Dumbarton.

Where did u hear that sint ??

On here Liam.

Some posters said this is next years Derby winner

He was mentioned on the unraced two year olds thread a few weeks ago.

Just been thro its breeding, dam listed placed on soft 7f as a 2yo and 2nd in Irish oaks at 3. Not many DD's bred with Selkirk fillies rated over 100 - English Ballet a notable exception tho, won the sweet solera (Grp 3 )on soft at 2 and also Grp 1 placed at 2 over a mile on gd/sft. Plenty of stamina and class on the distaff side then and also precocity. DD's tend to be better on quicker ground tho, that said, at over 12s on here it must be worth a speculator

ltl,

I am not sure where you got your breeding data from, there are only 4 DD/Selkirk progeny.

Danehill Dancer's are not statistically better on fast ground, the probabilities of DD progeny rating over 100 are, based upon his entire stud career :

Firm, 2% from a sample size of 50.
Good to Firm, 3.75% from a sample size of 133.
Good, 4.3% from a sample size of 2007.
Good to Soft, 6.37% from a sample size of 1351.
Soft, 7.25% from a sample size of 398.

One of Stoute's others backed from 8/1 into 3/1

Padantic's not really my thing Equi, however i stand by what ive said.  DD/Selkirk progeny rated over 100 = 1, not many in my book. DD's tend to be better on quicker ground tho, quicker than what tho ? The stated ground, on this occasion soft. Using your figures, this shows that less than 1% of your total sample size won on soft and therefore over 99% won on ground quicker than soft.Pro rata on soft this is still less than 10%. Figures can be very informative when interpreted correctly [:x]

wouldnt be 12s if it was

ltl,

I am lost. You said "DD's tend to be better on quicker ground".
I am fascinated to know how you have deduced the numbers you claim my numbers state?
At no point have I discussed, or mentioned, winners, thus your comments must be by their very nature be confusing
Naturally my numbers are not based upon simple "1 out of 10" means 10%. They are in the case of DD based upon a population of 6662 runs, using Normal Distribution analysis to create statistical probability.
With regards to DD/Selkirk progeny, as I said there are only four in total, so statistically irrelevant. It would not matter if they were 4 from 4 or zero from 4.

ran well.

Danehill Dancers prefer cut

lads i posted him herte weeks ago,he is a very good horse and will go onto grp races i can guarntee you that

is this a del boy style guarantee?

surely group horses dont go off 10/1 in a class 4 maiden at leicester?

how did the Winner look Gunner ?

Ive taken all the 66s for the derby with Lads,, COME ON DUMBARTON

look he a grp horse,i have no reason to lie stoute thinks highly of the horse

Winner was impressive enough, travelled nicely. No big entries though so maybe not that well thought of although a steady approach would probably suit him.

cheers Ben. will watch it on-line this evening.

dumbarton still 50s for the derby with some firms lads

CHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARGE

perp

potentially a really good maiden sint.

dananders Joined: 14 Jan 09
Replies: 4338 31 Aug 10 15:37   
surely group horses dont go off 10/1 in a class 4 maiden at leicester?





Leicester Result
20 Aug 2007
2:30 » European Breeders' Fund Maiden Stakes (Class 4) (2yo) (7f9y) 7f Good To Soft
£4,533.90, £1,348.90, £674.10, £336.70

WATCH RACE - 20p
RESULT RATE RACE Show all comments in running Show all pedigrees
      HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR   
 
1 3   Spacious 10/1  2 8-12  J R Fanshawe  — * * »
b m Nayef (USA) - Palatial (Green Desert) Jamie Spencer
  Steadied start, held up, headway 3f out, led over 1f out, ran on well (op 8-1)   
 
« 2 8  4  Dr Faustus (IRE) 8/15F  2 9-3  Sir Michael Stoute  — * * »
gr g Sadler's Wells (USA) - Requesting (Rainbow Quest) Ryan Moore
  Chased leader, led over 2f out, ridden, hung left and headed over 1f out, stayed on same pace (op 4-7 tchd 1-2)   
 
3 12  nk  Alfathaa 8/1  2 9-3  W J Haggas  — * * »
b g Nayef (USA) - Arctic Char (Polar Falcon) Richard Hills
  Chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, stayed on same pace (op 9-1)   
 
« 4 10  ½  Redford (IRE) 8/1  2 9-3  M L W Bell  — * * »
b g Bahri (USA) - Ida Lupino (IRE) (Statoblest) T Quinn
  Held up in touch, ridden and edged left over 1f out, stayed on same pace (op 7-1 tchd 9-1)   
 
5 13  8  Gardes (IRE) 33/1  2 9-3  Jane Chapple-Hyam  — * * »
b h Xaar - Golden Honor (IRE) (Hero's Honor) John Egan
  Led over 4f, weakened over 1f out (op 28-1)   
 
6 2  1½  Metaphorical 17/2  2 9-3  M Johnston  — * * »
b h Bahri (USA) - Shinko Hermes (IRE) (Sadler's Wells) J-P Guillambert
  Slowly into stride, soon chasing leaders, weakened over 1f out (op 8-1 tchd 10-1)   
 
« 7 14  1  Mganga 40/1  2 8-10  M R Channon  — * * »
b g Dr Fong (USA) - Hannalou (FR) (Shareef Dancer) Thomas O'Brien7
  Slowly into stride, headway over 5f out, ridden halfway, weakened over 2f out (op 33-1)   
 
8 1  1  Balais Folly (FR) 66/1  2 9-3  B Palling  — * * »
ch g Act One - Bhima (Polar Falcon) Steve Drowne
  Slowly into stride, in rear, behind from halfway   
 
9 9  ½  Lacala (IRE) 150/1  2 8-12  Jane Chapple-Hyam  — * * »
ch m Alhaarth (IRE) - Gazar (Kris) James Doyle
  Slowly into stride, soon prominent, weakened 3f out (op 100-1)   
 
10 4  13  Aim 150/1  2 9-3  J R Jenkins  — * * »
b g Weetman's Weigh (IRE) - Ballet On Ice (FR) (Fijar Tango) Paul Doe
  Dwelt, outpaced (op 100-1)   
 

10 ran TIME 1m 27.91s (slow by 4.11s) Total SP 115%
NON RUNNERS: Desert Life (IRE), Hustle (IRE), Jabal Tariq, Spinning Ridge (IRE)
1st OWNER: Cheveley Park Stud BRED: Cheveley Park Stud Ltd TRAINER: J R Fanshawe
2nd OWNER: Gainsborough
3rd OWNER: Hamdan Al Maktoum
TOTE WIN £10.30 PL £2.40, £1.02, £1.90; Ex £22.00; CSF £15.64 TRIFECTA £55.50 Pool £329.14 - 4.21 winning units.
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A promising start from Dumbarton. Showed signs of greenness as he tried to keep tabs with the main group, was going well enough until they quickened it up approaching the final furlong when flattening out - will come on plenty for that run.

I see a few people saying 10/1 shots on debut from the Stoute yard surely won't ever go on to great things, but a close relation of his, Stage Gift, finished 7th in a Doncaster maiden at 20/1 on his debut (also apprentice ridden) - didn't stop him winning at Group 1 level further down the line. Conduit was 7/1 on his debut and took a while to get his act together, but he went on to success at Group/Grade 1 level including in the St Leger.

Not saying that Dumbarton will go on to Group 1 glory, but it is far too early to be writing him off on the basis of what was a promising first effort, 10/1 chance or not.

^ good post look i know the stable and they really like the horse and hes definitly a horse with a future,he was very green and didnt quicken up but he wasnt knocked about and least he didnt place so might get a price for his maiden

6th and 3rd of the 3 Stoute runners 

Hope your followers were all in on this one. Didnt realise how really clueless you are until looking at your threads nearly all hapless.

I literally came on here to make a thread asking for any information on this horse and see this thread mid page!

So i'll ask in here.

Anybody know when we will see this horse this season and also does anybody know who owns it?

one of the directors is the pro at glencorse g.c.-what a p r i c k

ttt

you daisy dumbarton a year waiting for this machine to run got my derby bet back

ttt for ltl

[:D]

Some good info on this thread abou the horse. Must re-read before Saturday

Mark looks fair ?

I see your boys think so RM.

Clear top with a p...

Thinking ahead, you think he's a Cambridgeshire horse? 3YOs generally need to be rated in low-mid 90s to get in, which I'd imagine would be the around his mark if he wins on Saturday.

If he was trained by another prominent HQ trainer with form in this race with promising 3yos I would start to get excited...