Horse Antepost
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Racecaller 10 year trends for the group 1 Matron Stakes at Leopardstown on Saturday:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 7-10-63
4yo: 2-5-17
5yo: 1-2-6
6yo+: 0-1-3
Since the race became a group 1 in 2004:
3yos: 3-5-31
4yo+: 3-5-18
In the three years that 3yos won this as a group 1 only two of the seven older horses to run in it were priced under 16/1: (Peeress 2nd in 2006, Heaven Sent 2nd in 2009).
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had won over a mile
9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out (5 won)
10 of 10 winners had won at listed level or above
Since this became a group one 6 of 6 winners had won a group race (4 were group 1 winners)
10 of 10 winners ran in last 45 days
Other Races
Falmouth Stakes winner (Music Show): 12 (1-1-2)
Dahlia Stakes winner (Strawberrydaiquiri): 12 (1-1-2)
Coronation Stakes winner (Lillie Langtry): 6241 (1-1-4)
Previous season's Sweet Solera winner (Long Lashes): 1 (1-0-1)
1000 Guineas winner: 23 (0-2-2)
Irish 1000 Guineas winner (Bethrah): 2533 (0-2-4)
Derrinstown Stud 1000 Guineas Trial winner (Bethrah): 288 (0-1-3)
Nell Gwynn Stakes winner (Music Show): 6 (0-0-1)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Falmouth, finishing 914
3 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Coronation Stakes, finishing 613
2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Nassau Stakes, finishing 22
2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the 1000 Guineas, finishing 65
2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Oaks, finishing 54
2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Sandringham Handicap, finishing 11
2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Oaks, finishing 54
Since this became a group one, 5 of 6 winners had run in the 1000 Guineas as 3yos, finishing 41965
Trainers
British-trained horses: 8-11-30
Irish-trained horses: 2-7-59
British-based trainers have dominated this race, having won 8 of the last 10 and since it became a group 1 they have won 5 of 6 and filled 12 of 16 places.
Michael Stoute (2-3-5) has a super record in this race having seen all 5 of his runners finish in the first two, with two successful.
James Fanshawe (1-0-2) is the only other British trainer with an entrant this year that has won the race in the past decade.
Jim Bolger (1-1-6) and Dermot Weld (1-1-6) are the only two Irish trainers to have saddled the winner of this race in the past 10 years.
This is one of the very few Irish group 1’s that Aidan O’Brien (0-3-14) has not trained the winner of in the past decade, despite having had 13 runners go to post.
Price
10 of 10 winners were priced 6/1 or below
All 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting, not a race to be looking for an upset.
Favourites (6-3-10) have won 6 of the last 10, including the last 3 and show a level stakes profit of 5.47.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Finished in the first 3 in a group race last time out
• Ran in last 45 days
• Won over a mile
• Won a group race (preferably a group 1)
• Ran in the 1000 Guineas as a 3yo
• Trained in Britain
• Trained by Michael Stoute
• Priced 6/1 or below
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 7-10-63
4yo: 2-5-17
5yo: 1-2-6
6yo+: 0-1-3
Since the race became a group 1 in 2004:
3yos: 3-5-31
4yo+: 3-5-18
In the three years that 3yos won this as a group 1 only two of the seven older horses to run in it were priced under 16/1: (Peeress 2nd in 2006, Heaven Sent 2nd in 2009).
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had won over a mile
9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out (5 won)
10 of 10 winners had won at listed level or above
Since this became a group one 6 of 6 winners had won a group race (4 were group 1 winners)
10 of 10 winners ran in last 45 days
Other Races
Falmouth Stakes winner (Music Show): 12 (1-1-2)
Dahlia Stakes winner (Strawberrydaiquiri): 12 (1-1-2)
Coronation Stakes winner (Lillie Langtry): 6241 (1-1-4)
Previous season's Sweet Solera winner (Long Lashes): 1 (1-0-1)
1000 Guineas winner: 23 (0-2-2)
Irish 1000 Guineas winner (Bethrah): 2533 (0-2-4)
Derrinstown Stud 1000 Guineas Trial winner (Bethrah): 288 (0-1-3)
Nell Gwynn Stakes winner (Music Show): 6 (0-0-1)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Falmouth, finishing 914
3 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Coronation Stakes, finishing 613
2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Nassau Stakes, finishing 22
2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the 1000 Guineas, finishing 65
2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Oaks, finishing 54
2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Sandringham Handicap, finishing 11
2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Oaks, finishing 54
Since this became a group one, 5 of 6 winners had run in the 1000 Guineas as 3yos, finishing 41965
Trainers
British-trained horses: 8-11-30
Irish-trained horses: 2-7-59
British-based trainers have dominated this race, having won 8 of the last 10 and since it became a group 1 they have won 5 of 6 and filled 12 of 16 places.
Michael Stoute (2-3-5) has a super record in this race having seen all 5 of his runners finish in the first two, with two successful.
James Fanshawe (1-0-2) is the only other British trainer with an entrant this year that has won the race in the past decade.
Jim Bolger (1-1-6) and Dermot Weld (1-1-6) are the only two Irish trainers to have saddled the winner of this race in the past 10 years.
This is one of the very few Irish group 1’s that Aidan O’Brien (0-3-14) has not trained the winner of in the past decade, despite having had 13 runners go to post.
Price
10 of 10 winners were priced 6/1 or below
All 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting, not a race to be looking for an upset.
Favourites (6-3-10) have won 6 of the last 10, including the last 3 and show a level stakes profit of 5.47.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Finished in the first 3 in a group race last time out
• Ran in last 45 days
• Won over a mile
• Won a group race (preferably a group 1)
• Ran in the 1000 Guineas as a 3yo
• Trained in Britain
• Trained by Michael Stoute
• Priced 6/1 or below
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Replies: 5
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At the moment Music Show for me would be the most solid option(seen 3s available) but will hold fire for the time being
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btw thanks for the stats racecaller
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Music Show will do for me too, but the forecast for saturday is shocking so will wait to see what that brings
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cheers for the weather up date satellite will hold fire as well.
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strawberry, was noted to be in excellent condition on the newmarket gallops about 2weeks ago
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