6s with 3 6 5 bog.
As an aside I've also had a few quid, and a small double, on one horse I think has a big one in her and that is Serious Attitude (70s on here) in the Betfred Sprint. She will love the ground, ran an absolute blinder from a poor position and on the wrong part of the track in the Jubilee and was then murdered at Newmarket in the July Cup. Lots of dead wood and lots with question marks in this so I think this Gr1 winner with JF keeping the ride could be an upset at a nice price. |
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I agree with Brigust hear. Really like Spacious in this. The fillies seem to be taking it in turns to win the group 1's this season and this is her turn with Fallon onboard. She's been gradually getting better with each run this year and this will be the second time that Fallon is onboard, so he'll have learnt a lot from her after the good run at Newmarket. Think we have most to fear from the fav, Music Show.
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Are any of you Spacious fans not deterred by her below par efforts any time she has not encountered a straight track? I would have big concerns over her effectiveness around a reasonably tight track like Leopardstown. Also she is not really 4lbs better off with Music Show for their falmouth running, it is simply the reduced weight for age allowance at this later stage in the season. For my money Music show has improved considerably throughout the season and is probably still doing so, she will be very hard to beat. Whilst I respect spacious I feel the biggest threat to Music Show may come from an improving outsider in Hen Night.
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I thought Spacious was well suited to Newmarket to be honest. She has made the places there 5 times from 7 runs including the runners-up spot behind Natagora in the Guineas.
I do agree though Music Show had the race run to suit a little more than Spacious last time out. |
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No AJM I am not.
Spacious has run 5 times on a turning track. Won 2 of them. Beaten at Goodwood, not her course, over 10f on soft by Midday Gr1. At Epsom, not her course, over 9f and first time out when even then she was badly hampered and finshed well. And finally 4th in the Coronation Stakes at Ascot, 9/4f again sat behind and hampered. As I said early she is a big long striding filly not suited to undulatinf tracks like Newmarket and Goodwood but even there she runs blinders. The first time they made the running in her whole career was in last year's Windsor Forest and she won. Even in this year's race she never made the running ffs mainly because Ryan Moore knew he would never get past her so he forced the pace and JM accepted that. She led close home but was nabbed in the last stride. Unless GNG takes her on from the 1 draw she will lead and, if she does, form an orderly queue. |
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Where are these 5 occasions that spacious has ran around a bend? The Windsor Forest at Ascot is run on the straight course if im not mistaken. Leaving 3 below par runs on all occasions she has encountered a bend. This could of course be coincidental but I think its at least worth consideration.
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The Windsor Forest is run on the straight mile. Still have to give her a chance though, the others all look capable of running below form and have proven so this year, and Bethrah has been off the track for a while. Good luck.
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Nabbed in the last strides is not what I sawMusic Show won 2 lengths and pulling away. That said I do really respect your opinion on Spacious. The 1 length 2nd to Godldikova last year is her best form by a mile and that suggests to me that she quite likes Newmarket. If you are rightand that she is better away from Newmarket then she probbably should have shwon more by now IMO.
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Sorry for the bad typing. Got my 19 month old on my lap!!
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Try to answer everyone.
Spacious was unbeaten at 2 including May Hill at Doncaster (Gr2) 1 mile (is that round a bend?) At 3 first time out 2nd bt 1/2l by Natagora 1000gns Newmarket finishing fast. 4th Coronation Stakes 9/4f Ascot (bend)finishing Won Frank Whittle 1m Doncaster soft (not like) (bend?) 4th Sun Chariot Gr1 Newmarket 4th to Barshiba 1m 2f (too far) Newmarket (bend?) At 4 3rd Epsom 9f held up, hampered (bend) Won Windsor Forest led all the way for 1st time Straight course. 3rd Goldikova bt 1l Falmouth Gr1 Newmarket led at steady gallop and collared, Rainbow View 4th. 9th Nassau Goodwood 1m 2f soft (bend) 3rd Sun Chariot Gr1 Newmarket Saphresa won Ghanaati 2nd. At 5 3rd at Newmarket 9f first time out, not lead. 2nd sh hd Windsor Forest never led. 2nd Falmouth Newmarket bt by Music Show, disp led to 5f out quickened etc. It was Fanshawe who said she wanted a stiff flat track but the only races she can run in don't fit that brief. The best are either at Newmarket or Goodwood. I also think if you watch the Falmouth again RH used exagerated waitng tactics and won late on. I think everyone will know about that now don't you? The main dangers will be finishing Music Show, Bethra and Lillie Langtry. KF will know this and the track will suit a saver. She may get knabbed on the line but that is only a very doubtful 'may'. |
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Both the Doncaster wins were on the straight course, as is 1m2f at Newmarket. Pollenator won the May Hill at Doncaster last year and Enticement the Listed Severals Stakes if you want to check the recent archives.
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Thanks Ben10.
So round a bend the facts re: Ascot Coronation Stakes Gr1 9/4f 4th held up. Newmarket 1m 2f (too far) Epsom 9f 1st time out, held up, hampered. Goodwood Nassau Gr 1 1m 2f soft ground. Led 3f out to 2f out. So I don't want any of this 'Am I Blue' rubbish when she makes all. Good luck. |
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Good luck mate |
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I do think Spacious has a fair chance. I was just trying to point out that imo she still has to prove she is as effective going round a bend, as for one reason or another she hasnt produced the same level of form as that she has managed on straight courses.
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Thanks Ben. Absolutely AJ but if we knew everything the price would be different. I think she will love everything, except the draw, the trip, the going, the jockey and the opposition (held up).
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Best of luck anyway.
My own view is that Music show has matured into a top quality filly and will be difficult to beat. However, if there is one to cause an upset it could be the outsider Hen Night who if you can excuse a poor run over 10 furlongs on soft ground has the look of a very progressive horse. |
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Actually ive just noticed Hen nights poor run over 10 furlongs was in fact on good ground. Guess my mind just assumes every race in Ireland is in bog like conditions!
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It sounds to me the tactics will be more improtant for Spacious tomorrow rather than racing on a turning track.
gl , her chance is obvious as are the others and the price is fair. |
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Excellent write-up Cruise. I am hoping to find a match bet of Music Show to beat Lilly Langtry. MS has shown super form in small fields (she is only a small horse) and LL is attempting a mile for the 5th time, and only has 1 win to show from the previous 4.
Good Luck one and all |
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I'd be interested to know how quickly MUSIC SHOW really finished at Newmarket. My (unscientific, untimed) impression was that Hughes sat off a near suicidal pace, and picked up the pieces. The jockey said as much afterwards, pointing out the importance of the stiff uphill finish. She's a top quality miler, but I think she might prove better over 10 furlongs in time. Now we don't know it won't be a fast pace, but there has to be a decent chance they won't go flat out, in which case I wouldn't want to be taking a short price about a hold up filly that get's further.
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Nearly did it lads, excellent race. I did lay off in running at 1.8, I would have been a complete idiot not to considering how I thought the race would be run but winning would have been so sweet. Murtagh rode a blinder d a m n it. No complaints.
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Well done, did run a blinder as you say. Music Show clearly crying out for 10f now
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