Nassau stakes - Midday @ 3/1

dont think snow fairys in sariska or middays class. midday win this

if she runs think your right and dont see any reason why she wouldnt run.

Decent effort trying to give sarsika weight at york.

Snow Fairy does look class to me and could well be in the same league but she isnt running by the look of things.

cant get the 3's so 11/4 will have to do for me. Reckon she will be under 2/1 next saturday.

Stacelita for me. On lines through Da Rey Mi, Sariska and Board Meeting she has the beating of Midday who probably prefers 12f instead of 10f. Whereas Stacelita is a 10f horse. I know Miday won over 10f here last year but the ground was very soft if not heavy.

brigust midday is known as a fast ground horse the day last year that you speak of was a very strange day if you remember the rain arrived just as racing was about to begin and it absolutely lashed down most of the day making the ground soft . the strange thing is that fast ground horses won every race i have a thing that when it rains on the day and during racing the ground is actually changing as they are racing on it and fast ground horses seem to do well in these circumstances although im not sure why.

won on firm ground over 10 at the breeders cup as well.

she is defo a fast ground horse geton but im not sure why a lot of fast ground horses ran so well that day on soft ground.

the other notable fast ground horse that won that day was zacinto .

just want to know if she is definately running then going in full steam.

and rosanara isnt even in the dec's according to the RP site yet is 3rd fav on bf

try and check the weather forecast geton the 2 french fillys like to get there toe in if it comes up fast midday looks nailed on

yeah the 5 day forecast is good.

not sure whether to wait for the 5 day decs tomorrow but got a feeling the 3/1 wont be around when they are thru.

want to know if Henry has said if she is running in it as been off since may

Fast ground, are you serious? She won't run unless there is rain and then they will go too quick for her. She was staying on in the Oaks and last time out.
The only way Stacelita doesn't win is if she doesn't run. If they confirm her running then I think Rosanara (not been supplemented yet)will stay at home. The 4/1 on offer is my  idea of a good price. She has the beating of Midday on form anyway. And she led in the Arc 2 out only to find the trip too far.

if its fast stacelitta probably wont run imo

Do really not think she will run unless they have rain?

I would guess this has been the target for some time after winning the race last year. And altho Cecil said she didnt like the fast ground at York it was still a solid effort, she has won group one on Firm ground and bolted up on good to firm ground at lingfield.

Stacelita on the otherhand has never run on good to firm ground and has to travel over from france for the privilege. I would say she is more unlikely to line up than Midday at this point with the forecast the way it is.

You may be right Geton, but they seldom get fast ground in France and she did run against Goldikova on fastish ground first time out. Also she has lots of speed so I don't think a faster surface will inconvenience her, unlike Midday. I think Midday is more a grinder than Stacelita and I hope they both turn up.

they seldom get fast ground in france = clueless .

Excuse me Mr Preacher man. No need to be rude.
Perhaps you can answer the following :
Goldikova ran 13 times in France and the fastest going was good.
Stacelita has run 9 times and the fastest going was good.
Montjue ran 10 times and ditto.
Youmzain ran 7 times and ditto.
Zarkava ran 7 times and ditto.

Just a coincidence eh?

note the comment about not running midday on firm ground at Goodwood below

Midday has been pleasing trainer Henry Cecil on the gallops ahead of her bid to retain her Blue Square Nassau Stakes title at Goodwood a week on Saturday.

Last year's race was the filly's first success at Group One level after placing in both the Epsom and Irish Oaks, and she went on to give Cecil one of the finest moments of his incredible career in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf.

Midday has only been seen once since then, taking on her old Oaks foe Sariska in the Middleton Stakes at York in May, where she was beaten just under two lengths.

"Midday worked very well this morning and is on target for the Nassau Stakes then on to the Yorkshire Oaks," the trainer told www.henrycecil.com.

"I wouldn't want to run at Goodwood if the ground is firm as we also have the Yorkshire Oaks to think about."

True enough.

However there must be a chance that HC will be very anxious for a follow-up win. The alternative, crossing swords with Snow Fairy, is a good deal less attractive IMO even though others on this thread feel she is inferior to Midday. I dont. No way.

Does anyone recall similar comments about Twice Over's participation in the Eclipse? Mr Cecil can be very persuasive when decisions as to how much watering is needed are made. Against that in this instance we are looking at the end of a long meeting which might be a bit problematic.

its not going to be firm anyway is it. been a bit of rain about the last week or so and at the end of the day he ran her at york in may and it was like a road that day. And of course firm ground at santa anita.

Look at the stats for Goodwood. With Seamus Buckley at the helm, fast ground is as likely as Alan Berry being champion trainer.

I hope both Midday and Stacelita both turn up. I would not like Rosanara to be supplemented because it would skew the probabilities too much. In a straight fight between M and S I would definitely go for the latter.

ive backed midday now so hope both the french horses stay at home. Not really the attitude of the purest racing fan i know but profit has to come first.

gl anyway

Well said, geton. We all like a good race but deep down like collecting our winnings more. And that comes from someone who backed Massa at 35's. I did lay off to get my stake back but that's not the point. The winnings could have gone anywhere.

Thought someone might have pointed this out but they don't have a firm description in France, so even if the ground is very quick it is still called good on the Racing Post site. They definitely race on quick ground over there, let's remember Canford Cliffs getting jarred up in the Morny last year, for example.

I understand where you are coming from Ben and I'm sure they must get fast ground in France. That is why I don't mind backing horses with French form when they run on fast over here.
The Canford Cliffs point I'm not too sure about. Some say he drifted away from the action and ran up the rail where the ground was slowest. If I remember rightly the sprint that day was won by an English horse at a big price who took the large majority of the field up the middle.
The ground at the Curragh for the Irish Guineas was like a road but that didn't stop RH running CC or him winning.
Trainer's claims about firm going are often meaningless and only aimed at Clerks of the course to ensure they water enough.

Hannon issues ground concerns for Canford bid
By Racingpost.com staff 6:56PM 12 JUL 2010

RICHARD Hannon has warned that very fast ground could rule his Abu Dhabi Irish 2,000 Guineas and St James's Palace Stakes winner Canford Cliffs out of the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood on July 28.

Hannon has also stated that stablemate Paco Boy is likely to contest the Prix Jacques Le Marois next, while plans have not been decided for Dick Turpin.



The trainer said: "Canford Cliffs has got a bit burly, I'd say and he is going to need some work this week. We wouldn't want it very firm at Goodwood. We took him to France for the Morny and he came back jarred to hell. They hadn't put any water on and the ground was rough and firm.

"The hill didn't help him at Newmarket either but now he settles, he has a lovely turn of foot and has made up into a proper racehorse."



I can safely say Hannon isn't lying, the horse didn't run again that season after, whatever you say they have firm ground in France, trust me on that.

Ben, on the day Richard Hannon said 'He had every chance. Maybe it was a disadvantage racing on the rail but it was disappointing after his run at Ascot'.

Two things: First no mention of the going and Second why disadvantaged running up the rail because if the ground was like a road surely there would be no advantage or disadvantage in such a very small field.
Of course I'm not saying he is lying but trainers are always saying 'too much water' or 'not enough water' and then run anyway. I would say also that if CC was as jarred up as stated why risk him on lightning fast ground in Ireland this early in the season?

Fair enough if that's your view on that particular example but you do get fast ground in France, best of luck assuming it's always good like here.

I'm not confident which view is rock solid Ben and I never made any of the statements to cloud the issue. Of course they race on fast ground in France but they do water more than we do.
And it was you who first brought up the issue of underfoot conditions for Stacelita. Best of luck with Midday anyway, just have a small saver on Stacelita just to make sure. I will be doing it the other way round.

Was it? Only thing I know about Stacelita is she doesn't stay 1m4f.
I'm not sure I'm betting on the race yet either, not even looked through the entries! Good luck with your picks though :)

french going descriptions .
soft = good to soft
good to soft = good
good = good to firm or firm.
they race on fast ground most of the time in france.

Rosanara supplemented! b u g g e r!

yeah saw that yesterday.

looks like your one will be staying at home now

No, I think mine still runs with Soumillon riding it just complicates matters punting wise.
A potential 2 horse race has now become a 3 horse race. However I think the older horse's form is much stronger. I didn't really want to pay good money to find out.

doesnt sound like we will have a problem with the ground anyway

Rumoush holds some appeal to me at first glance

If you've backed Rumoush, ben, you may want to think about laying some back.  She's been supplemented into a G3 at Deauville on Saturday, which looks a soft race and a good oppo for her to regain the winning thread before stepping up again.  Must be doubts she heads to Goodwood?

that is interesting headmaster.

where did u read that? im looking for the story

It's in the Goldikova Delights Head story on the RP site. Rather typically, they've lead with the non-story while the real one's screaming at them two paragraphs from the end. 

Having said all that, the Deauville supp seems to have coincided with a mini-plunge on here for the Nassau?

very interesting isnt it.

does it say how much it cost them?

looked when i first read your post and there was 55 quid trying to back at 10.5.

Now up to 125 @ 10.5.

my head tells me to lay it all but i have a feeling there could be sharper minds at work here

Cheers HM, Tregoning said about that before the Finjaan race yesterday, said they were going to decide at declaration time but wanted that option at Deauville. I'm waiting anyway although I think Blue Sq are nrnb for those who want to back her

I'd be off to Deuville with her.  Just what the horse needs before the big auatumn targets imo.  Like you say, though, that market move makes you think twice....although if they're definitely off to Goodwood that's a spectacular waste of money (E4,800) only 24hrs before Goodowood decs?

..excuse the rather alarming typos there!

yeah right i know these people have money to burn that is as close as your going to get to literally sending it up in smoke.

going to france

Yep - off to France confirmed.

Will Rosanara get on the plane? Didn't when I backed her last time.

possibly should have take a bit out of Rumoush after all.

brigust, they are going via the Tunnel with her.

Excuse me Mr Preacher man. No need to be rude.
Perhaps you can answer the following :
Goldikova ran 13 times in France and the fastest going was good.
Stacelita has run 9 times and the fastest going was good.
Montjue ran 10 times and ditto.
Youmzain ran 7 times and ditto.
Zarkava ran 7 times and ditto.

Just a coincidence eh?

Like Stacelita here. No worries about pace dual Barshiba to act as pacemaker, Stacelita cruising behind in second. Barshiba to be out speeded by Stacelita furlong out and bye bye. First run in France this year never put in race came home in own time; nice prep; Next time out won cozily in Group 3 giving away Group 1 penalty; been target all season; ground should be fine (good) I believe Stacelita has best turn of foot in the race and pace set up and track will suit. Good luck all

All over Midday, every last penny of my account on her. I'd say a fair few around newmarket will do the same tomorrow and could go off a good bit shorter than the 9/4 currently available.

C'MON MIDDAY!!!

midday nailed on as long as seamus doesnt overwater the 2 french fillys need bags of cut.

Midday 79 days off track
Longest break for prev winners has been Epsom Derby (56 days)
All six older winners had at least two runs current season.
Jaqueline Quest didn't run up to expectations today either.

Heart ruling head here...

All-in on Stacey

I'm with the French duo.

Heart really isn't ruling anything.

Henry's last 2 big runners, Twice over and Lord Shanakill are prime example's of what i just said. I backed them at 5/2 and 8/1 the day before the race and went off 11/8 & 13/2 i think.

I reckon the same could happen with Midday. The she's been off track a few day's longer than previous winners??? So what! Are those previous winners in the race?

Get on the 9/4, even if ye want a free bet out of it!!

the french have this in the bag now the rain has come.

Struggling with this, but can anyone name me the last foreign trained winner of a group race at Goodwood? Unless the French/foreign jockeys have plenty of experience at Goodwood, reckon the uniqueness of the course is a massive obstacle to them.

whatever rain arrived will have to have been serious to make much of a dent.  however it is probably good anyway.
antara needs it good and ran well over 8f on fast at ascot. a 117 filly who could win this with a few pounds improvement. probably a 10/1 shot though.

its got to be almost soft at goodwood now what with all the watering followed by that deluge this morning.

I am 10 miles from the course.

We have had light rain (stopped a couple of hours ago) but definitely no deluge.

i couldnt hear nick luck talking on the telly for the noise of the rain battering down behind him.

10 mile lol.

crazy seens with the watering.

Stacey all the way now.

only times she's lost is in the Arc and first time out this season.

Cecil didn't want fast ground for Midday as she will be going for the Yorkshire Oaks also. I think she will win this.

ROSANARA cant trust soumillon on the other one.

good grief, unbelievable scenes! I thought for sure he'd gone too early. What price in running?

thanks boys

really helpful thread

strange finish though!

did look beat

amazing scenes

4 mills of rain apparently.

Some deluge.

in running layers must wait all day for one of these

for around 5 seconds it just looked totally beat

what a champion

pure class.

Geton

you got a sp?

did you trade off in running ????

or you got a cheeky nibble at 90's  ;)

Well done Ben and Geton. I thought St had it won but the winner was too good. As I said I did have a saver on the winner but never mind it was such a good race.

Should be a cracker against Snow Fairy at York.

nah didnt trade in-running. very rarely do but did have a bit of a heart attack when started idling.

on at 11/4.

nice horse

Rosanara ran a real stinker - maybe there was something wrong. Certainly not an endorsement of the Sarafina form.

I personally think Midday has improved a little and has got lazy too. I am of the view that she should be favourite to beat Snow Fairy.

Yes I think she had a lot in hand over the second. Can't remember seeing a race quite like that one before. Midday looked like running away with it, stopped and looked certain to be beaten, then rallied and won quite cosily!

snow fairy v midday looks a cracker.

i certainly wont be getting involved tho.

I dont know what else is going to run but I would guess Snow Fairy 6/5 Midday 2/1. The rest any price you like.

midday far superior to snow fairy on what ive seen anyway!!we shall see!

I would have Midday ahead of Snow Fairy in the betting too provided the ground is no worse than good

- 3 year old form in the UK this year is gash and SF is best of a bad bunch
- Midday's season looks to have been geared towards Breeders Cup F&M race in November so you would hope she will come on for the Goodwood race.

No way midday would/will be fav to beat SF.

Oaks and very impressive irish oaks winner. Bookmakers always make 3yo's with good classic form favourites over the older horses.

Im not saying SF will win or even that she should be favourite but im almost certain she will be.

And i do agree about the 3yo's this year they do look poor and as i've said before maybe even on this thread i'm keen to take the vast majority of them on but Snow Fairy is very nice horse.

A great race but not one i would want to get involved in.

I agree with geton.

Having foolishly missed the boat with Snow Fairy in Ireland I will just be watching.

i didnt really take into account sariska and dar re mi both running but looks like snow fairy will be favourite over midday wrongly or rightly.

actually think Sariska would be my favourite