Horse Antepost
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What chance he will make the cut? Only 20 runners!
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None.(unfortunately)
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What chance he will make the cut? Only 20 runners!
Price shortening on the books,in to 6/1?? MARTYR shortening OVERTURN shortening - didn't think this was a definite runner?? Are we now NRNB? Not as far as I can see - joe Wednesday 18th August 3.25pm, All In Run Or Not |
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What chance he will make the cut? Only 20 runners!
Price shortening on the books,in to 6/1?? MARTYR shortening OVERTURN shortening - didn't think this was a definite runner?? Are we now NRNB? Not as far as I can see - joe Wednesday 18th August 3.25pm, All In Run Or Not I wonder if people jump in to back horses shortening in the market without realising that a/post non-runners often means you have done your money!! |
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No, 99.9% of people fully understand the rules. And id make harris tweed 4/1 to make the cut, which is a shame as I think the rules regarding wfa are wrong and the higher rated horse should run.
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If they're balloted out, as seems likely with Harris Tweed, then you get your stake returned, hence he's essentially the price he would be if he was a runner.
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He's only rated higher because he's 3 and the wfa is built into his rating, wospo. The older horses are the better, higher-rated horses in real terms so should get in first.
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With respect Headmaster, thats utter rubbish. Of course WFA is not built into a 3yr olds rating.
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Trouble with you wospo is it's hard to have a sensible debate as one never knows whether one is fishing or not. I'll give you the benefit of doubt for now (or an easy escape route should you so choose).
If w-f-a is not built in why is the 110-rated Theology down to carry the same weight as his 98-rated elders? |
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Have you been drinking, Headmaster ?
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Not yet, FB, but not long to go now.
I take it you disagree? |
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Schoolboy error (rather apt).
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shocking stuff from the Headmaster. Sharp minds
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I'll take you all on if anyone cares to open the debate!
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Ill start chief.
"Weight for age is not or never has been built into a 3yr olds rating" end of debate. Cheers |
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So Theology's rating of 110 is accurate and has no wfa in it. Why then is he not set to carry 9-10 as he should be?
Answer: because the rating has wfa built in and is a PROJECTION of where he would be if he was a fully mature horse. He isn't, of course, so he's down to carry 8-12 and run off his 'real' rating of 98. Over to you, guv... |
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[:D]
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[;)]
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This is surely a fish
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HARRIS TWEED, long-term ante-post favourite for the Totesport Ebor, will instead run in Tuesday's Sportingbet.com Great Voltigeur Stakes after connections conceded that the progressive stayer no longer has any realistic hope of getting into the showpiece handicap's field.
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Imagine horse hasn't been withdrawn and connection will allow him to be balloted out...therefore antepost punters will get their money back
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Don't think ante-post punters will be foremost in connections' thoughts.
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Headmaster
I strongly suggest that have a word with the bloke who teaches Maths at your school and book some lessons. |
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lol
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I make that four of you booked in for a rather rudimentary course of official handicapping techniques. One or two I'm surprised at. One or two I'm not.
Anyone else need their bottom wiping? |
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Headmaster, at best you are making a tit of yourself here. and stake is coming across as a clueless sidekick (which suprises me).
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I've made a tit of myself plenty of times before so nothing new there. Interestingly, talking of clueless sidekicks - which S&C is most definitely not - you seemed to go a bit quiet until a few luddites joined in and you suddenly found your voice again.
Anyway, once we wade through the sideswipes, I'm afraid none of you has managed to post a sensible sentence against my 15:14. I know you're fond of a sidebet wospo and I'm rather tempted. Maybe top div, flyingbolt and zilzal would like to take my money too? I maintain: A 3-y-o has wfa built into his rating. In other words, Theology's 110 is a projection of where he would be if he was a fully mature horse, granted normal improvement, and the mark is inflated because he is a 3-y-o. In essence, his “real” rating is 98, which is the mark he is judged to be competitive from and the mark he would run off next week. Now prove me wrong and post something sensible chaps, please. Or admit you don't know what you're talking about and fo, ta. |
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Dont know where to go with it Headmaster, you are just bang wrong.
My first statement stands Ill start chief. "Weight for age is not or never has been built into a 3yr olds rating" end of debate. Cheers Theology is rated 110, as in the handicappers view its form warrants a rating of 110, what happens in the future or what races it takes in is completely irrelevent. It is not a projection, it is its official mark. I really thought you were fishing, but it appears you are just clueless on this. |
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On a weekly basis the British Horseracing Board (BHB) handicappers aim to produce an official rating for every UK horse in training that qualifies to run in a handicap.
To take into account the fact that horses continue to grow through the ages of three, four, and even five years, there is a ‘weight-for-age’ adjustment to make things fairer when horses of different ages compete against each other. HTH |
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I maintain:
A 3-y-o has wfa built into his rating. Lets give a example of how the wording of that is wrong, Say the Ebor was washed out and had to be run in Nov, Now Theology would be 4lbs worse off with his Elders on the weight for age scale compared to August, but his actual Rating would still be 110, if it was BUILT into his rating then it would be 114, the fact that he gets weight is a product of the weight for age system. |
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Over to you headmaster
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Good work, Facts. You might need to post that more than once though, I fear.
Zilzal, Are you debating whether a 3-y-o's rating is boosted by an immaturity allowance, or has this just turned to semantics? Anyway, why would it be 114? The horse is maturing at the same rate the wfa allowance comes down so his rating remains static. The difference between August and November occurs when the weights are framed by effectively reducing the projection that had previously inflated the horse's rating so that he gets 4lb less off his back. Wospo, The mark is absolutely a projection of where the horse might be in a years time. Why do you think horses are eliminated by weight and not by rating? This is the whole essence of the debate.....the BHA think it is wrong to allow a lesser horse into a race (Harris Tweed, for instance, rated 103) at the expense of a better horse (Hanoverian Baron, for instance, rated 92). Now why would the BHA and their handicappers think a horse rated 103 is a lesser animal than one rated 92? Because the 103 rating has been artifically inflated by WFA, wospo, perhaps??? |
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Headmaster, the mark is not a projection- It is the handicappers view of the horses mark at this time. Whether you imagined, dreamt, or were told about this "projection" b0llox, it's wrong.
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Good God,Headmaster I thought you had a bit more savvy than this.
Unbelievable. |
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you live and learn flying, live and learn
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In the Senior Handicapper's words...."It is a projection granted normal improvement".
You appear to be way out your depth, wospo. I suggest an early bath. |
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Anyone have the head in hands man please?
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Flyingbolt,
You've added nothing to this thread and are starting to remind me of a ringside granny at an early 80s wrestling bout. At least Zilzal's had a reasonable go at defending his position. If it's possible to reach your keyboard from such a lofty position maybe you'd like to have a go too? |
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He is probably in shock, my 8 year old has just remarked that he thought "everyone knew that", I echo the boy.
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Horses are given a rating based on what the handicapper thinks their form is worth. If a 3-y-o then races against older horses he is given a weight for age allowance which reduces as the season progresses.
Their rating is NOT inflated to take onto account their age. It is the mark the handicapper thinks their form is worth. Now which part of this simple conception that has stood the test of time for 200 years are you struggling with ? |