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dananders
04 Aug 10 11:56
Joined:
Date Joined: 14 Jan 09
| Topic/replies: 373 | Blogger: dananders's blog
really fancy gramercy of michael bells to run well in this if he turns up. hes entered this week to  run on a mark of 92 if he wins that thell have to think about this race with the age allowance. heavily improved for the softer ground last time and was backed off the boards won eased down. i could see him running a huge race with the age allowance
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Report dananders August 5, 2010 4:35 PM BST
olivier peslier. wat a rider to have
Report dananders August 7, 2010 5:09 PM BST
gramercy easy easy easy
Report Sir Epicure Mammon August 7, 2010 5:16 PM BST
zilzal1     04 Aug 10 20:01 
Nicholls dont usually last into the Autumn

Great comedy post ! How many times has he won the Ayr Gold Cup ? And Silver Cup ? Ayr in Sept + Glorious Goodwood are his top meetings.
Report dananders August 7, 2010 5:17 PM BST
irrelevant they wont beat gramercy if he turns up which he should .
Report zilzal1 August 7, 2010 5:40 PM BST
Sir Epicure, he tends to target midsummer a bit more now with his sprint handicappers, his strike rate for the last four years are as follows(Handicaps over 5 and 6 furlongs)


July    183    22    12.0%   
August    167    18    10.8%   
September147    10    6.8%   
October    50    3    6.0%   
November 9    0    0.0
December 4    1    25.0%
Report Sir Epicure Mammon August 7, 2010 6:23 PM BST
Sorry, thought the thread concerned the Ayr Gold Cup.
ie the valuable prize he targets as opposed to the dross races at Ayr.
I reckon 5 winners from the last 10 Ayr Gold Cups ( including two years ago) isn't too shoddy....
Report zilzal1 August 7, 2010 7:03 PM BST
Sir Ep, he did go through a spell of having the winner around three or four years on the trot in the early 2000's, and one in the last six, however i take your point.

Ive no idea if he has changed his training regime at all, just pointing out his strike rate
Report Stevie Gerrard August 7, 2010 11:25 PM BST
I suppose Redford who is now with Nicholls could be one of his main hopes for that race,travelled really well (as usual) before fading, I don't really trust the horse but he was 3rd in the stands side group last year and if it is soft then maybe he could do it.

PFtraders fancy Poet's Place was impressive today, again would be wanting soft ground for him as well.
Report PFtrader August 8, 2010 1:23 PM BST
Poet's Place looked good yesterday.

That should be enough to get him raised the 9lbs or so required to guarantee his place in the Gold Cup field. The Ayr race now seems the obvious target given his liking for cut in the ground.
Report dananders August 8, 2010 1:26 PM BST
when will there be betting on here 4 it?
Report GT August 8, 2010 8:07 PM BST
the winner is in jim goldies stable
Report rhinestone August 8, 2010 8:40 PM BST
Don't think it will be fast ground GT. As much as I like him and was on big for the Stewards can't see him winning this on soft.
Report ben10 August 9, 2010 12:47 PM BST
Surely Gramercy and Poet's Place need to be looking above handicaps now, both will be clobbered for their impressive weekend wins.
Redford definitely has to be on the radar for Ayr imo.
Report dananders August 9, 2010 5:14 PM BST
only be on a mark of 98 gramercy maybe and being only 3 will get an age allowance. probably martin lane claiming 3 will ride
Report PFtrader August 9, 2010 7:40 PM BST
Ben10

Have to disagree about Poet's Place being "clobbered". He had to win convincingly to cement his place in the field.

He was rated 86 when winning on Saturday, would expect him to be raised somewhere in the region of 9 - 11 lbs for his victory on Saturday taking his new mark to around 97.

The last five winners of the race have been rated as follows;-

2005 - Presto Shinko 98 (bottom weight rated 91)
2006 - Fonthill Road 97 (bottom weight rated 93)
2007 - Advanced 109 (bottom weight rated 95)
2008 - Regal Parade 99 (bottom weight rated 92)
2009 - Jimmy Styles 100 (bottom weight rated 96)

Based on the above I would suggest he is going to have a suitable profile for the race.
Report rhinestone August 9, 2010 7:51 PM BST
Aye, just want some 16's now.
Report PFtrader August 9, 2010 8:07 PM BST
rhinestone

Would prefer 25's Laugh
Report dananders August 9, 2010 11:24 PM BST
just read bells website and he comfired that gramercys next run is likely to be gold cup. as the tool says on youtube get on it get on it large
Report rhinestone August 9, 2010 11:41 PM BST
obviously pf Laugh
Report ben10 August 10, 2010 12:03 AM BST
Gramercy entered on Saturday at Newmarket, potential good one in there in Bated Breath. He was given 105 by the Racing Post for his win, would expect similar from the handicapper, the wfa may take some of the burden off though as you say.
With 6 weeks to go until Ayr will be surprised if Poets Place doesn't run again too before then. Fair point regarding his revised mark, don't be surprised if he's given 100 though for the manner of the win.
Like I said I'd be looking for coming out of handicap company as both look classy but Ayr's a big prize so good luck.
Report zilzal1 August 10, 2010 12:11 AM BST
The draw usually makes this a no betting race until the day though, Last year you had to be on the far side whilst the year before Regal Parade came up the near side
Report Dark Destroyer August 10, 2010 7:53 AM BST
Agree 100% with Zilzal.

For once we have a major handicap where by exercising patience (and a small amount of study re where the pace is likely to be) we might actually have an edge re the draw. No bet for me until after the Silver Cup has been run - unless the Bronze is on the same day as well.
Report PFtrader August 11, 2010 8:41 PM BST
Poet's Place raised 10lb to a mark of 96
Report rhinestone August 11, 2010 8:43 PM BST
Mischief
Report dananders August 11, 2010 9:45 PM BST
gramecy upto 99. he wont run on saturday . do we imagine hell be fav when the market opens?
Report rhinestone August 11, 2010 9:51 PM BST
hope so. Do you know when the entries, then therefore first shows will be out dananders? Was thinking about a week?
Report dananders August 11, 2010 9:55 PM BST
not a clue mate
Report DABHAND August 12, 2010 6:28 PM BST
entries out 24/25
Report dananders August 13, 2010 12:26 PM BST
gramercy is running tomorro. bell already said ayr gold cup the target . he must think gramercys a serious horse if hes carrying on with this horse
Report dananders August 15, 2010 1:00 PM BST
maybe that race come a little too soon. was never at the races yesteerday ill forgive gramercy that run
Report the lay preacher August 17, 2010 10:15 PM BST
the ground done him dananders like i said earlier he wants fast ground.
Report dananders August 18, 2010 12:09 PM BST
bell said when he won at haydock  he really improved for the softer conditions but he blamed the soft ground saturday. perhaps he just wants nice ground. been beat on fast ground on many occasion. i think it was 1 run too many tbh think he was asleep the whole race
Report PFtrader August 19, 2010 6:59 PM BST
Entries and ratings now available on RP website
Report Beryl August 19, 2010 7:59 PM BST
Victoire De Lyphar at this stage for me. The owners website stated at the beginning of the season that this would be one his targets for the season. He's been lightly raced this season and I believe has plenty more improvement in him.

His win in the big 3 year old race at York earlier this season was impressive.

The fast pace of the Ayr Gold Cup and the flat nature of the track should be right up his street.

My favourite sprint handicap of the year LoveLove
Report the yomper August 22, 2010 8:28 PM BST
365 have got an ante p market up-
Report bazzar August 23, 2010 10:32 AM BST
This thread is obsolete as Gramercy is not entered for the Ayr gold cup.
Report dananders August 23, 2010 6:32 PM BST
wasnt aware of that . but bell said itw as the target a month ago. but never mind
Report 87blade August 26, 2010 10:36 AM BST
Anyone know where the full list of entries with weights is available?
Report Far From Trouble August 26, 2010 11:42 AM BST
here

http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=512275&r_date=2010-09-18&big_race=Y


press WGT above the weights to sort it in weight order
Report Fela Kuti September 3, 2010 10:58 AM BST
Redford for me. Travelled like a dream at Chester last time out and for my money was never really put into the race or put under pressure at any stage of the race. I can see it finishing like a train off the strong pace.
Report Long Run's To Glory September 7, 2010 2:44 AM BST
Dever Drema anyone? Confused
Report PFtrader September 11, 2010 3:10 PM BST
All systems go for Ayr for Poet's Place

Trip too short today
ground not soft enough
missed the break slightly

On the negative side I thought he had a hard race today and he now incurs a penalty next week, hopefully more cut in the ground will offset that.
Report Stevie Gerrard September 11, 2010 3:35 PM BST
anyone see Definightly at Goodwood just the? very impressive.
Report IANMONGAN September 11, 2010 3:46 PM BST
i saw it, gets in off adbl pen doesn't he (88+5+5=98)
Report DABHAND September 11, 2010 5:10 PM BST
88 + 5 + 3 = 96
Report sintonian September 11, 2010 7:26 PM BST
speculative few quid ew on Arganil at 50/1.
Report zilzal1 September 11, 2010 7:43 PM BST
Ayr g/f at present according to Turftrax, 5 day forecast has heavy Rain on Monday and Showers on Wednesday
Report Oasisdreamer September 11, 2010 9:30 PM BST
Based on the current ground and the various weather forecasts I'd plump for just on fast side of good by next Saturday.  There's some strong winds fcst next midweek that will help dry out the course.
Report zilzal1 September 11, 2010 9:46 PM BST
Looks one of the hottest Gold Cups for a while, plenty of good sprinters in form, id like Johnny Mudball on faster ground, Johannes has been really out of luck with the draw (including today) and would like a sound surface
Report sintonian September 12, 2010 9:15 AM BST
is he not best fresh Zilzal ? I nearly backed him yesterday too but came to the conclusion all his runs since seasonal debut have been a little below par (albeit respectable) ..
Report zilzal1 September 12, 2010 9:39 AM BST
Sint, maybe, but he's now been on the wrong side of the course in his last three runs, Goodwood, Ripon and yesterday
Report PFtrader September 12, 2010 9:57 AM BST
bit too old and exposed to be winning this, no ?
Report zilzal1 September 12, 2010 10:01 AM BST
Probably pf, would have Johnny Mudball on decent ground, its a day of the race bet for me though, and probably 20 seconds after the silver cup!!!!

Think that he could well win a decent event though, ground and draw permitting
Report Dark Destroyer September 12, 2010 10:03 AM BST
I hope Dabhand is right about Definightly (double penalty bringing him up to 8st 11lb) as by my reckoning that makes him No. 43 in the entries with a big chance of making the cut. His Goodwood run yesterday just gets better every time I watch it.

Anyone lucky enough to be able to bet with £3.65 or Sky bet should take the 33s quickly IMO.
Report Terry Venables September 12, 2010 12:21 PM BST
Dabhand

Does Prime Exhibit go for this?
Report DABHAND September 12, 2010 2:06 PM BST
YES TV
ITS BEEN THE PLAN ALL YEAR
NEEDS 5 TO COME OUT,IT WILL BE CLOSE (PRAY FOR RAIN)
Report top div September 12, 2010 3:33 PM BST
PFtrader     11 Sep 10 15:10 
All systems go for Ayr for Poet's Place

Trip too short today
ground not soft enough
missed the break slightly

On the negative side I thought he had a hard race today and he now incurs a penalty next week, hopefully more cut in the ground will offset that.


Obvious one to tip but i've followed him all season and felt obliged to take some ante post 10's on him when the prices came out.Saturdays win means he's certain to get in now and as mentioned above it was a terrific effort to win yesterday seeing as he definitely wants further and probably wants more give too.A penalty won't stop him if in the same form - it's a question of whether he'll be in the same form 7 days later after a hardish race - but it's not like it was a 2 mile slog in the mud.

He's still a fair bit better than his rating imo.
Report Terry Venables September 12, 2010 4:04 PM BST
Dabhand

Thanks for your reply

May I Wish you all the best
Report top div September 12, 2010 5:12 PM BST
DABHAND     12 Sep 10 14:06 
YES TV
ITS BEEN THE PLAN ALL YEAR
NEEDS 5 TO COME OUT,IT WILL BE CLOSE (PRAY FOR RAIN)

From an outsiders point of view (albeit an outsider who's kept an eye on the horse a fair bit) i can't help but wonder why the Ayr Gold Cup would have been chosen as 'the' target of the season when the horse has never looked to possess the necessary pace for 6f,unless it's soft/heavy ground (and even then it'd be debatable imo).
Presumably you are close to the horse Dabhand,can you shed any light on why coming down in trip is preferred to staying at 7f or indeed stepping back up to a mile,or is it purely a case of connections wanting an Ayr Gold Cup runner ?.
Report DABHAND September 12, 2010 5:17 PM BST
TOP DIV

REGAL PARADE ( SAY NO MORE )
Report DABHAND September 12, 2010 5:26 PM BST
TOP DIV
ITS NOT PURELY A CASE OF WANTING AN AYR GOLD CUP RUNNER I ALSO HAVE EVENS AND ODDS
7F HORSES WIN THE AYR GOLD CUP
Report Terry Venables September 12, 2010 5:29 PM BST
Which do you prefer!!
Report DABHAND September 12, 2010 5:39 PM BST
SOFT/HEAVY PRIME
GOOD OR FASTER EVENS

G/F PRIME WONT RUN
Report top div September 12, 2010 7:38 PM BST
Well good luck to you Dabhand,i've a soft spot for Prime Exhibit having backed him on a couple of winning runs (and a couple of honourable placed efforts) but i couldn't be backing him over 6f unless it was a real slog,he's never struck me as a 6f horse at all tbh but then i'm sure connections would have a far better idea than me !.
Report Value King September 12, 2010 9:05 PM BST
Dabhand, may I ask what made you buy Courageous? It looks like a decent bit of business. And will he be going for one of the consolation races up at Ayr? I was at Haydock on his last start when he was flying home over 5f after a tardy start. Looks like one to follow next time.
Report PFtrader September 12, 2010 9:38 PM BST
top div Joined: 19 Nov 02
Replies: 1953 12 Sep 10 15:33   


PFtrader     11 Sep 10 15:10 
All systems go for Ayr for Poet's Place

Trip too short today
ground not soft enough
missed the break slightly

On the negative side I thought he had a hard race today and he now incurs a penalty next week, hopefully more cut in the ground will offset that.


Obvious one to tip but i've followed him all season and felt obliged to take some ante post 10's on him when the prices came out.Saturdays win means he's certain to get in now and as mentioned above it was a terrific effort to win yesterday seeing as he definitely wants further and probably wants more give too.A penalty won't stop him if in the same form - it's a question of whether he'll be in the same form 7 days later after a hardish race - but it's not like it was a 2 mile slog in the mud.

He's still a fair bit better than his rating imo.

Wouldn't disagree with the above, presumably connections also agree as they saw fit to enter him for the Group 2 Diadem Stakes at Ascot on 26 September.
Report DABHAND September 12, 2010 9:58 PM BST
VK
COURAGEOUS WAS BOUGHT ON THE RUN AS A 2 YEAR OLD IN THE RACING POST TROPHY I DID NOT THINK HE GOT HOME THAT DAY . AFTER THAT THEY FRONT RAN HIM, I THINK HE NEEDS HELD UP AND COVER. HE MIGHT RUN IN THE 7F RACE ON SAT AT AYR OR THE BRONZE CUP
Report Value King September 12, 2010 10:06 PM BST
Thanks for the response Dabhand. Hopefully the Bronze Cup will be his next port of call. I'd love to see him gain a big sprint win, he deserves one.
Report sintonian September 13, 2010 10:11 AM BST
POET'S PLACE, who leapt to the head of the betting for the William Hill Ayr Gold Cup after winning the Ladbrokes Portland Handicap, is on target for Saturday's race, trainer David Barron confirmed on Monday.

The sponsor's 7-1 favourite picked up a 5lb penalty at Doncaster which secured him a place in the 6f sprint handicap.

"At this particular moment the plan is to run," said Barron.

"The entry will be confirmed this morning. Obviously the race isn't until Saturday and all sorts of things can happen before Saturday but that applies to them all.

"If everything is okay he will be heading for it. He is fineafter Doncaster."
Report Mister Westsound September 13, 2010 6:49 PM BST
Absolute deluge of rain in Ayr today - torrential since morning and still pouring down.  Standing water on the grass at the playing fields less than a mile from the track.  That said it's very windy and after today it's just showers (albeit heavy ones) for the rest of the week with a drying wind.
Report top div September 13, 2010 7:45 PM BST
Thanks for weather info - i'd be happy with anything other than good/firm or heavy for the favourite so todays rain plus the forecast seems ideal.
Report sariska boy September 13, 2010 8:45 PM BST
mr westound keep the weather updates coming through please,
the more rain the better because when it gets windy up there it does tend to dry out quite quickly,
Report jda September 14, 2010 8:59 AM BST
what are the  chances of  Advanced getting in ? thanks for any help ! x
Report Mister Westsound September 14, 2010 6:04 PM BST
Very Heavy showers all day today accompanied by gale force winds but definite further easing in the ground likely as a further period of rain forecast for overnight.  After tomorrow dry with strong winds and cooler so it might well be on the soft side for Thursday but despite the rain IF (big IF) the forecast is right it's bound to dry out a bit by Saturday espaecialy once it's opened up by racing on the first 2 days.
Report Mister Westsound September 15, 2010 7:12 PM BST
Last night's forecast rain never arrived so the ground dried out a bit hence with the strong wind hence the slightly better going report this morning.  Very little rain today and a bright and breezy afternoon will have dried it out a wee bit more.  Not too much more rain before Saturday but some uncertainty about rain on the day of the GC.  Honestly can't see it being slower than good unless rain comes on the day of the race.
Report zilzal1 September 15, 2010 7:25 PM BST
Cheers Mister, cracking geat warming up. this must be one of the best renewals of the race that ive seen...............
Report zilzal1 September 15, 2010 7:25 PM BST
Heat LOL
Report doogs September 16, 2010 11:08 AM BST
Definightly misses cut by 5 Cry
Report Baker Boy September 16, 2010 12:22 PM BST
MW, hope your right and we get Good ground, now i've seen the draw, i'm very sweet on Johnny Mudball, got decent form with Poets Place and think the 14/1 around is large.
Report zilzal1 September 16, 2010 12:23 PM BST
Agree Baker
Report Fela Kuti September 16, 2010 5:17 PM BST
Redford and Partner are the two for me. Redford has the beating of a few of these on last years running IMO and should be teed up nicely after an extremely tender ride last time out. With Dettori on I can see him coming late and fast.

Partner is a more speculative chose as I mightily impressed with the way he won on the AW under Spencer. He looked to me that day like a horse who had a ton in hand. Mind you he would need to have as he won that day off 63 and is now running off 97! The trainer has won two big pots with his raiders in the last two seasons and I think the horse will run well at a big price.

I can see either or both of these being Pricewise selection on the day but I have taken 20's on Redford and 33's on Partner.
Report mookybarkid September 16, 2010 6:57 PM BST
Who did you get 20s on Redford with?  Ive been watching all day and he hasnt gone bigger than 16s
Report zilzal1 September 16, 2010 7:02 PM BST
If we get no rain it could end up nearly being g/f!!!
Report PFtrader September 16, 2010 7:30 PM BST
Nice sunny day ahead tomorrow and some rain forecast for Saturday.

Comments of the CoC on RP website were

"There is no rain forecast tomorrow but we could get a bit during the fixture on Saturday, 2mm-4mm."
Report Reefer 2001 September 16, 2010 10:03 PM BST
It'll be low numbers tomorrow in the Bronze.  I still can't forget Fonthill Road winning on his own on the low side.  Draw is a bloomin lottery in this race.
Report Fela Kuti September 17, 2010 12:31 AM BST
I backed Redford early doors when the prices came out with PP & WH.
Report toderav September 17, 2010 1:24 AM BST
im a big Jonny Mudball fan at around 13s e/w

GL
Report boy wonder 07 September 17, 2010 8:44 AM BST
if the ground rides genuinely good noverre to go is overpriced jockeys claim gives him big chance
Report Dark Destroyer September 17, 2010 9:48 AM BST
Having held off so far (other than taking all the 25/1 I could get about Definightly Sad  ) I can hold off a few hours more just in case the Bronze Cup shows a significant draw bias.

Short term weather forecast can now also be taken into consideration.
Report Mister Westsound September 17, 2010 10:16 AM BST
Dry bright sunny windy day - ground must be drying all the time and the rain that was forecast for tomorrow is now not certain and Ayr could miss it all together.  Ground bound to be good or faster imo.
Report zilzal1 September 17, 2010 10:17 AM BST
At 10.1 on the stands rail it must be already nearly fast!!!!
Report sintonian September 17, 2010 1:06 PM BST
happy with the draw on Arganil anyway.
Report johnn September 17, 2010 1:19 PM BST
cloudy and windy and sunny and dry imo
Report sintonian September 17, 2010 4:49 PM BST
not happy with the draw now Laugh
Report Clown's Pocket September 17, 2010 5:27 PM BST
Can someone pick holes in Evens and Odds' chances please?
Report boy wonder 07 September 17, 2010 6:14 PM BST
we all have different opinions but nov to go 12lb better off for just over 2lengths taking in to account riders claim
Report PFtrader September 17, 2010 10:37 PM BST
Even split of pace low (stalls 2,3,4 and 7) and high (stalls 18,21,25 and 27) by my reckoning so those in the middle are going to have to choose a side.

Based on the last few days you would want to go high though wouldn't you ?

Hope Mr Makin takes note
Report SOULDANCER September 19, 2010 7:41 AM BST
Well done, Stevie Gerrard and Fela Kuti, Dettori with a double handfull.
Report PFtrader September 19, 2010 9:01 PM BST
Just back from Ayr

Well done Redford backers, couldn't see it myself but Dandy Nicholls is a genius when it comes to sprinters.

One of these days I am going to learn
Report 1st time poster September 20, 2010 7:32 AM BST
14,s ,if by learning you mean backing all his runners dont beat yourself up,even the trainer and stable jock got it wrong
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